AFL 2022 AFL Round 1
- Thread starter balmainforever
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Have jumped on this as well
I'm expecting gold coast midfield to kill west coasts so I'm going to be betting accordingly. Gold coast beat both Geelong and port in the pre season and they missed a lot of shots against Geelong. The ones of value I like are
Ben ainsworth, listed in the forward pocket. Kicked 4 in one of the practice matches.
2+ $2.75
3+ $6
4+ $21 @pb
Touk miller kicked 2 in one of the praccies and he's paying
1+ $2
2+ $6
Ben ainsworth, listed in the forward pocket. Kicked 4 in one of the practice matches.
2+ $2.75
3+ $6
4+ $21 @pb
Touk miller kicked 2 in one of the praccies and he's paying
1+ $2
2+ $6
Think we may need to have a chat about bankroll management/unit sizes around here. Seeing people drop 10+ units on a single player's goal markets, a bankroll is supposed to be made up of 100 units. Putting over 10% of your bankroll on one player's performance just isn't smart. So not sure if people around here really understand how units work.
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the guys doing that are kids
gurantee their 1u bet is $5 or $10 lmao.
Yeh just checked it out. Shoulder. I’ve had my round derailed by injuries so far. Bontempelli, Prestia, Duursma, Rich, Berry have all suffered injuries this round. At the stage of getting injured they were all comfortably on track to win my bet. It happens, just frustrating when it’s round one and so many of them
I roll with a fairly aggressive staking system I’d say, but 1 unit is very strictly 1% of my bankroll and I almost never bet more than 5units on one outcome. That includes AGS, 2+, 3+
rwandandream
Cancelled
- Sep 23, 2018
- 48
- 79
- AFL Club
- Gold Coast
Putting over 10% of your bankroll on one player's performance is smart if the price is ****ed.
Kelly criterion - Wikipedia
Kelly Criterion Calculator - Australia Sports Betting
This Kelly criterion calculator determines a stake based on the odds and the probability that the selection will win. Lay betting & refunds are supported.
Think we may need to have a chat about risk appetite and risk tolerance around here. Seeing people drop 1 unit on a single player's goal markets, a bankroll is supposed to be making a profit. Putting up to 1% of your bankroll on one player's performance just isn't worth the effort. So not sure if people around here really understand how risk appetite works.
rwandandream
Cancelled
- Sep 23, 2018
- 48
- 79
- AFL Club
- Gold Coast
Considering he has kicked 3+ in 4/36 career games, I wouldn't say its that wacky. BOL.
It's the fact that he's way shorter odds for 3+ AND Hawthorn to win, than just to kick 3 regardless of the result that's wacky.
rwandandream
Cancelled
- Sep 23, 2018
- 48
- 79
- AFL Club
- Gold Coast
Fair. TAB uses a 3rd party provider for their SGM product, so their SGM doesn't actually use the displayed single odds.
Darcy Macpherson AGS @ $3.5 pb - 82% forward time in the practice match. Was very unlucky not to kick one. Gold Coast will have a stack of inside 50's today... just need one to bounce his direction.
tripple1zero
Team Captain
Dropping 28 units on the goal lines of 2 players on debut is a lot of risk tolerance!
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Today I'm taking:
Tmitch for most possies G1 + either stephenson or Thomas for most goals
Crouch most possies G1 + either Lobb, Henry or sonny walters most goals.
Touk most possies G1 (though i think rowell and fiorini are value too) + williams most goals
Tmitch for most possies G1 + either stephenson or Thomas for most goals
Crouch most possies G1 + either Lobb, Henry or sonny walters most goals.
Touk most possies G1 (though i think rowell and fiorini are value too) + williams most goals
2u - Thomas over 20.5 disposals - $1.95 - PointsBet
When looking for break out years it’s always good to look at how they finished the year. Thomas spent his first three years building his engine and frame whilst spending most of his time in a forward role with bursts through the midfield. In Thomas’ back end of 2021 he saw a rise in midfield time, this led to him clearing this total in 5 of his las 7 games. Had the third most CBAs of any North player across both preseason games and will feature heavily in their midfield mix this year.
2.5u - Greenwood 20+ disposals - $1.85 - 365
Was one of the more interesting stories in the off season, but Greenwood now finds himself home at the Kangaroos. Looks like he is going to provide the grunt and muscle for this young midfield and should see a lot of time in there. When playing consistently through the midfield, he should average this comfortably.
2.5u - Coleman-Jones AGS - $1.85 - UniBet
The big fella made a smart move for his career last year after being stuck behind Lynch and Riewoldt for majority of it and made the move to the Roos. When given opportunity he kicked 11 goals from 7 games last season and proved that he’s got what it takes to play AFL. Expecting big things over the next few seasons.
1.5u - Crouch 30+ disposals - $1.90 - TopSport
Has been very heavily managed to get to this point, crows didn’t take any risks on him last year when he was probably able to feature late in the season, instead the focus was getting himself right for this season. Didn’t looks to have skipped a beat in preseason, he had a team high CBAs and disposals vs the Power off just 71% TOG. Expecting that TOG to improve and him to feature heavily at stoppages.
2.5u - Smith 20+ disposals - $1.80 - PointsBet
Will take a large chunk of kick ins and see plenty of the ball out of half back and then on the wing in bursts.
When looking for break out years it’s always good to look at how they finished the year. Thomas spent his first three years building his engine and frame whilst spending most of his time in a forward role with bursts through the midfield. In Thomas’ back end of 2021 he saw a rise in midfield time, this led to him clearing this total in 5 of his las 7 games. Had the third most CBAs of any North player across both preseason games and will feature heavily in their midfield mix this year.
2.5u - Greenwood 20+ disposals - $1.85 - 365
Was one of the more interesting stories in the off season, but Greenwood now finds himself home at the Kangaroos. Looks like he is going to provide the grunt and muscle for this young midfield and should see a lot of time in there. When playing consistently through the midfield, he should average this comfortably.
2.5u - Coleman-Jones AGS - $1.85 - UniBet
The big fella made a smart move for his career last year after being stuck behind Lynch and Riewoldt for majority of it and made the move to the Roos. When given opportunity he kicked 11 goals from 7 games last season and proved that he’s got what it takes to play AFL. Expecting big things over the next few seasons.
1.5u - Crouch 30+ disposals - $1.90 - TopSport
Has been very heavily managed to get to this point, crows didn’t take any risks on him last year when he was probably able to feature late in the season, instead the focus was getting himself right for this season. Didn’t looks to have skipped a beat in preseason, he had a team high CBAs and disposals vs the Power off just 71% TOG. Expecting that TOG to improve and him to feature heavily at stoppages.
2.5u - Smith 20+ disposals - $1.80 - PointsBet
Will take a large chunk of kick ins and see plenty of the ball out of half back and then on the wing in bursts.
- Dec 2, 2017
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Why are North not favourites?
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I can’t honestly pick between them.
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
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North want good draft picks.
buggered if I can find him in the market, but gold coast player Alex davies kicked 2 goals in the praccy match. He only played one game last year where he kicked 2 behinds so it shows that hes not shy at trying to kick a goal.
Pointsbet have him for 1+ $3
but they dont have him in the multiple goal kicker section.
Neds have him but their odds are trash, like $1.68 for 1 or something like that, and $4.25 for 2
Pointsbet have him for 1+ $3
but they dont have him in the multiple goal kicker section.
Neds have him but their odds are trash, like $1.68 for 1 or something like that, and $4.25 for 2
- Sep 25, 2013
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Max lynch is like $7/23 for 2/3 on pointsbet good odds compared to others, something to consider
did he hit the scoreboard in the praccy?
i was worried cause hes up against goldstein, im betting goldy will drag him down back and try to kick goals on the new bloke
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