AFL 2022 AFL Round 21

[balmainforever]

 

[Corn Cobbers]

 

[HTPunter]

Early play

Nank without Soldo gone 19, 20, 14, 21, 13, 12 this year.

So like the $4.25 on B365 for 20. 2/6 without Soldo + a 19, is 6/19 for the year overall with 2x 19s. So think it's value.

 

[dontlimitme]

watched the game and the melkshake was playing pretty much exclusively forward last week

kicked 1.3

on him for 3/4/5 on SB @ 9.5/34/181

 

[NonPhixion]

watched the game and the melkshake was playing pretty much exclusively forward last week

kicked 1.3

on him for 3/4/5 on SB @ 9.5/34/181

View attachment 1462931

staying far away from May, i like it. Tailed

 

[Jugada]

Early play

Nank without Soldo gone 19, 20, 14, 21, 13, 12 this year.

So like the $4.25 on B365 for 20. 2/6 without Soldo + a 19, is 6/19 for the year overall with 2x 19s. So think it's value.

Might be a good play still but using the 19s as an almost win isn't a smart way to analyse if you're not also using the 20s as an almost loss

 

[dontlimitme]

Amartey 3/4/5 @ 8/26/101 @ SB
Reid 3/4/5 @ 4.3/10.5/26 @ SB

mckay should take buddy, heeney will prob be out of control like he usually is but he's shorter so value bets on the other talls vs NORF at marvel

 

[Geeves Train]

Any chance Himmelberg plays forward on the weekend?

McVeigh started him there last week and he kicked a goal Q1 and had heck all supply as Swans dominated.

If (and it is a big IF) he was to play forward again his odds on Tab are HUGE, especially in what should be a high scoring game at home
2+ $6.00 ($2.60 bet 365)
3+ $26 ($6.50)
4+ $51 ($20)

Worth some small bets?

 

[HTPunter]

Might be a good play still but using the 19s as an almost win isn't a smart way to analyse if you're not also using the 20s as an almost loss

You're right about the overall analysis but I think in terms of games without Soldo it shows he gets amongst it a bit more. I think if you get 4.25 odds and they fall 1 short it's a reasonable bet.

Might be a good play still but using the 19s as an almost win isn't a smart way to analyse if you're not also using the 20s as an almost loss

 

[HTPunter]

Papley will have another chance at going big against North.

 

[Nuggetz]

Any chance Himmelberg plays forward on the weekend?

McVeigh started him there last week and he kicked a goal Q1 and had * all supply as Swans dominated.

If (and it is a big IF) he was to play forward again his odds on Tab are HUGE, especially in what should be a high scoring game at home
2+ $6.00 ($2.60 bet 365)
3+ $26 ($6.50)
4+ $51 ($20)

Worth some small bets?

He started forward and then moved back

 

[X_box_X]

You're right about the overall analysis but I think in terms of games without Soldo it shows he gets amongst it a bit more. I think if you get 4.25 odds and they fall 1 short it's a reasonable bet.

Why won't Soldo play?

 

[Atavistic]

I'm thinking about Cumberland. 4@12.50 at SB, 5@34 at SB. 6@100 at 365.

Can he back it up?

Also, Hollands' odds have come out a fair bit at SB. $2.05 for a goal against Hawthorn.

 

[Man of leisure]

I'm thinking about Cumberland. 4@12.50 at SB, 5@34 at SB. 6@100 at 365.

Can he back it up?

Also, Hollands' odds have come out a fair bit at SB. $2.05 for a goal against Hawthorn.

Yeah Cumberland is a weapon. Played 3 full games and another where he came on as the sub and had 21 shots and kicked 11 goals. Should be Toby Greene odds playing this role in this team/game style and I’m not even kidding

 

[Atavistic]

Amartey 3/4/5 @ 8/26/101 @ SB
Reid 3/4/5 @ 4.3/10.5/26 @ SB

mckay should take buddy, heeney will prob be out of control like he usually is but he's shorter so value bets on the other talls vs NORF at marvel

Eight shots in the last two weeks for Reid makes him seem appealing vs Roos.

Edit: Reid is 4+@15 and 5+@51 at TAB

 

[Atavistic]

Yeah Cumberland is a weapon. Played 3 full games and another where he came on as the sub and had 21 shots and kicked 11 goals. Should be Toby Greene odds playing this role in this team/game style and I’m not even kidding

Brisbane must feel great about not matching your bid at the draft.

 

[BloodRet]

Spargo 90% forward time, started to hit the scoreboard with 2 goals after a massive dry patch. Had him 3 last game with Bedford out and he dropped a sitter for his 3rd but he seems to get more chances as the small forward. 2-4 @6.5, 21 pb, 79 sb

 

[The Brownlow Guru]

Bolton 3+ $6 (tab) looks value.

Have tailed S.Reid train.

 

[Atavistic]

Ben Ainsworth

9

Ben Ainsworth

Age

26

Ht

178cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

8.1

3star

HB

6.1

4star

M

3.5

4star

T

2.7

4star

CL

1.3

3star

D

12.8

3star

K

8.3

3star

HB

4.5

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.3

3star

CL

0.3

2star

D

13.6

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

6.8

5star

M

3.8

4star

T

3.4

5star

CL

0.8

3star

is $1.70 for a goal at TAB. Kicked 2 against Hawthorn last time. Pretty decent odds for him.

 

[Johanpetro]

James Stewart

17

James Stewart

Age

30

Ht

199cm

Wt

99kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.4

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

4.7

3star

M

4.1

4star

T

1.9

4star

MG

193.5

3star

No current season stats available

D

12.4

4star

K

7.0

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

0.8

3star

MG

200.4

4star

ags at $1.53. Rumours are he will be playing forward

 

[BloodRet]

Ben Ainsworth is $1.70 for a goal at TAB. Kicked 2 against Hawthorn last time. Pretty decent odds for him.

I really need to boot my tab account up next season. I need to file some annoying ID shit and fax it etc cos I haven’t used it in years they make it such a hassle. But from what I see on here early TAB odds can be great, like Ainsworth at that price that’s overs for sure.

 

[BloodRet]

Walters 2-4 @4.25, 13, 41 pb

Scored two of freos five goals against Melbourne. Better conditions and a roof now which he historically good under will help his chances even more.

 

[EFL Boy]

Anytimer multi @ TAB:

K. Pickett
B. Ainsworth
K. Langford
C. Weightman
J. Higgins
C. Dixon
S. Reid

$9.02

 

[balmainforever]

opening post now updated

 

[balmainforever]

Why won't Soldo play?

port have no rucks and you expect Richmond to play 2??