AFL 2022 AFL GRAND FINAL.

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Time for people to get carded.
People who come here to post bets after the fact will get a free one week holiday.
 
GROTTO said:
Fritsch came close to be on here, lol.

15 - Christian Petracca, Melbourne
10 - Bayley Fritsch, Melbourne
3 - Clayton Oliver, Melbourne
1 - Christian Salem, Melbourne
1 - Caleb Daniel, Western Bulldogs
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Exactly - kicked the most in a granny in close to 20 years and still couldn't get within 5 votes of a star mid
 
Goal kicking mids seem the way to go, Warner/Parker & smokey is Rowbottom for the swans.

Who would it be for Geelong? Danger is obvious, Duncan/Close if they get disposals? Possibly Tuohy if he can snag a goal?
 

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iluvparis said:
I'm just going to leave this here so you can all see the long list of absolute battlers who have Normed up on GF day
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Spot on Paris, keep it simple. It's very rare to find a winner outside a team's 3-4 'stars'.

I'm all in on Parker $12 B365. Mills is also a clear standout for the Swans. Heeney is a skirt and goes missing in the big games.

For the Cats, it's a little more blurred as after Danger there's two key forwards and an intercepting half back who you would consider to be Geelong's top echelon.
 
FFB1 said:
Anyone punting on the Norm Smith (outright, no multis) and not backing them on Betfair is doing it wrong.
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With all due to respect to Betfair, there isn that much of a price difference for the long shots. For me odds of 151 or 101 , t the end of day percentage wise its not much difference in terms of winning the prize (151 implying 0.66% chance of winning, 101 implying 0.99% chance of winning)

Eg Florent 160 on Betfair, Florent 151 at TAB

Henry 120 on Betfair, Henry 101 at TAB

Logan 110 on Betfair (now), Logan 101 at TopSport

But I get your point, those small increments can make a difference in terms of P&L during the course of a year. Think its where the short priced favourites, exchanges have much better odds if your into that thing....Parker 14.50 on the exchange, and about 2/3rds of the value at TAB.
 
IKnowtheDog said:
Considering he won it on a countback with Jason Gram you could argue Paul Chapman the luckiest.
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Chapman had an utterly outstanding game and kicked the match winner.

JJ shanked 35 kicks all over the ground
 
113% Betfair at the moment, will start plenty less than that. And I’m pretty sure (not certain) you can back and lay in play too; certainly could for the Brownlow. Haven’t looked at the market % for e.g. TAB cos no chance going near them, but hazard a guess it would be high.
 
FFB1 said:
113% Betfair at the moment, will start plenty less than that. And I’m pretty sure (not certain) you can back and lay in play too; certainly could for the Brownlow. Haven’t looked at the market % for e.g. TAB cos no chance going near them, but hazard a guess it would be high.
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Yes market goes in play for live betting during the game
 

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FFB1 said:
113% Betfair at the moment, will start plenty less than that. And I’m pretty sure (not certain) you can back and lay in play too; certainly could for the Brownlow. Haven’t looked at the market % for e.g. TAB cos no chance going near them, but hazard a guess it would be high.
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Did it for TAB last night, 138.58% margin.

With TopSport, their margins were 138.10%
 
For me I could shop around and get the best odds.

Its a bit like going to the supermarket. You see a bottle of coke , one place sells it for $2.00, the other place is closer to home and sell its for $2.50. Im not the type of person to run around and save 50 cents if its a hike to get the best price. Not sure if thats the greatest example but I think you guys get the gist.

Alot of odds are just instinct and generally I just back what I perceive as value.

I asked the Smarkets Betting Exchange on their Live chat, why their odds went from 300 to 500, with no increment somewhere in between like how Betfair do. Their response was along the lines of the percentage of that occurring is 0.33% to 0.20% , its a very small amount. I think the point they were trying to get to me was its a very 'fine or small margin' and wasnt something they were going to change for the time being. Alot of their golf markets for tournaments go from : 280, 290, 300, 500 then 1000. At the end of the day , lets be honest if you back a winner at odds of 100+ , you should be feeling pretty pleased with yourself either way.
 
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Have liked Danger all week but 7s is short, wonder if we can get some pointsbet elite odds to bump that up. If Sydney get up I don’t mind Blakey as a Smokey @51s stands out, if he gets enough of it and uses it well.

Happy grand final week lads
 
swilly said:
Have liked Danger all week but 7s is short, wonder if we can get some pointsbet elite odds to bump that up. If Sydney get up I don’t mind Blakey as a Smokey @51s stands out, if he gets enough of it and uses it well.

Happy grand final week lads
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In the words of Charles Barkley, if my auntie had stones she'd be my uncle
 
120 something Grand Finals and yet still to have one decided with a kick after the Siren...I'd say were due...but then again so's Jesus.
Wonder if any betting sites will offer a after the Siren result?.
 
Peter Matera bagged 5 goals on the wing for West Coast in 1992.

I sort of equate him to a bit of Chad Warner of 2022, a lesser version of Andrew McLeod in 97-98.
 
And I will admit Andrew McLeod was probably my favourite Crows player of all time, ahead of Modra. Bit of a shame Modra never got to make a Grand Final with the 97-98 teams.

If there was betting in those days on Norm, (not being a punter back then), McLeod would probably have started fav or 2nd favourite for sure.

Matera probably around the same odds as a Chad Warner. (back in 92). Eagles had a pretty much a state based squad in the early 90s and their top 10-12 players were very good. Geelong too had : Ablett, Brownlow, Stoneham , Hocking to name a few. Was no real clear favourite if you were to have a pick on a Norm Smith Medallist.
 
NYRB said:
And I will admit Andrew McLeod was probably my favourite Crows player of all time, ahead of Modra. Bit of a shame Modra never got to make a Grand Final with the 97-98 teams.

If there was betting in those days on Norm, (not being a punter back then), McLeod would probably have started fav or 2nd favourite for sure.

Matera probably around the same odds as a Chad Warner. (back in 92)
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No way Mcleod starts favourite in 97, St Kilda were supposed to dominate that Grand Final hence crows were paying $3.40 to beat st kilda according to TABS historical grand final odds, Robert Harvey coming off Brownlow medals would be favourite and then the likes of Nathan Burke, Darren Jarman, Shaun Rehn, Ben Hart comfortably in front of Mcleod I'm certain. It wasn'y really until the 97 finals series Mcleod came into his own.

Even 98 North were heavy favourites I would have thought the likes of Carey, Stevens would be favourites
 
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AFL 2022 AFL GRAND FINAL.

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