AFL 2022 Brownlow Medal

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anybody who posts bets after the count is over on Sunday without putting them up first WILL BE CARDED
 
Geeves Train said:
Are those taking Prestia through multis concerned about his hamstrings? Next week will be the first time since 2019 he plays 6 games in a row…
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Currently have him with a comfortable lead. Have attached him to some multis over the past month mostly due to value. Was $7 4 weeks ago, into $5, into $4 and now finally $2.50. Don't think I'd touch him right now at any shorter than $2.25.
 

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Would it be fair to say in determining the 3 votes are, not in any necessary order: Player Goals, Contested Possessions, Whether your team wins and Contested Marks are pretty important? Im trying to create a model that integrates those four factors as Im not a guy these days with a lot of time to sit down and watch all games. I do know in those tight games, no stats can help out predict those 'moments'. (ive pencilled a few that I will watch a bit later as the year goes on and in my spare time) I mean contested marks are a rarity these days, its becoming more an uncontested game than 20 years ago. Someone like a Gawn who can clunk 5 contested marks in a game, stands out as well and is very much in the reckoning for votes. But If I were to rate those 4 areas in terms of importance it would be : Goals > Team Winning > Contested Possessions > Contested Marks.

If you increase by scoring goals for me it stands out much more than scoring no goals. The game is different to what it was 25-30 years ago. Goals these days stand out like a beacon, just as a players appearance are as well. With the highest average for the forward in the comp this year being 3.09 Goals per game and the highest average in Contested mark being 2.73 marks per game, should we factor that into account that in an analysis as well? Contested mark can be just as spectacular as a goal in this day and age.

In 2021 AFL brownlow for the players that got the 3 Votes:
Averages: 1.52 goals Per Game, Contested Possessions: 12.56 per game
Median: 1 goal Per Game, Contested Possessions: 13 per game

1655899239982.png
(above correlation coefficient works out to be -0.32711)


If you take out the 0 goals, the correlation is even stronger. (-0.38118) So Im of the opinion goals especially from midfielders always stand out.


1655899813986.png


A 5 goal stand out in a winning team, is a chance to poll 3. But if you have multiple players kicking 5+ it obviously lessons the value of the performance. There was a game this year , where two players from Port Adelaide kicked 5+ against the Eagles.
 
NYRB said:
Would it be fair to say in determining the 3 votes are, not in any necessary order: Player Goals, Contested Possessions, Whether your team wins and Contested Marks are pretty important? Im trying to create a model that integrates those four factors as Im not a guy these days with a lot of time to sit down and watch all games. I do know in those tight games, no stats can help out predict those 'moments'. (ive pencilled a few that I will watch a bit later as the year goes on and in my spare time) I mean contested marks are a rarity these days, its becoming more an uncontested game than 20 years ago. Someone like a Gawn who can clunk 5 contested marks in a game, stands out as well and is very much in the reckoning for votes. But If I were to rate those 4 areas in terms of importance it would be : Goals > Team Winning > Contested Possessions > Contested Marks.

If you increase by scoring goals for me it stands out much more than scoring no goals. The game is different to what it was 25-30 years ago. Goals these days stand out like a beacon, just as a players appearance are as well. With the highest average for the forward in the comp this year being 3.09 Goals per game and the highest average in Contested mark being 2.73 marks per game, should we factor that into account that in an analysis as well? Contested mark can be just as spectacular as a goal in this day and age.

In 2021 AFL brownlow for the players that got the 3 Votes:
Averages: 1.52 goals Per Game, Contested Possessions: 12.56 per game
Median: 1 goal Per Game, Contested Possessions: 13 per game

View attachment 1430342
(above correlation coefficient works out to be -0.32711)


If you take out the 0 goals, the correlation is even stronger. (-0.38118) So Im of the opinion goals especially from midfielders always stand out.


View attachment 1430346


A 5 goal stand out in a winning team, is a chance to poll 3. But if you have multiple players kicking 5+ it obviously lessons the value of the performance. There was a game this year , where two players from Port Adelaide kicked 5+ against the Eagles.
Click to expand...
So many ways to tackle this problem. PhDs have been earnt for less.

I figure whatever method you use needs to account for the different player types - Key forward, forward, inside mid, outside mid, defender, key defender and rucks.

Set yourself an accuracy goal (60% of 3-votes right on previous years data?) and go from there.
 
Another 3 for Sam Walsh, he is coming like a steam train.
 

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Top 10 after Rd 15:

22 - Neale
21.5 - Brayshaw
20.5 - Oliver
18 - Cripps
16 - Petracca
14.5 - Walsh
14 - Miller
13 - Mills
12.5 - J. Cameron
12 - Crisp
 
Can someone give me a run down of their votes for Walsh over the season? Got so swept up with Cripps I can only remember a few of his BOG's but between Hewett, Cerra, Kennedy and him its hard to know if hes in line for a bunch of 1s and 2s in plenty of games.
 
WalshistheGOAT said:
Can someone give me a run down of their votes for Walsh over the season? Got so swept up with Cripps I can only remember a few of his BOG's but between Hewett, Cerra, Kennedy and him its hard to know if hes in line for a bunch of 1s and 2s in plenty of games.
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R3: 0.5
R5: 2.5
R7: 1
R9: 2
R10: 2
R11: 2.5
R13: 0.5
R14: 0.5
R15: 3
 
Top 10
20 - A Brayshaw C Oliver
19 - P Cripps L Neale
16 - C Petracca S Walsh
14 - T Miller
13 - J Cameron S Coniglio D Parish

Interesting to compare other top 10’s I do get the feeling that I’m probably underselling Lachie,he’s been borderline for one more vote in probably 4 matches
 
chipins said:
Top 10
20 - A Brayshaw C Oliver
19 - P Cripps L Neale
16 - C Petracca S Walsh
14 - T Miller
13 - J Cameron S Coniglio D Parish

Interesting to compare other top 10’s I do get the feeling that I’m probably underselling Lachie,he’s been borderline for one more vote in probably 4 matches
Click to expand...
Highest I’ve seen Coniglio, I’ve got him on 9.
The rest seems fairly inline with what most other people have.
 
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