AFL 2022 Brownlow Medal

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anybody who posts bets after the count is over on Sunday without putting them up first WILL BE CARDED
 
NYRB said:
. Usually handicaps get crunched in fairly quickly once people get on, not sure if $2.90 was the starting price on him. Would assume that the money has come in for Zorko to have him favourite there.
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Zorko opened at $6.50 last night and I hammered it. Couldn’t believe it
 
TurbosTeam said:
Zorko opened at $6.50 last night and I hammered it. Couldn’t believe it
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It looks like the juice has definitely been taken out now for these players:

Carlton Docherty +21.5 $2.25
Brisbane Zorko +26.5 $2.90
North Melbourne Larkey+ 2.5 $1.90
Richmond Bolton +5.5 $2.10

Well done to anyone that got on at better than those prices listed. Im not the type that likes playing an 8 man handicap field at less than $2.75 or so. Think TAB had these lines sorted out last week once they compiled and finalised their odds. I guess its just weight of money for them to even up their books. Although I admit I did chuck in a $2.25 handicap leg for Bolton for one of my multis.
 
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NYRB said:
I think if you got $26-$30 in an accumulator for that, i reckon in an 8 man field for each leg, think its quite poor odds for that.
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If your logic is you need big odds in an 8 man field then you are going to miss value quite often. Eg: Usain Bolt vs 7 blokes from bigfooty in 100m sprint would be great value. Unless Leeroy Brown in the field as he is as quick as it gets!!
 
Geeves Train said:
If your logic is you need big odds in an 8 man field then you are going to miss value quite often. Eg: Usain Bolt vs 7 blokes from bigfooty in 100m sprint would be great value. Unless Leeroy Brown in the field as he is as quick as it gets!!
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Those legs could all very well get up. From past experience know those handicap lines are a matter of fine margin, a vote here or there can swing the group/win the group. I havent watched as many games compared to last seasons, just going off the games I have watched and factoring where votes may be pinched by the 'lesser' players. Think ideally if you have watched more games this season, you will get a better feel for the count in the handicap group for teams. Was able to spot Florent to win Sydney handicap a few years back, despite him polling 3 or 4 votes. Would love to see TAB offer some 'historical odds' chart in future, would be great to see patterns and price movements.

17 of those 18 guys starting with the +0 handicap, are not favourites to win their team handicap- which I think sounds about right.
 
Anyone have their success rate with teams handicaps from prev years? Like amount of players that their counts rated to win handicap actually won? (I know it’s pretty niche so not expecting anything)

Just wondering whether 5 leg multis on it is actually doable. Last year I did 10 multis, closest I got was 3/5 (would’ve paid 90k). Can feel like a deadset lottery sometimes.

Also fwiw, 6/18 won from scratch last year - Wines, Bont, Parish, Walsh, Cunnington and Lyons. Possibly due to the higher count for midfielders we saw
 
Billionaire Panda said:
Anyone have their success rate with teams handicaps from prev years? Like amount of players that their counts rated to win handicap actually won? (I know it’s pretty niche so not expecting anything)

Just wondering whether 5 leg multis on it is actually doable. Last year I did 10 multis, closest I got was 3/5 (would’ve paid 90k). Can feel like a deadset lottery sometimes.

Also fwiw, 6/18 won from scratch last year - Wines, Bont, Parish, Walsh, Cunnington and Lyons. Possibly due to the higher count for midfielders we saw
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I had 9/18 correct from my count last season & missed another by 0.5 of a vote. So 50%. Was pretty happy with that looking back, considering the wide variance of surprise votes & under/over-polling you get.
 
Has anyone asked SB live chat if they're doing the 3 vote markets this year? Previous years they've been out way before now
 

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mozz23 said:
Anyone get on anything at big odds?
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Got on the following:

Brayshaw vs Ess Rd 3 @ $8
Steele vs PA Rd 7 @ $13
Himmelberg vs NM Rd 13 @ $5
Ugle-Hagan vs Mel Rd 19 @ $8
Redman vs NM Rd 20 @ $5
Gawn vs Coll Rd 21 @ $8
Prestia vs PA Rd 21 @ $5
Larkey vs Syd Rd 21 @ $5
Hawkins vs WC Rd 23 @ $8
 
mozz23 said:
Anyone get on anything at big odds?
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I have a small play on Daniher v Port @ $31.

He would be taking on a big game from Houston (36 touches, 2g, didn't win) but his 4.3 pulled Brisbane close to level in the 4th. He kicked some quality goals and really should have had 5 if not for some costly selflessness. In round 1, weird stuff happens.
 
mozz23 said:
Anyone get on anything at big odds?
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Turns it into a bit of dick measuring contest, but biggest movers I've had so far:

Rd 2 Mills 13 -> 5
Rd 5 Ladhams 26 -> 8
Rd 6 Steele 11 -> 4
Rd 7 Walsh 67 -> 11
Rd 9 Bazza 15 -> 3.5
Rd 8 Blicavs 11 -> 4
Rd 10 Brodie 8 -> 3.5
Rd 11 Lobb 10 -> 3.5
Rd 12 D.Cameron 10 -> 2.5
Rd 12 Tex 13 -> 2.5
Rd 13 Serong 13 -> 5
Rd 15 Dunkley 101 -> 21
Rd 16 Hawkins 13 -> 4
Rd 16 Guthrie 46 -> 10
Rd 19 Newcombe 13 -> 4
Rd 19 Prestia 13 -> 3
Rd 20 Gulden 8 -> 3.25
Rd 20 Darling 13 -> 4
Rd 20 Redman 8 -> 3.75
Rd 21 Larkey 8 -> 2.95
Rd 21 JJK 2.75 -> 1.55
Rd 22 Dawson 11 -> 3.5
Rd 23 Lynch 13 -> 2.95
Rd 23 Sicily 13 -> 5
 
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invisible_ said:
Turns it into a bit of dick measuring contest, but biggest movers I've had so far:

Rd 2 Mills 13 -> 5
Rd 5 Ladhams 26 -> 8
Rd 6 Steele 11 -> 4
Rd 7 Walsh 67 -> 11
Rd 9 Bazza 15 -> 3.5
Rd 8 Blicavs 11 -> 4
Rd 10 Brodie 8 -> 3.5
Rd 11 Lobb 10 -> 3.5
Rd 12 D.Cameron 10 -> 2.5
Rd 12 Tex 13 -> 2.5
Rd 13 Serong 13 -> 5
Rd 15 Dunkley 101 -> 21
Rd 16 Hawkins 13 -> 4
Rd 14 Guthrie 46 -> 10
Rd 19 Newcombe 13 -> 4
Rd 19 Prestia 13 -> 3
Rd 20 Gulden 8 -> 3.25
Rd 20 Darling 13 -> 4
Rd 20 Redman 8 -> 3.75
Rd 21 Larkey 8 -> 2.95
Rd 21 JJK 2.75 -> 1.55
Rd 22 Dawson 11 -> 3.5
Rd 23 Lynch 13 -> 2.95
Rd 23 Sicily 13 -> 5
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Had a dabble at a fair few on here at the odds. Didn't realise JK was 2.75 for his last game tho, took 2s.
 
Melbourne's line of 99.5 total team votes on TAB seems too high.
 
invisible_ said:
Turns it into a bit of dick measuring contest, but biggest movers I've had so far:

Rd 2 Mills 13 -> 5
Rd 5 Ladhams 26 -> 8
Rd 6 Steele 11 -> 4
Rd 7 Walsh 67 -> 11
Rd 9 Bazza 15 -> 3.5
Rd 8 Blicavs 11 -> 4
Rd 10 Brodie 8 -> 3.5
Rd 11 Lobb 10 -> 3.5
Rd 12 D.Cameron 10 -> 2.5
Rd 12 Tex 13 -> 2.5
Rd 13 Serong 13 -> 5
Rd 15 Dunkley 101 -> 21
Rd 16 Hawkins 13 -> 4
Rd 14 Guthrie 46 -> 10
Rd 19 Newcombe 13 -> 4
Rd 19 Prestia 13 -> 3
Rd 20 Gulden 8 -> 3.25
Rd 20 Darling 13 -> 4
Rd 20 Redman 8 -> 3.75
Rd 21 Larkey 8 -> 2.95
Rd 21 JJK 2.75 -> 1.55
Rd 22 Dawson 11 -> 3.5
Rd 23 Lynch 13 -> 2.95
Rd 23 Sicily 13 -> 5
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Wow your dick is big!!
 
salaterra said:
Either way without the ability to multi these, not the best market to chase I wouldn't say. However, I have Melb totalling around 95. So unders do look good.
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Huh?

You've used a double negative which confuses me. I'm going to assume you didn't mean to use one, and I'm assuming you're suggesting because you can't multi this market, you're not interested. That's fine, each to their own.

IMWRO, it's flawed logic to not place a +EV bet because you can't multi it.
 
Any bookie offering the ability to multi up individual round betting or is ir only Sportsbet that has the market up?
 
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