AFL 2022 Brownlow Medal

[balmainforever]

anybody who posts bets after the count is over on Sunday without putting them up first WILL BE CARDED

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

Completing the loop on this count. Laird 3rd - choked in the final round.

Brownlow Medal round 23 predictor: Carlton star tipped to win, while Melbourne gun hot on his tail | Sporting News Australia

The AFL home-and-away season has finally commenced and with it comes the contest to win the 2022 Brownlow Medal.

www.sportingnews.com

 

[SirBont]

what every go to Brownlow people for votes doing a prep for the night if I need to bet live example

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

Tigers04 and NonPhixion. What's so funny? It is not common practice to give 3 votes to a player in a losing team.
In fact it rarely happens.

Between 2017 and 2021, the 3v went to a player on the losing team about 9% of the time.

Fun fact: Fyfe got 3 in a 110-33 point loss to Richmond in 2018.

 

[madskill55]

what every go to Brownlow people for votes doing a prep for the night if I need to bet live example View attachment 1487040

Whose your top 5? Neale Oliver Cripps Brayshaw trac/ miller?

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Between 2017 and 2021, the 3v went to a player on the losing team about 9% of the time.

Fun fact: Fyfe got 3 in a 110-33 point loss to Richmond in 2018.

So a bit less than one in every 10 games. I would put Cripps down for 2.5. Josh Daicos may get the 3.

 

[SirBont]

Whose your top 5? Neale Oliver Cripps Brayshaw trac/ miller?

 

[SirBont]

Pending Round 23 Votes but yeh got Neale as my winner just

 

[EFL Boy]

They're here.

 

[NonPhixion]

So a bit less than one in every 10 games. I would put Cripps down for 2.5. Josh Daicos may get the 3.

i rekon if you look at the % of 3 votes in losses under 3 goals it would be a lot higher than 9, they lost by 1 point not 70.
Cripps had 27 contested possessions and was the dominant player on the ground. He is getting 3 votes for sure

 

[Tigers04]

Tigers04 and NonPhixion. What's so funny? It is not common practice to give 3 votes to a player in a losing team.
In fact it rarely happens.

Kidding ya self mate if you think Daicos gets the 3 over cripps
Cripps was hands down the best player on the ground, streets ahead of the next bloke.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

i rekon if you look at the % of 3 votes in losses under 3 goals it would be a lot higher than 9, they lost by 1 point not 70.
Cripps had 27 contested possessions and was the dominant player on the ground. He is getting 3 votes for sure

The betfair Brownlow predictor has him on 2.5 votes.

 

[Tigers04]

The betfair Brownlow predictor has him on 2.5 votes.

View attachment 1487092

Yep and the rest of their votes for that game were
1.5 Darcy Moore
1 Adam Cerra
1 Josh Daicos

Does this not tell you that cripps was clearly BOG?

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Yep and the rest of their votes for that game were
1.5 Darcy Moore
1 Adam Cerra
1 Josh Daicos

Does this not tell you that cripps was clearly BOG?

Ok mate if you know better than the statisticians at betfair you're better than me.
To me he's a 50/50 chance to get the 3.

 

[Tigers04]

Ok mate if you know better than the statisticians at betfair you're better than me.
To me he's a 50/50 chance to get the 3.

Never said that I was better than them, just simply stating that they and 99% of other viewers think cripps was comfortably the best player on the ground.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Never said that I was better than them, just simply stating that they and 99% of other viewers think cripps was comfortably the best player on the ground.

They gave him 2.5 not 3 though.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

So how many 3 voters does everyone have Cripps on?

Ive got him Rd 1,2,3,6,7,8,13,19 and 23 - that takes him to 27 votes if he gets the 3 in all of them, the Essendon game our best were Doc and Newman and I just can't see them giving half backs the 3 knowing he was in brownlow contention.

He doesn't have too many 1 or 2 vote worthy games which may come back to bite him... rd 9,14,16,17 he's a chance for 1, maybe 2 in some.

If he gets the rub of the umps in a few of those his standout games probably enough to get him over the 30 mark which will be around what the winner polls this year imo.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

I think backing Cripps at $7.60 and laying off after round 8 when he's potentially on 16 votes could be a nice play.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

When does round by round odds come out, not for a few weeks?

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

Anyone know if the Betfair predictions have been accurate last few years?

 

[adammania9]

My final count

28.5 P Cripps
28 C Petracca, L Neale
24 And. Brayshaw, T Miller
22.5 C Oliver
21 S Walsh
20.5 S Bolton
19.5 J Cameron, C Mills, C Rozee
18 R Laird
17.5 D Prestia, O Wines
16.5 T Lynch
16 H McCluggage
15 Z Merrett, C Guthrie

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

These last couple weeks have got me rattled, gonna wait till coaches votes come out to confirm.

It's a 3 horse race between Neale/Oliver/Petracca - looking at a Neale/Petracca win, however I reckon I'm high on him and low on Neale/Oliver

 

[NSWCROW]

I have Neale and Brayshaw tied

 

[Dawggin It]

I haven't done a round by round count so don't take any notice of this.

But I feel like if anyone is likely to "over poll" to win this year it's Oliver.

Plenty of games I've watched where I haven't thought he was particularly effective/damaging or perhaps only turned it on in the second half of dead rubbers (like Rd 23) but at the end of the day he's still had a stack of possessions/contested possessions/clearances that I can see the umps awarding 3 votes for when he's expected to poll 1.

 

[SirBont]

Finals votes for me very close mine you I didn't give Neale votes round 1 most did will be a nervous watch come Brownlow night

 

[SirBont]

Anyone know if the Betfair predictions have been accurate last few years?

yeh think they have got it right the past few years I think they do a pretty good job it model based by a person and adds his final thoughts