AFL 2022 Brownlow Medal

Remove this Banner Ad

Status
Not open for further replies.
anybody who posts bets after the count is over on Sunday without putting them up first WILL BE CARDED
 
How come Sportsbet removed their exact player votes market?
 

Log in to remove this ad.

X_box_X said:
How come Sportsbet removed their exact player votes market?
Click to expand...
Invariably they will remove markets than restore them.

Probably multiple campaigners were pounding it like Oraz. SB generally dont change their odds after one bet, but multiple bets quickly in a short time will do.
 
Some 3 vote games of interest (per SportsBet's current odds. Haven't checked other bookies yet)

R2: Pendlebury $5 vs Adelaide. Instrumental with 28 disposals, only Jack Crisp can rival him for 3. Rate him a $3-3.50 chance.
R2: Noah Balta $2.75 vs GWS. Think Short is far too short (haha), Balta with 4 goals was massively influential
R2: Max King $4.50 vs Fremantle. 4 second half goals in an upset win for St Kilda. Bray had 40 and a goal so is a fair favourite. King should be $3.
R3: Josh Dunkley $3.75 vs Sydney. Dunkley was my BOG personally. I think he and English should be near even odds.
R4: Jack Ziebell $3.50 vs Sydney. Look I had McInerney polling 3 like most, but on second thought do the umpires acknowledge an unheralded winger's influence? Ziebell almost won the game for North
R4: Dion Prestia $6 vs Bulldogs. Once again not keen on Jayden Short. 30 touches and a goal in a big win looks good. Should be $3-$3.50 imo
R4: Jade Gresham $11 vs Hawthorn. I don't expect this to get up, but $11 for Gresh's 20 touch 4 goal effort is overs.
R5: Jai Newcombe $3.25 vs Geelong. Do the umpires recognise him yet? Stood out as the best player on the ground to me.
R6: Ollie Wines $6.50 vs West Coast. Watched the whole game and I thought Wines was better than Rozee, but it's 6.50 vs $1.30.
R7: Jack Steele $7 vs Port Adelaide. Every bit as good as the favourite Wines. Should be $3 I think and only because of the result.
R7: Jack Crisp $4.50 vs Gold Coast. Touk was BOG, but this price for the best player in a 25 point winning side seems a solid bet to me.
R9: Shai Bolton $9 vs Hawthorn. Low possession game, Bolton stood out with 20 and 2 goals and looks a better chance than his odds suggest. I had him polling 2.5, and funnily Lynch polling 2 (16d, 4g) but you can't even bet on him.
R9: Jade Gresham $3.25 vs Geelong. Watched whole game and thought Gresham was every bit as good as the favourite Crouch. 30 and 8 clearances.
R11: Jarrod Witts $5.50 vs Hawthorn. $3 chance imo. Dominant against no ruck.
R13: Karl Amon $7 vs Richmond. Wouldn't expect him to beat Baker, but with 29 touches in a low possession game he's better than a $7 chance
R13: Jack Crisp $15 vs Melbourne. SB have it a two horse race between Clarry and Cox. Crisp should be half his odds.
R14: Dylan Shiel $10 vs St Kilda. Numbers don't back me but Shiel was BOG per the eye test. Won the ball well and used it cleanly all night.
R15: Clayton Oliver $6 vs Brisbane. I was there and whilst Viney was definitely BOG, $6 for a player of Oliver's calibre when the two had the same number of possessions seems great value.
R18: Jy Simpkin $3 vs Richmond. Of Zurhaar's 6 goals, only one came after half time. Simpkin's 34, 9 clearances and goal was much more consistent over four quarters. Should be $2-2.30
R19: Jamarra Ugle-Hagan $3 vs Melbourne. Can't believe he's not favourite. Outstanding game-winning performance. Should swap odds with Bont.
R19: Patrick Cripps $2.25 vs GWS Giants. When Crippa has 30 and kicks a goal in a win, he usually polls well. Safe bet this one imo. Should be $1.60.
R20: Errol Gulden $3.25 vs GWS Giants. 33 and 2 goals and nearly 700 metres gained. Monster game from the kid. I'd have him even odds with Parker.
R21: Jordan De Goey $3 vs Melbourne. Clearly Collingwood's best player in a great win. Didn't waste a possession all night. Should be $1.80-2.
R21: Rory Lobb $8 vs Bulldogs. Didn't think there were many standouts in this game. I'd have Lobb's 4 goal effort around a $5 chance
R22: Jordan Dawson $3.50 vs North Melbourne. Bookies have this wrong imo. Crows won by 5 goals and he's their shortest odds? LDU was great but I think the umpires choose Dawson.
R22: Jake Melksham $2.75 vs Carlton. Played a great forward's game with 4 goals, and I'm not confident the slightly better Brayshaw will appease umpires.
R23: Christian Petracca $3.50 vs Brisbane. Didn't think Oliver was great, Petracca much more influential imo.
R23: Tyson Stengle $10 vs West Coast. It's a raffle in an 85 point win but Stengle with 18 and 4 goals looks great odds.
R23: James Rowbottom $5 vs St Kilda. Clean and efficient in a good win. He should be $2.50-$3 imo
 
NYRB said:
Any idea on what the cap for each market is?
Click to expand...
I got "reviewed" on a bet to make about $250, and another to make $450.

I don't know if that was because they just put the markets up and they were just being extra cautious initially; if they just have lower limits than elsewhere; or if it was just because it was me, as I always get reviewed for anything to make over $500, but in this case it obviously wasn't over that amount anyway.

365 allow you to bet to make $1K currently on the 3-vote markets I believe.
 
PointsBet messed up rd 11, should read Saints v North Melbourne, wonder what happens in this case if you lose because of it, would they refund? Almost sucked me in. Hill Sinclair and Gresham are all chances in the actual Saints Hawks game from earlier in the year and Jed Anderson used to be a hawk so a few probs miss it.
306549693_1129012931039776_433679138613835343_n.jpg
 
Billionaire Panda said:
PointsBet messed up rd 11, should read Saints v North Melbourne, wonder what happens in this case if you lose because of it, would they refund? Almost sucked me in. Hill Sinclair and Gresham are all chances in the actual Saints Hawks game from earlier in the year and Jed Anderson used to be a hawk so a few probs miss it.
306549693_1129012931039776_433679138613835343_n.jpg
Click to expand...
Best to contact them on Live Chat and let them know
 
3 Votes on Bet 365

all bets 0.5u

Round 2
Brayshaw $1.75
Short $1.75

Round 3
Crouch $2

Round 4
Steele $1.80

Round 5
Steele $2.75

Round 6
Lyons $9

Round 13
Neale $2.10
Coniglio $1.66

Round 15
Laird $4.50

Round 16
Neale $2.50
Miller $4
Wines $2.25

Round 17
Papley $2
Anderson $2.50
Merrett $2

Round 18
Simpkin $2.80
Selwood $1.75

Round 19
Laird $1.90
Atkins $2.50
Neale $2.35
Cripps $2.50

Round 20
Petracca $5
Gulden $3.60

Round 21
Whitfield $1.80
I. Smith $2.25
Nankervis $6
Warner $2.25
Neale $1.80

Round 22
Kelly $2.75

Round 23
Swallow $2.75
Selwood $1.90
 
Excuse the long post... my final leaderboards:

Top 20
28.5: Neale
28: Oliver
25.5: Cripps
25: Brayshaw
24: Petracca
23.5: Miller
21: Cameron
19.5: Laird, Mills, Rozee
18.5: Prestia
18: Walsh
15.5: McCluggage, Merrett, Wines
14.5: Curnow
14: Bolton, Gawn
13: Dunkley, Guthrie, Parker, Steele

Adelaide
19.5: Laird
10: Keays
8.5: Walker

Brisbane
28.5: Neale
15.5: McCluggage
6.5: Bailey

Carlton
25.5: Cripps
18: Neale
14.5: Curnow

Collingwood
11.5: Crisp
11: N. Daicos
8.5: De Goey

Essendon
15.5: Merrett
11: Parish
7: Redman, Wright

Fremantle
25: Brayshaw
12.5: Brodie
8.5: Serong

Geelong
21: Cameron
13: Guthrie
10.5: Stewart

Gold Coast
23.5: Miller
9.5: Anderson
5.5: Swallow, Witts

Greater Western Sydney
11: Kelly
8.5: Coniglio
5: Greene

Hawthorn
9: Gunston
7: Mitchell, Newcombe

Melbourne
28: Oliver
24: Petracca
14: Gawn

North Melbourne
9: Davies-Uniacke
7: Larkey
4: Simpkin

Port Adelaide
19.5: Rozee
15.5: Wines
8: Boak

Richmond
18.5: Prestia
14: Bolton
12: Lynch

St Kilda
13: Steele
11.5: Crouch
8.5: Sinclair

Sydney
19.5: Mills
13: Parker
12: Warner

West Coast
5.5: Kennedy
3.5: Barrass, Rioli

Western Bulldogs
13: Dunkley
12: Bontempelli
10.5: Smith
 
Using my count:

Sportsbet H2H
Bolton 14
Parker 13

Gawn 14
Lynch 12

Crouch 11.5
Macrae 7.5

Walker 8.5
Hawkins 8.5

Parish 11
Crisp 11.5

Heeney 9
Bailey 6.5

Liberatore 8
Viney 8

Dangerfield 9
Brayshaw(Mel) 9

Serong 8.5
Selwood 6.5

Sicily 5.5
Hill 5.5

Sinclair 8.5
Newcombe 7

Mills 19.5
Rozee 19.5

Darcy 6
Lewis 5.5

Kennedy 5.5
Pickett 4.5

N. Daicos 11
J. Daicos 6

TAB H2H
Merrett 15.5
Wines 15.5

Cameron 21
Prestia 18.5

Gawn 14
Lynch 12

Warner 12
Steele 13

Franklin 4.5
Cotchin 4.5

Bolton 14
Macrae 7.5

Rozee 19.5
Parker 13

Laird 19.5
Guthrie 13

Crisp 11.5
Parish 11

Sinclair 8.5
Newcombe 7

Mills 19.5
Walsh 18

Mccluggage 15.5
Dunkley 13
 
Last edited:

(Log in to remove this ad.)

And last long post for the day... using my count:

Sportsbet Groups (in order of current odds)
Lyons 4.5
Swallow 5.5
Witts 5.5
Rowell 5
Zorko 5
Rankine 4
Cameron 4
Ellis 4

Darcy 6
Kennedy 5.5
Schultz 5.5
Lobb 3.5
T. Kelly 3
Ryan 3
Acres 2.5
Young 3.5

Smith 10.5
Keays 10
Crouch 11.5
Coniglio 8.5
Macrae 7.5
Walker 8.5
Gunston 9
Hawkins 8.5

Sicily 5.5
Larkey 7
Treloar 5
Dawson 6
Houston 5
Lewis 5.5
Pickett 4.5
Hill 5.5

TAB Groups (in order of current odds)
Kelly 11
Keays 10
Bontempelli 12
Crisp 11.5
Parish 11
Crouch 11.5
Anderson 9.5
Smith 10.5

N. Daicos 11
De Goey 8.5
Mitchell 7
Gresham 8
Boak 8
Dangerfield 9
J. Daicos 6
Heeney 9

Stewart 10.5
Liberatore 8
Brayshaw 9
Short 6.5
Selwood 6.5
Davies-Uniacke 9
Bailey 6.5
Gunston 9

Walker 8.5
Hawkins 8.5
Darcy 6
English 6.5
Wright 7
Smith 6.5
Higgins 7
Lewis 5.5

Viney 8
Docherty 10
Sinclair 8.5
Serong 8.5
Newcombe 7
Swallow 5.5
Duncan 5
Treloar 5
 
ROUND 18



WB v ST K

3 M Bontempelli (WB)

2 T Liberatore (WB)

1 J Sinclair (St K)



ADEL v COLL

3 N Daicos (Coll)

2 T Walker (Adel)

1 R Laird (Adel)



GWS v BRIS

3 H McLuggage (Bris)

2 C Rayner (Bris)

1 K Coleman (Bris)



NM v RICH

3 C Zuhaar (NM)

2 J Simpkin (NM)

1 L Davies-Uniacke (NM)



FREO v SYD

3 C Warner (Syd)

2 E Gulden (Syd)

1 C Mills (Syd)



CARL v GEEL

3 J Selwood (Geel)

2 J Cameron (Geel)

1 S Walsh (Carl)



HAW v WCE

3 L Breust (Haw)

2 T Barrass (WCE)

1 J Ward (Haw)



MELB v PA

3 K Pickett (Melb)

2 C Petracca (Melb)

1 C Rozee (PA)



ESS v GC

3 Z Merrett (Ess)

2 M Redman (Ess)

1 J Stringer (Ess)



LEADERBOARD
24​
A Brayshaw (Fre0)
21​
L Neale (Bris), T Miller (GC), C Petracca (Melb)
19​
J Cameron (Geel)
18​
P Cripps (Carl), S Walsh (Carl)






ROUND 19



RICH v FREO

3 H Young (Freo)

2 D Prestia (Rich)

1 W Brodie (Freo)



NM v HAW

3 J Gunston (Haw)

2 J Newcombe (Haw)

1 T Mitchell (Haw)



SYD v ADEL

3 N Blakey (Syd)

2 R Laird (Adel)

1 T Papley (Syd)



PA v GEEL

3 T Atkins (Geel)

2 C Dixon (PA)

1 T Hawkins (Geel)



BRIS v GC

3 T Miller (GC)

2 H McLuggage (Bris)

1 L Neale (Bris)



WB v MELB

3 M Bontempelli (WB)

2 J Ugle-Hagan (WB)

1 T English (WB)



CARL v GWS

3 P Cripps (Carl)

2 A Saad (Carl)

1 C Curnow (Carl)



COLL v ESS

3 Z Merrett (Ess)

2 T Adams (Coll)

1 J Elliott (Coll)



WCE v ST K

3 J Steele (St K)

2 B Crouch (St K)

1 D Butler (St K)



LEADERBOARD

24 A Brayshaw (Freo), T Miller (GC)

22 L Neale (Bris)

21 P Cripps (Carl) C Petracca (Melb)

19 J Cameron (Geel)





ROUND 20

FREO v MELB

3 J Viney (Melb)

2 C Petracca (Melb)

1 A Brayshaw (Melb)



COLL v PA

3 J DeGoey (Coll)

2 Z Butters (PA)

1 J Daicos (Coll)



SYD v GWS

3 L Parker (Syd)

2 E Guilden (Syd)

1 J Rowbottom (Syd)



ST K v HAW

3 R Marshall (St K)

2 B Crouch (St K)

1 J Steele (St K)



ADEL v CARL

3 B Smith (Adel)

2 B Keays (Adel)

1 P Cripps (Carl)



GEEL v WB

3 P Dangerfield (Geel)

2 J Guthrie (Geel)

1 I Smith (Geel)



GC v WCE

3 J Darling (WCE)

2 T Miller (GC)

1 M Chol (GC)



RICH v BRIS

3 S Bolton (Rich)

2 K Coleman (Bris)

1 T Lynch (Rich)



ESS v NM

3 M Redman (Ess)

2 Z Merrett (Ess)

1 J Stringer (Ess)



LEADERBOARD

26 T Miller (GC)

24 A Brayshaw (Freo)

23 C Petracca (Melb)

22 P Cripps (Carl), L Neale (Bris)
 
I'm legitimately suprised very much so many counts have petracca right there to win... seemed way better last year, then again Wines was the one of the 5-6 main guys last year I didn't think could win it... looks like JANUARYS count is going to be petracca/Touk quinella, thats paying 50.00 on betfair, around 34 fixed at tab
 
Last edited:
demon_fanatic said:
I'm legitimately suprised very much so many counts have petracca right there to win... seemed way better last year, then again Wines was the one of the 5-6 main guys last year I didn't think could win it... looks like JANUARYS count is going to be petracca/Touk quinella, thats paying 50.00 on betfair, around 34 fixed at tab
Click to expand...
Wouldn't be shocked to see him have the touk trac crippa triffy
 
Just reviewed Round 1 for Brownlow for Bulldogs v Melbourne.

Could be a bit of a barometer of Oliver and Bailey Smiths evenings, as to how they poll for the rest of the night.

Leading outlets (BeforeYouBet, ESPN, Betfair and AFL coaches votes) ranked Olivers performance: 2nd best, Not in the Top 4, equal 2nd best, 5th best.

Names being branded for votes in that game: Petracca, Oliver, Langdon, Bailey Smith, MacRae, Ben Brown, Naughton

Glad I reviewed that game as Petracca clearly BOG, but the 2 and 1 vote could be a bit of a coin toss.
 
NYRB, are you making a record of the prices for the 3-vote markets, or not your thing?

And if not, how do you actually do it?

Is it very time consuming pulling all the data off the sites?
 
Jack Sinclair $4.5 to poll most votes for St.Kilda. Steele the favourite after missing half the season. Absolute value
 
Bucking Bronco said:
NYRB, are you making a record of the prices for the 3-vote markets, or not your thing?

And if not, how do you actually do it?

Is it very time consuming pulling all the data off the sites?
Click to expand...
Watched all the games last year, this year havent had time to watch all of it (probably around half of the games). Teams I have watched most in 2022: Bulldogs (18 games) , Melbourne (17 games) and Brisbane (16 games). I probably have a better feel for those teams. Trying to squeeze a few more Carlton games between now and the count (Rd 5, 18 and 21).

From 198 games last year, predicted 127 as favourites to Get the 3 votes. (some might consider this a pretty poor strike rate).

Average price for favourites last year on my spreadsheet was $1.95, Median price $1.88. I generally tend to start away from shorter odds < $1.30 for Best on Ground.
 
NYRB said:
Watched all the games last year, this year havent had time to watch all of it (probably around half of the games). Teams I have watched most in 2022: Bulldogs (18 games) , Melbourne (17 games) and Brisbane (16 games). I probably have a better feel for those teams. Trying to squeeze a few more Carlton games between now and the count (Rd 5, 18 and 21).

From 198 games last year, predicted 127 as favourites to Get the 3 votes. (some might consider this a pretty poor strike rate).

Average price for favourites last year on my spreadsheet was $1.95, Median price $1.88. I generally tend to start away from shorter odds < $1.30 for Best on Ground.
Click to expand...
I was meaning, have you been recording the odds for every game for every round, like you do with the goalscorer markets each round.

How do you do that?

Currently I am just going to resort to print screening 365's and manually putting them into a spreadsheet lol.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Remove this Banner Ad

Similar threads

PowerfulPies2023
AFL 2024 Brownlow Medal
37 38 39 40 41
Replies
1K
Views
70K
HTPunter
H
rank and file
AFL 2023 Brownlow,Battle of the Bulls
31 32 33 34 35
Replies
862
Views
69K
balmainforever
balmainforever
N
Bangladesh v India (Dec 4-Dec 26 2022 , 3 ODIs and 2 Tests)
Replies
0
Views
807
NYRB
N

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top