AFL 2022 Brownlow Medal

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anybody who posts bets after the count is over on Sunday without putting them up first WILL BE CARDED
 
NYRB said:
Damn Heath Chapman is into $1.20 to Poll a vote at TAB but is still $3.50 at Sportsbet.
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Does SB not offer a cash out for this?
 

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NYRB said:
As a straight bet? probably not

If it was a T3, T5, T10, T20 , Winner , most likely you would be able to cash out or some multi involving a few legs of those .
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Damn, I just assumed you'd be able to cash it out.

Any books offer 'not to poll a vote' so you can cash out / hedge that way?
 
X_box_X said:
Damn, I just assumed you'd be able to cash it out.

Any books offer 'not to poll a vote' so you can cash out / hedge that way?
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I dont see the player listed but you could request on the Betfair exchange. Looks like they have a 'Player to Poll a Vote ' market up. (about 17 players listed so far)
 
Bucking Bronco said:
Yes, but how do you go about doing this lol?

Can you point me in the direction of a link to somewhere that explains how to do it if it is time consuming to explain yourself.
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I have a template that I used from last year, so that saves a bit of time from my side.


It automatically calculates the margins and i just have to adjust the players names.
 
To Poll A Vote - Conor Budarick $3.50 (SB)

Sneaky chance for the 1 in Round 12 win against Norf. 25 touches (equal second most for the suns). I've marked him down for 0.5 and JanMan has given him the 1. Also featured in the coaches votes and is $2 on TAB:

10 Touk Miller (GCFC)
7 Matt Rowell (GCFC)
6 Connor Budarick (GCFC)
5 Izak Rankine (GCFC)
2 David Swallow (GCFC)
 
Best of luck to all having a crack tonight. For those who take the time every year to both do their own counts in real time and then put them up, really hope all the hard work pays off, as I know better than many that putting up your counts can put you in a difficult position. Anyone contemplating doing a count next year, start as soon as the season does. Don't go back 4 months later, do it in real time and then you can identify early value.

Hopefully some have followed my very first post of pre-season tips as there are a couple of real shots there at nice prices at the time. I'll apologise in advance if anyone follows any of my stuff and doesn't win from it. Anyone who does their own counts is having a crack and I'll always stand up for those that do, and cop it later. It is difficult to analyse over 200 games and aim to get as much right from them as possible.

On that note, best of luck to all moving forward as this is my last year posting counts on here. I've been doing it here for over 10 years and there have been some big years of both team votes and outright winners I've predicted, which I hope some benefitted from. After all these years, I've probably gotten a bit worn down with PM's pestering me for my counts early and then getting more unpleasant ones when either a) I don't pass them over immediately, b) a player gets 2 votes in a game instead of 3 and I've cost them a multi and c) if any aspect of the count proves incorrect. I spend a heck of a lot of time studying the games, doing the votes, trying to point people in the right direction with it, and while many have been great about it, the last couple of years have brought out a side in a handful that I don't really feel inclined to keep dealing with. I tend to think, for example, that copping it for not posting a count earlier than some expect, because I put my outside life of work and family as a priority, is a bit rich and made a decision I was pondering for a while, a lot easier.

May your night and future counts be great ones and that all stay on the right side of the ledger with the bookies. For what it is worth, I still believe that Touk Miller is overs in a team that improved a lot this year, and for a player whose season was massive and right under the umpire's eyes all season.

Cheers
TJM
 
I have a few games that may not go anywhere.

Only started doing 3 vote games last year and managed to turn a profit on some decent dogs, but history may not repeat itself here.

I only do them for games that I bet on, and I usually bet quite a lot on the games so tend to watch them really closely.

3 games I have that are worth a shot at the odds are:

Willie Rioli vs Collingwood (Round 4) ($8 at TS). My rating #1, Coaches votes rating #2, TJM rating #1. No one stood out for Eagles when they got the upset, but Rioli's involvement, particularly in the final quarter as WC miraculously pulled ahead, was telling.

ANY OTHER (Ryan Burton) vs St Kilda (Round 7) ($11 at 365). My rating #1, Coaches votes rating #1, TJM rating #2. Again, no one stood out, so votes could go to someone completely random. That's why I think this bet is even better, as 'ANY OTHER' on 365 doesn't just cover Burton, but 37 other players, where a handful could all spring the surprise.

Serong vs WB (Round 21) ($15 at SB): My rating #1 with 2 others, but have him highest, Coaches votes #2, TJM N/A. Thought he was the best for Freo, but Lobb's cheap goals may sway umps. Didn't rate Ryan's high disposal game.

Real, real long shot here, but:

Todd Marshall vs WB (Round 8) ($21 at TS/ 365). My rating #1, Coaches votes rating #1 with 2 others, TJM rating N/A.

Rowell vs Syd (Round 8) ($21 at Lads). My rating #1 with 2 others, Coaches votes #2 with 3 others, TJM rating N/A.

Sicily vs Bris (Round 10) ($26 at Lads). My rating #1 with 1 other, Coaches votes rating #2, TJM rating N/A.


Probably a fair chance they all lose I guess, but that's what you get when you chase the long odds.
 
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BF frame this market in order of 'most likely to least likely' to poll a vote.

They've got Chapman sandwiched in the middle. Indicates his odds should be about $2.

1663480264924.png
 

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TheJanuaryMan said:
Best of luck to all having a crack tonight. For those who take the time every year to both do their own counts in real time and then put them up, really hope all the hard work pays off, as I know better than many that putting up your counts can put you in a difficult position. Anyone contemplating doing a count next year, start as soon as the season does. Don't go back 4 months later, do it in real time and then you can identify early value.

Hopefully some have followed my very first post of pre-season tips as there are a couple of real shots there at nice prices at the time. I'll apologise in advance if anyone follows any of my stuff and doesn't win from it. Anyone who does their own counts is having a crack and I'll always stand up for those that do, and cop it later. It is difficult to analyse over 200 games and aim to get as much right from them as possible.

On that note, best of luck to all moving forward as this is my last year posting counts on here. I've been doing it here for over 10 years and there have been some big years of both team votes and outright winners I've predicted, which I hope some benefitted from. After all these years, I've probably gotten a bit worn down with PM's pestering me for my counts early and then getting more unpleasant ones when either a) I don't pass them over immediately, b) a player gets 2 votes in a game instead of 3 and I've cost them a multi and c) if any aspect of the count proves incorrect. I spend a heck of a lot of time studying the games, doing the votes, trying to point people in the right direction with it, and while many have been great about it, the last couple of years have brought out a side in a handful that I don't really feel inclined to keep dealing with. I tend to think, for example, that copping it for not posting a count earlier than some expect, because I put my outside life of work and family as a priority, is a bit rich and made a decision I was pondering for a while, a lot easier.

May your night and future counts be great ones and that all stay on the right side of the ledger with the bookies. For what it is worth, I still believe that Touk Miller is overs in a team that improved a lot this year, and for a player whose season was massive and right under the umpire's eyes all season.

Cheers
TJM
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Hey mate, I’ve been lurking on the page for years and always loved your counts! Thanks heaps for the effort you put in each year! Good luck tonight!
 
Bucking Bronco said:
I have a few games that may not go anywhere.

Only started doing 3 vote games last year and managed to turn a profit on some decent dogs, but history may not repeat itself here.

I only do them for games that I bet on, and I usually bet quite a lot on the games so tend to watch them really closely.

3 games I have that are worth a shot at the odds are:

Willie Rioli vs Collingwood (Round 4) ($8 at TS). My rating #1, Coaches votes rating #2, TJM rating #1. No one stood out for Eagles when they got the upset, but Rioli's involvement, particularly in the final quarter as WC miraculously pulled ahead, was telling.

ANY OTHER (Ryan Burton) vs St Kilda (Round 7) ($11 at 365). My rating #1, Coaches votes rating #1, TJM rating #2. Again, no one stood out, so votes could go to someone completely random. That's why I think this bet is even better, as 'ANY OTHER' on 365 doesn't just cover Burton, but 37 other players, where a handful could all spring the surprise.

Serong vs WB (Round 21) ($15 at SB): My rating #1 with 2 others, but have him highest, Coaches votes #2, TJM N/A. Thought he was the best for Freo, but Lobb's cheap goals may sway umps. Didn't rate Ryan's high disposal game.

Real, real long shot here, but:

Todd Marshall vs WB (Round 8) ($21 at TS/ 365). My rating #1, Coaches votes rating #1 with 2 others, TJM rating N/A.

Rowell vs Syd (Round 8) ($21 at Lads). My rating #1 with 1 other, Coaches votes #2 with 3 others, TJM rating N/A.

Sicily vs Bris (Round 10) ($26 at Lads). My rating #1 with 1 other, Coaches votes rating #2, TJM rating N/A.


Probably a fair chance they all lose I guess, but that's what you get when you chase the long odds.
Click to expand...

Dont mind the Rioli Rd 4, Marshall at those odds slightly overs for me (had him 4th best ), Rowell at those odds overs for me (had him 4th best). To Support your case, there was a clear Top 4 on the ground for each of the Syd v GC & St.K v Port game. And both underdogs got up, so has to be a winning side id imagine with the votes.


Ive already taken Rioli to poll 3 there as a straight out bet.

So ill do a singles. Was thinking of doing doubles and trebles but its probably highly unlikely 2+ of those 3 get up.

At the time of writing can get Willie Rioli $11 at TAB, Marshall $41 at TAB. I decided to tail you for Rowell at $21 on Lads. Unfortunately Lads arent allowing same round multis for '3 Vote Games'.

Wouldnt touch Marshall at under 11, or Rowell under 8. At those prices its worth a flutter.
 
TheJanuaryMan said:
Best of luck to all having a crack tonight. For those who take the time every year to both do their own counts in real time and then put them up, really hope all the hard work pays off, as I know better than many that putting up your counts can put you in a difficult position. Anyone contemplating doing a count next year, start as soon as the season does. Don't go back 4 months later, do it in real time and then you can identify early value.

Hopefully some have followed my very first post of pre-season tips as there are a couple of real shots there at nice prices at the time. I'll apologise in advance if anyone follows any of my stuff and doesn't win from it. Anyone who does their own counts is having a crack and I'll always stand up for those that do, and cop it later. It is difficult to analyse over 200 games and aim to get as much right from them as possible.

On that note, best of luck to all moving forward as this is my last year posting counts on here. I've been doing it here for over 10 years and there have been some big years of both team votes and outright winners I've predicted, which I hope some benefitted from. After all these years, I've probably gotten a bit worn down with PM's pestering me for my counts early and then getting more unpleasant ones when either a) I don't pass them over immediately, b) a player gets 2 votes in a game instead of 3 and I've cost them a multi and c) if any aspect of the count proves incorrect. I spend a heck of a lot of time studying the games, doing the votes, trying to point people in the right direction with it, and while many have been great about it, the last couple of years have brought out a side in a handful that I don't really feel inclined to keep dealing with. I tend to think, for example, that copping it for not posting a count earlier than some expect, because I put my outside life of work and family as a priority, is a bit rich and made a decision I was pondering for a while, a lot easier.

May your night and future counts be great ones and that all stay on the right side of the ledger with the bookies. For what it is worth, I still believe that Touk Miller is overs in a team that improved a lot this year, and for a player whose season was massive and right under the umpire's eyes all season.

Cheers
TJM
Click to expand...

Agree, I've been a bit harsher on him this year and still got him on 21 votes.
Hope he gets up for you
 
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