AFL 2022 Brownlow Medal

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anybody who posts bets after the count is over on Sunday without putting them up first WILL BE CARDED
 

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Here's my final count. Pretty funny/interesting how none of the top 5 tied despite it being super close.

Overall
27 - Neale
26 - Oliver
25 - Cripps
24 - Petracca
23 - Miller
-----
22 - Brayshaw
20 - Cameron
18 - Laird, Mills, Rozee
17 - Walsh, Bolton, Prestia
15 - Parker
14 - Parish, Gawn, Guthrie, McCluggage, Merrett
13 - C. Curnow, Warner, Wines, Dunkley

Some of my potentially surprising team vote leaders are: Larkey over LDU, Gunston over Newcombe/Titch, Dunkley over Bont/Baz, and Junior Rioli tied with Kennedy at WC (lol)

This is the first year I've done my own count and followed along throughout the season... and I gotta say, I don't feel very confident at all :$

Can't wait for the count.
 
mitchzz said:
Here's my final count. Pretty funny/interesting how none of the top 5 tied despite it being super close.

Overall
27 - Neale
26 - Oliver
25 - Cripps
24 - Petracca
23 - Miller
-----
22 - Brayshaw
20 - Cameron
18 - Laird, Mills, Rozee
17 - Walsh, Bolton, Prestia
15 - Parker
14 - Parish, Gawn, Guthrie, McCluggage, Merrett
13 - C. Curnow, Warner, Wines, Dunkley

Some of my potentially surprising team vote leaders are: Larkey over LDU, Gunston over Newcombe/Titch, Dunkley over Bont/Baz, and Junior Rioli tied with Kennedy at WC (lol)

This is the first year I've done my own count and followed along throughout the season... and I gotta say, I don't feel very confident at all :$

Can't wait for the count.
Click to expand...

Here are some phrases to help you get through:
"How TF he get 3 there?"
"This is cooked!"
"Umpires aren't paid enough to not be corrupt!"
"40 touches and no votes? GF!"
"How'd he win? Shoulda been suspended!"
 
What does everyone have for Melbourne's round 7/8 games against Hawthorn and St Kilda? Feel like that could be telling.

Against the Hawks I've gone
3 Gawn (29 touches 2 goals, lock)
2 Moore (25 second half touches as they came back)
1 Petracca

But could see Petracca/Oliver polling either 1 or 2.

Saints game went 3 Oliver and 2 Petracca, without any real confidence.
 

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This is going to be one hell of a count. So close at the top and legit 30 people in contention for top 20.

1st Lachie Neale 28

2nd Patrick Cripps 27

=3rd Christian Petracca 26
=3rd Clayton Oliver 26

5th Touk Miller 22

=6th Andrew Brayshaw 21
=6th Jeremy Cameron 21

=8th Callum Mills 19
=8th Connor Rozee 19

10th Dion Prestia 18

11th Rory Laird 17

12th Cameron Guthrie 16

=13th Sam Walsh 15
=13th Shai Bolton 15

=15th Jack Steele 14
=15th Chad Warner 14
=15th Darcy Parish 14

=18th Charlie Curnow 13
=18th Jordan De Goey 13
=18th Zach Merrett 13
=18th Will Brodie 13
=18th Max Gawn 13
=18th Luke Parker 13
=18th Tom Lynch 13
=18th Marcus Bontempelli 13
=18th Bailey Smith 13
 
Hi everyone,

Hope it’s okay to post this here, feel in a bit of a tricky spot.

A cash out today would be life-changing, but believe if he places in Top 3 it’s 1/4 of original odds, so return would be nearly double at around $18,000. Though then again, he may even get close to winning it….

I’m pretty inexperienced when it comes to any kind of betting strategies, does anybody have any types I could use in this situation?

That’s if there “are” any. I am reading some people talk in here about ‘laying off’ but I can’t really figure it out, so thought I would try asking. A bit overwhelmed

D4BA9C59-EFEE-4B8F-B670-95BA72BD1F6C.jpeg
 
MissBlueBagger93 said:
Hi everyone,

Hope it’s okay to post this here, feel in a bit of a tricky spot.

A cash out today would be life-changing, but believe if he places in Top 3 it’s 1/4 of original odds, so return would be nearly double at around $18,000. Though then again, he may even get close to winning it….

I’m pretty inexperienced when it comes to any kind of betting strategies, does anybody have any types I could use in this situation?

That’s if there “are” any. I am reading some people talk in here about ‘laying off’ but I can’t really figure it out, so thought I would try asking. A bit overwhelmed

View attachment 1488378
Click to expand...

Could try to lay it off on betfair at 6.5 ish. However that cash out is pretty generous. if you need the cash take it out I would say.
 
MissBlueBagger93 said:
Hi everyone,

Hope it’s okay to post this here, feel in a bit of a tricky spot.

A cash out today would be life-changing, but believe if he places in Top 3 it’s 1/4 of original odds, so return would be nearly double at around $18,000. Though then again, he may even get close to winning it….

I’m pretty inexperienced when it comes to any kind of betting strategies, does anybody have any types I could use in this situation?

That’s if there “are” any. I am reading some people talk in here about ‘laying off’ but I can’t really figure it out, so thought I would try asking. A bit overwhelmed

View attachment 1488378
Click to expand...
You may be able to lay off on Cripps at around $4 in the live betting if he's leading by a lot after round 8 when he's on around 16 or 17 votes.
 
MissBlueBagger93 said:
Hi everyone,

Hope it’s okay to post this here, feel in a bit of a tricky spot.

A cash out today would be life-changing, but believe if he places in Top 3 it’s 1/4 of original odds, so return would be nearly double at around $18,000. Though then again, he may even get close to winning it….

I’m pretty inexperienced when it comes to any kind of betting strategies, does anybody have any types I could use in this situation?

That’s if there “are” any. I am reading some people talk in here about ‘laying off’ but I can’t really figure it out, so thought I would try asking. A bit overwhelmed

View attachment 1488378
Click to expand...

From what I can see there is no quarter payout if he finishes top 3 it's just a straight out win pick?

Given his BF price is $6.60/$9, the overs you originally had and the significance of the amount would recommend taking the cash out.

Put a portion of it on him again at what will likely be about 7s if you want to get a bigger collect should he win
 
MissBlueBagger93 said:
Hi everyone,

Hope it’s okay to post this here, feel in a bit of a tricky spot.

A cash out today would be life-changing, but believe if he places in Top 3 it’s 1/4 of original odds, so return would be nearly double at around $18,000. Though then again, he may even get close to winning it….

I’m pretty inexperienced when it comes to any kind of betting strategies, does anybody have any types I could use in this situation?

That’s if there “are” any. I am reading some people talk in here about ‘laying off’ but I can’t really figure it out, so thought I would try asking. A bit overwhelmed

View attachment 1488378
Click to expand...

Great bet. Now, your stake was only $20. Not a huge amount. It's essentially a novelty bet.

You are looking at the $72,000 "potential" win, but if you only put the $20 on to win $10,000, would you be happy with that? I know I would be.

Try and not look at what you "could" get, and look at what you're being offered. Real money. Now.

If you push $20 across the table and someone pushes back $10k, you'd walk away happy.

$10k is too much to lose. I'd cash out.

Enjoy the win :)
 
MissBlueBagger93 said:
Hi everyone,

Hope it’s okay to post this here, feel in a bit of a tricky spot.

A cash out today would be life-changing, but believe if he places in Top 3 it’s 1/4 of original odds, so return would be nearly double at around $18,000. Though then again, he may even get close to winning it….

I’m pretty inexperienced when it comes to any kind of betting strategies, does anybody have any types I could use in this situation?

That’s if there “are” any. I am reading some people talk in here about ‘laying off’ but I can’t really figure it out, so thought I would try asking. A bit overwhelmed

View attachment 1488378
Click to expand...
Call em up and ask for a partial cashout. Say cash out 7 or 8k and ride the rest for fun
 
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