Really think pointsbet are wasting an opportunity not releasing their goal scorer markets until later in the week. My sportsbet account usually has about 87 pending bets by Wednesday night, and pointsbet are just sitting there twiddling their thumbs while us addicts are over at one of their competitors going all-in on a second gamer from North Melbourne.
AFL 2022 AFL Round 7
- Thread starter balmainforever
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Pointsbet is where it’s at this season
I was banned there a long time ago.... they even tried to take away my 5k bonus when I was 4/5k thru clearing it.... claiming I was a professional gambler.
They eventually gave it back once I told them I would contact the NT gaming commission.
Its not the coach
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Needs to be all of those odds as a 2nd gamer in a team that's only produced a haul of 3 goals or more three times this season.
Hopefully he's that diamond in the rough. I'm in
2+3+4+ @4.10, 13, 50.
Last day of Covid lockdown so been spending the afternoon trawling the markets. Got a bunch lined up with some nice trends and value spots appearing after 6 rounds.
1u - Qtrs multi - $10.25 - Ladbrokes
4u - Kelly 25+ disposals - $1.80 - TAB
1u - Kelly 30+ disposals - $4 - TAB
His disposal line in his return game in round 5 was 25.5, now after 2 games back and a 31 on the weekend we can still get a better line. At home, a win needed, against the Tigers who give up huge numbers. Great spot! Didn’t get to play them last year but had 26 in shortened qtrs in 2020. Hit 25+ in 12/17 last year. Is super strong at Optus Stadium going at 8/9 for 25+ (loss game in a return from injury) and 2/9 for 30+ last year.
2u - Baker 15+ disposals - $1.70 - SB
3/6 with the 3 losses being 14. Hit in 21/22 in 2021 so happy to roll the dice. Playing a slightly different role on the HFF this year but pushes up and wins his own ball.
2.5u - Will Brodie 25+ disposals - $1.85 - 365
Line was at 25.5 on the weekend which he cleared. Now 4/6 for 25+ and looking solid for Freo. Looking like opening at 25.5/26.5 so getting some value here. Went to more CBAs than any other Freo player on the weekend and has been in their top 3 all season. Ranked 12th in the comp for contested possessions so his hard work is important for the Dockers. Potential tag coming to Brayshaw which means he needs to step up even more.
3u - Adelaide 4th Qtr SU - $1.80 - Ladbrokes
Make sure you take the option that doesn’t have the tie. In the case of a draw youll at least still get some return. May end up having a bet on GWS to win a match (or portion of) but backing a trend here that’s appeared after 6 rounds. GWS are the only team yet to win a final quarter this season whilst the Crows are ranked 4th. On the weekend against a tough running Bulldogs side the crows actually looked to have more run in their legs in the final quarter, they lost the final quarter 3.4 to 4.0 (more scoring shots) but what made it more impressive is the strong wind they were kicking into at that point in the game. It seems as though fitness guru Burgess has had a huge impact on the crows and they’re running games out with confidence. The Giants were the 15th ranked 4th Qtr side last year so trend has solid history.
1u - Mitchell AGS - $3.25 - Ladbrokes
Good price on offer for Mitchell. Has kicked 2.4 this season and missed a few all together on the weekend. Is spending considerably more time forward than in previous years so worth a crack at the odds.
2.5u - Scrimashaw 20+ disposals - $1.70 - TAB
Is 3/6 on the season with one injured game, and landed on 19 on the weekend against the Swans who give up the least disposals in the comp. Gets involved in the kick ins, so having the premiers pile on a score against them might not be the worst thing for this bet. Had a success rate of 12/18 last year.
2.5u - Thomas 20+ disposals - $2.50 - TAB
Would’ve looked to bet around the $1.85 mark, but great price here. After the bye last year he went 20+ in 6/10 games for an average of 21 disposals a game. On natural progression alone he should bump his numbers up come seasons end.
2u - Lachie Young 15+ disposals - $1.90 - TAB
Benefited from Hall being out taking a large chunk of kick ins. Cleared in 3/6 this year now. Looks like North don’t mind him getting it on the outside too.
4u - Wines 30+ disposals - $1.90 - TAB
Discount his injured game he’s 3/4 this season with the loss being a 29. Last season was 17/24 on this hitting 36 disposals both times he played the Saints. Didn’t appear to have any lingering affects from his time off and got stuck back in.
3u - Gold Coast +13.5 - $1.80 - Dabble
Keen on the Suns here. Huge out with Grundy picking up a PCL injury last night and looking likely to miss. They will also lose some much needed height in the forward line with Krueger looking to require shoulder surgery. Against Essendon, Collingwood were statistically beaten, -4 scoring shots, -12 clearances -4 inside 50s, -9 contested possessions, -50 uncontested possessions, -8 marks inside 50. A lot of stats that are key metrics to winning a footy game. If it weren’t for the Pies kicking well above their own and the league conversion rate and 19 yo Ginnivan kicking 5.0 I’d doubt the Pies get across the line. Very unlikely to happen every week. With Elliot and Roughead still missing at either end, the pies are lacking serious firepower around the ground. The suns however are relatively full strength and will be looking to add Lukosius back to their side. They’ve arguably had one of the more tougher fixtures to date 4/6 top 8 sides so sitting 2-4 isn’t as bad as it looks. Comparatively Collingwood have faced 3/6 top 8 sides with their only win coming against the Saints (who looked awful) in round 1 when they were running at full strength. Gold Coast’s loss vs the Lions wasn’t awful, they ran with them for 3 quarters and inaccurate/accurate kicking lost the game for them and then got blown away late in junk time. Although losing the game, the Suns looked great in a lot of key stats. Parish caused huge problems for the Pies on the weekend and the game was almost lost when he went off with an ankle injury in the last quarter. Touk Miller is a player of similar stature to Parish and probably better run/spread who can have a similar impact against the Pies. No Grundy will be massive as the Suns midfield will look to gain first look at the footy as Witts should dominate the contest.
3u - Collingwood under 89.5 points - $1.87 - Ladbrokes
As mentioned above the Pies forward structure will take a big hit this week, with Krueger and Grundy out meaning Cameron will have to move into the ruck and they’ll likely be weakened in the forward line. Cox will likely come in but it’s been a long time since we’ve seen him dominate a game. The Suns have been quite sound defensively this year only allowing the Lions which is no shame against the top scoring side in the comp. This gives the Suns a 5/6 success rate on defending this line. Collins and Ballard have been a pillar in defence for the Suns this season playing on some of the best forwards in the comp. I believe these two have what it takes to keep Mihocek (best pies forward) at bay. Elliot still missing is a massive loss for the pies and as mentioned I can’t imagine Ginnivan having such a big impact again.
2u - Cameron 15+ disposals - $2.75 - 365
0.5u - Cameron 20+ disposals - $14 - 365
Price too good to ignore for someone that’ll spend most the game rucking now that Grundy is out.
4u - De Goey 25+ disposals - $2.20 - 365
Has attended the most CBAs of any Collingwood player this season. Line was up at 27.5/28.5 last year when he was playing less of a midfield role. Only 2/5 this year, but was 8/9 last year from round 13 onwards once he’d really transitioned into the midfield role. Suns currently giving up the third most disposals and most contested disposals in the comp. Good spot for Collingwood’s leading contested player.
2.5u - Will Powell 15+ disposals - $1.77 - SB
Went 16/22 last year and so far 4/6 on this season. Had 6 on the weekend against the Lions who are one of the tougher teams to pick up disposals, Collingwood a better match up.
2u - Ed Richards 15+ disposals - $1.85 - TAB
4/6 on the season. Before the weekend his only loss was a 14 disposal game. Crows are a tough match up for defenders so not a massive surprise on the unders. Gets a much better match up vs Essendon.
2u - Perkins AGS - $1.80 - 365
8.3 for the season and goals in 4/6. Looks set to be a gun and set to be a high scoring game.
2.5u - Rayner AGS - $1.80 - TAB
Big price on offer for this. Has kicked 4.7 this year and goals in 4/6. Kicked goals in 11/17 games in 2020 (shortened quarters) and has looked lively in each of his games. Across 2019 and 2020 when he kicked a goal he has kicked multiples in 45% of these games.
2u - Florent 15+ disposals - $1.51 - SB
1u - Florent 20+ disposals - $3.30 - SB
Florent’s disposal output has been a bit odd this year given his role in the team. Has hit 15+ in 3/6 and 20+ in 2/6 this year. Last year he hit 15+ in 21/23 and 9/23. Given natural progression and the role that he plays he should be a lot close to $1.80-$2 for 20+ and his disposal output has been down on where it should be. Tougher match up in the Lions but willing to take them on at the price. 15+ to breakeven.
1u - Qtrs multi - $10.25 - Ladbrokes
- Richmond 2nd Qtr SU
- Adelaide 4th Qtr SU
- Melb 1st Qtr SU, Melb 3rd Qtr SU
- Western Bulldogs 1st Qtr SU.
4u - Kelly 25+ disposals - $1.80 - TAB
1u - Kelly 30+ disposals - $4 - TAB
His disposal line in his return game in round 5 was 25.5, now after 2 games back and a 31 on the weekend we can still get a better line. At home, a win needed, against the Tigers who give up huge numbers. Great spot! Didn’t get to play them last year but had 26 in shortened qtrs in 2020. Hit 25+ in 12/17 last year. Is super strong at Optus Stadium going at 8/9 for 25+ (loss game in a return from injury) and 2/9 for 30+ last year.
2u - Baker 15+ disposals - $1.70 - SB
3/6 with the 3 losses being 14. Hit in 21/22 in 2021 so happy to roll the dice. Playing a slightly different role on the HFF this year but pushes up and wins his own ball.
2.5u - Will Brodie 25+ disposals - $1.85 - 365
Line was at 25.5 on the weekend which he cleared. Now 4/6 for 25+ and looking solid for Freo. Looking like opening at 25.5/26.5 so getting some value here. Went to more CBAs than any other Freo player on the weekend and has been in their top 3 all season. Ranked 12th in the comp for contested possessions so his hard work is important for the Dockers. Potential tag coming to Brayshaw which means he needs to step up even more.
3u - Adelaide 4th Qtr SU - $1.80 - Ladbrokes
Make sure you take the option that doesn’t have the tie. In the case of a draw youll at least still get some return. May end up having a bet on GWS to win a match (or portion of) but backing a trend here that’s appeared after 6 rounds. GWS are the only team yet to win a final quarter this season whilst the Crows are ranked 4th. On the weekend against a tough running Bulldogs side the crows actually looked to have more run in their legs in the final quarter, they lost the final quarter 3.4 to 4.0 (more scoring shots) but what made it more impressive is the strong wind they were kicking into at that point in the game. It seems as though fitness guru Burgess has had a huge impact on the crows and they’re running games out with confidence. The Giants were the 15th ranked 4th Qtr side last year so trend has solid history.
1u - Mitchell AGS - $3.25 - Ladbrokes
Good price on offer for Mitchell. Has kicked 2.4 this season and missed a few all together on the weekend. Is spending considerably more time forward than in previous years so worth a crack at the odds.
2.5u - Scrimashaw 20+ disposals - $1.70 - TAB
Is 3/6 on the season with one injured game, and landed on 19 on the weekend against the Swans who give up the least disposals in the comp. Gets involved in the kick ins, so having the premiers pile on a score against them might not be the worst thing for this bet. Had a success rate of 12/18 last year.
2.5u - Thomas 20+ disposals - $2.50 - TAB
Would’ve looked to bet around the $1.85 mark, but great price here. After the bye last year he went 20+ in 6/10 games for an average of 21 disposals a game. On natural progression alone he should bump his numbers up come seasons end.
2u - Lachie Young 15+ disposals - $1.90 - TAB
Benefited from Hall being out taking a large chunk of kick ins. Cleared in 3/6 this year now. Looks like North don’t mind him getting it on the outside too.
4u - Wines 30+ disposals - $1.90 - TAB
Discount his injured game he’s 3/4 this season with the loss being a 29. Last season was 17/24 on this hitting 36 disposals both times he played the Saints. Didn’t appear to have any lingering affects from his time off and got stuck back in.
3u - Gold Coast +13.5 - $1.80 - Dabble
Keen on the Suns here. Huge out with Grundy picking up a PCL injury last night and looking likely to miss. They will also lose some much needed height in the forward line with Krueger looking to require shoulder surgery. Against Essendon, Collingwood were statistically beaten, -4 scoring shots, -12 clearances -4 inside 50s, -9 contested possessions, -50 uncontested possessions, -8 marks inside 50. A lot of stats that are key metrics to winning a footy game. If it weren’t for the Pies kicking well above their own and the league conversion rate and 19 yo Ginnivan kicking 5.0 I’d doubt the Pies get across the line. Very unlikely to happen every week. With Elliot and Roughead still missing at either end, the pies are lacking serious firepower around the ground. The suns however are relatively full strength and will be looking to add Lukosius back to their side. They’ve arguably had one of the more tougher fixtures to date 4/6 top 8 sides so sitting 2-4 isn’t as bad as it looks. Comparatively Collingwood have faced 3/6 top 8 sides with their only win coming against the Saints (who looked awful) in round 1 when they were running at full strength. Gold Coast’s loss vs the Lions wasn’t awful, they ran with them for 3 quarters and inaccurate/accurate kicking lost the game for them and then got blown away late in junk time. Although losing the game, the Suns looked great in a lot of key stats. Parish caused huge problems for the Pies on the weekend and the game was almost lost when he went off with an ankle injury in the last quarter. Touk Miller is a player of similar stature to Parish and probably better run/spread who can have a similar impact against the Pies. No Grundy will be massive as the Suns midfield will look to gain first look at the footy as Witts should dominate the contest.
3u - Collingwood under 89.5 points - $1.87 - Ladbrokes
As mentioned above the Pies forward structure will take a big hit this week, with Krueger and Grundy out meaning Cameron will have to move into the ruck and they’ll likely be weakened in the forward line. Cox will likely come in but it’s been a long time since we’ve seen him dominate a game. The Suns have been quite sound defensively this year only allowing the Lions which is no shame against the top scoring side in the comp. This gives the Suns a 5/6 success rate on defending this line. Collins and Ballard have been a pillar in defence for the Suns this season playing on some of the best forwards in the comp. I believe these two have what it takes to keep Mihocek (best pies forward) at bay. Elliot still missing is a massive loss for the pies and as mentioned I can’t imagine Ginnivan having such a big impact again.
2u - Cameron 15+ disposals - $2.75 - 365
0.5u - Cameron 20+ disposals - $14 - 365
Price too good to ignore for someone that’ll spend most the game rucking now that Grundy is out.
4u - De Goey 25+ disposals - $2.20 - 365
Has attended the most CBAs of any Collingwood player this season. Line was up at 27.5/28.5 last year when he was playing less of a midfield role. Only 2/5 this year, but was 8/9 last year from round 13 onwards once he’d really transitioned into the midfield role. Suns currently giving up the third most disposals and most contested disposals in the comp. Good spot for Collingwood’s leading contested player.
2.5u - Will Powell 15+ disposals - $1.77 - SB
Went 16/22 last year and so far 4/6 on this season. Had 6 on the weekend against the Lions who are one of the tougher teams to pick up disposals, Collingwood a better match up.
2u - Ed Richards 15+ disposals - $1.85 - TAB
4/6 on the season. Before the weekend his only loss was a 14 disposal game. Crows are a tough match up for defenders so not a massive surprise on the unders. Gets a much better match up vs Essendon.
2u - Perkins AGS - $1.80 - 365
8.3 for the season and goals in 4/6. Looks set to be a gun and set to be a high scoring game.
2.5u - Rayner AGS - $1.80 - TAB
Big price on offer for this. Has kicked 4.7 this year and goals in 4/6. Kicked goals in 11/17 games in 2020 (shortened quarters) and has looked lively in each of his games. Across 2019 and 2020 when he kicked a goal he has kicked multiples in 45% of these games.
2u - Florent 15+ disposals - $1.51 - SB
1u - Florent 20+ disposals - $3.30 - SB
Florent’s disposal output has been a bit odd this year given his role in the team. Has hit 15+ in 3/6 and 20+ in 2/6 this year. Last year he hit 15+ in 21/23 and 9/23. Given natural progression and the role that he plays he should be a lot close to $1.80-$2 for 20+ and his disposal output has been down on where it should be. Tougher match up in the Lions but willing to take them on at the price. 15+ to breakeven.
- Sep 25, 2013
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Ben Hobbs 3, 4 @101, 1800 just cos
Its not the coach
Cancelled
- Apr 16, 2019
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Picked a few of your disposal picks out and chucked it in a multi
Scrimshaw 20+
Wines 30+
Thomas 20+
Powell 15+
De-Goey 25+
@16.92 SB
- Jun 16, 2018
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Could not agree with you more. Especially the bit about having about 87 pending bets by Wednesday night.
- Jun 16, 2018
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Two games for a combined 0 goals, 0 behinds, 0 goal assists, 4 inside fifties.
This has all the hallmarks of a Ziebell vs Sydney.
i.e. I say 'no thanks' and you guys make a killing on the long shot of the year.
- Jun 16, 2018
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Anybody taken a look at Rowell's heat map and CBA change since Swallow came back into the side?
If Rowell weren't such a poor shot on goal, the $12 / $80 / $376 for 2 / 3 / 4 would be mighty tempting...
If Rowell weren't such a poor shot on goal, the $12 / $80 / $376 for 2 / 3 / 4 would be mighty tempting...
Its not the coach
Cancelled
- Apr 16, 2019
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- #86
Kicked 2 goals in 3 consecutive games back in 2020, Then a couple of singles last year. And yeah had a few possessions in the forward 50 arc on the weekend.
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That's what I mean.
If he were almost any other high quality midfielder, with his heatmap last weekend, I'd be all over his odds.
Plenty of time forward and possessions inside 50.
Somehow just hasn't been kicking goals.
At those odds why wouldn't you look at AGS instead of multiples?
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TheBrownDog
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mouncey2franklin doesnt get out of bed to post bets unless its high double digit odds at least on offer.
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Cross Sport Multi
Max Strus 25+ Points v Atlanta Hawks in Game 5 today
Carlton v North Melbourne 28-30 Total Match Goals
Odds: $70.20 (Boosted from $65)
Max Strus 25+ Points v Atlanta Hawks in Game 5 today
Carlton v North Melbourne 28-30 Total Match Goals
Odds: $70.20 (Boosted from $65)
Its not the coach
Cancelled
- Apr 16, 2019
- 1,289
- 890
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Banned
- #93
Ask Mouncey2franklin he'd know
Its not the coach
Cancelled
- Apr 16, 2019
- 1,289
- 890
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Banned
- #94
Markets for Dee's v Hawks suspended, I wonda how many Dee's out for covid iso
This is an interesting question, especially with the Pittonet injury. Is Lewis Young worth an early spec at odds? Kicked a goal on the weekend, played a bit up forward for the Dogs last season.
2+,3+,4+
$21, $201, $1000
Bet365
Its not the coach
Cancelled
- Apr 16, 2019
- 1,289
- 890
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- #97
Bet365 still got Dee's Hawks market up, Is it worth a go on the Hawks @5.15 thinking there might the Dee's outs?
Good point. Never question the methods of the great man!
$5.50 at 365
Hitting the 32.5 line might be a better play then try and hit a middle if it comes in.
Quick look on Twitter looks like Jackson and Kosi Pickett are 2 that will miss
What I can gather atm is at least 3 players (all unknown at this stage) will miss the game. Gawn and Oliver trained today so you’d think it’s not them, but Petracca wasn’t at training.
