AFL 2022 Brownlow Medal

[balmainforever]

anybody who posts bets after the count is over on Sunday without putting them up first WILL BE CARDED

 

[teamlenny]

Who is the Touk Miller this season?

Cameron or Brayshaw?

It could be Touk again given GC have the fewest wins of all the contenders teams.

Brayshaw has more games he can pick up votes in then Cameron but also has more competition for votes in them.
Cameron has some pretty safe 3s, both seem unlikely to do a Touk

 

[teamlenny]

I should have better framed it when I released the odds for Bris v GWS Is :

“this is what I think we will Get fromThe bookies” rather than these are the “odds I would rather back”

this makes more sense and is what it looked like at first glance.

Given your other posts I assume some sort of algorithm has priced it so it should be fairly easy for you to price up all 46 players from the game as well

 

[Tigers04]

You 2 finished?

 

[EFL Boy]

Random analysis but Rob O'Gorman umpired 2 of the most head-scratching games last season in regards to votes:
Rd 1 ESS/HAW - Draper 3 votes
Rd 6 GWS/WB - Macrae 0 votes

This year he has umpired the following:
Rd 1 STK/COLL
Rd 2 RICH/GWS
Rd 3 BL/NM
Rd 4 PA/MEL
Rd 5 ADEL/RICH
Rd 6 WB/ADEL
Rd 7 CARL/NM
Rd 9 SYD/ESS
Rd 10 ADEL/STK
Rd 11 BL/GWS
Rd 13 FRE/HAW
Rd 14 STK/ESS
Rd 15 CARL/FRE
Rd 16 FRE/PA
Rd 17 GC/RICH
Rd 18 ADEL/COLL

Obviously impossible to predict, but wouldn't be surprised if a game or two out of these don't go to plan.

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

if he 1.20 and you make it 96% chance then you should be betting it, he won't be though, likely to be $1.01, he is as close to a certainty as you can get, $1.15 or shorter went 61/62 last year for the 3, its usually a good guide in the end.

Anyway you keep failing to understand why your markets should be 100% so wont waste my time on this anymore, feel free to do whatever you like

The one that missed wouldn't happen to be Macrae round 6 against GWS would it?

 

[NYRB]

The Essendon v Gold Coast match in Rd 18 looks like the game where the 3 vote could go to a number of different players

BYB have Merrett and Redman as tied highest WAV at 2.5 votes. I dont think a Merrett is a shoe-in for the 3 votes here.

 

[SirBont]

If Cameron wins I’ll be kicking myself for not taking hundreds Shorly not

 

[NYRB]

If Cameron wins I’ll be kicking myself for not taking hundreds Shorly not

into $51 now, best price on the Exchanges at $60.

Another 2-3 bags of another 5-6 goals in the remaining rounds wont hurt his chances. More likely to need 3 BOG's in the next 5 rounds to have a be a medal contender for me. 2 BOG's might be worth a look at a Top 10 bet? The draw for Geelong is a pretty fair draw, without difficult teams.

Geelong run to the Finals:

@ Port Adelaide
Bulldogs
St.Kilda
@ Gold Coast
West Coast

Anyway with 5 rounds to go, do we all agree that Steele is too short to Win St.Kilda Most Votes?

 

[mozz23]

The Essendon v Gold Coast match in Rd 18 looks like the game where the 3 vote could go to a number of different players

BYB have Merrett and Redman as tied highest WAV at 2.5 votes. I dont think a Merrett is a shoe-in for the 3 votes here.

Red dog best on for mine

 

[Geeves Train]

The one that missed wouldn't happen to be Macrae round 6 against GWS would it?

****ING MACRAE

 

[teamlenny]

The one that missed wouldn't happen to be Macrae round 6 against GWS would it?

yep, he was $1.15

 

[NYRB]

yep, he was $1.15

You still didnt answer my previous question from a bit earlier.

Did you have experience with working in the bookmaker/sports betting scene before? You seem to pretty knowledgeable about the odds and so on. (Take it , as a good thing). My instinct is, you have worked in the bookmaker/sportsbook scene before.

Going back to what I said yesterday, for those Game by Game Brownlow markets, id very rarely touch odds on favourites. For me and a lot of people i dont find backing under evens particularly attractive to do. What you will find is there are quite a lot of punters that would be willing to touch these short odds or even in some cases put them in multis with each other. Id rather back a 6/1 winner than getting 20 x 1.10 shots right. Its just me and everyone else is different.

The reason why a bookmaker such as Sportsbet, and another agency (BetEasy) used to set 123-125% margins is , I feel , they wanted to leave themselves with some leeway, in case they were liable to error/exposure.

Anyway what I probably should have added is, if my expectation > bookies expectation by some considerable margin, thats when I would have a play. Often there would be 2-3 standout players I'd have a go on. (the percentage difference between what I expect and bookies offer, Id leave that to my own gut and there is no instinctive formula you would bet on).

 

[EFL Boy]

What do people have the following players on? Just want to see a general consensus…

Crisp/Daicos
Merrett/Parish
Coniglio/Kelly
Rozee/Wines
Bolton/Prestia
Sinclair/Steele

FWIW I have the following:

Crisp 12 Daicos 11
Parish 11 Merrett 9
Coniglio 8.5 Kelly 8.5
Rozee 14.5 Wines 13
Prestia 10 Bolton 9.5
Sinclair 9 Steele 8

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

What do people have the following players on? Just want to see a general consensus…

Crisp/Daicos
Merrett/Parish
Coniglio/Kelly
Rozee/Wines
Bolton/Prestia
Sinclair/Steele

FWIW I have the following:

Crisp 12 Daicos 11
Parish 11 Merrett 9
Coniglio 8.5 Kelly 8.5
Rozee 14.5 Wines 13
Prestia 10 Bolton 9.5
Sinclair 9 Steele 8

Crisp 13 /Daicos 10
Merrett 6/Parish 8
Coniglio 9/Kelly 4
Rozee 15/Wines 10
Bolton 10/Prestia 8
Sinclair 9/Steele 10

 

[chipins]

Crisp 10 - Daicos 11
Merrett 10 - Parish 13
Coniglio 13 - Kelly 5
Rozee 13 - Wines 11
Prestia 11 - Bolton 10
Sinclair 6 - Steele 10

 

[Frinkle]

FYI

Crisp 13 Daicos 8
Parish 11 Merrett 10
Coniglio 11 Kelly 8
Rozee 15 Wines 13
Prestia 8 Bolton 7 (baker 9)
Sinclair 7 Steele 9 (Gresham 11)

 

[benji21]

Crisp 12.33/ Daicos 11.5
Parish 12.67/ 11.33
Cogs 11.50/ Kelly 7.67
Rozee & Wines 12.50
Prestia 8.33/Bolton 8/Baker 9
Steele 13.67/Sinclair 8

 

[TheGamblor]

Crisp 10 N.Daicos 10
Parish 14 Merrett 7
Cogs 10 Kelly 7
Rozee 15 Wines 8
Prestia 8 Bolton 10
Sinclair 10 Steele 9

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Brayshaw had a chance to put some daylight in between the chasers and he let it slip away.

Neale, Clarry and Trac up next

 

[SirBont]

yeh does he poll tonight hard to say firmed a little bit in the betting I had 3 H Young 2 C Serong 1 D Prestia

 

[Frinkle]

yeh does he poll tonight hard to say firmed a little bit in the betting I had 3 H Young 2 C Serong 1 D Prestia

Hard game. If brayshaw wasn’t stuck on the bench for an eternity in the last he most likely would have had a late impact and polled, still could sneak 1 maybe.
But doesnt deserve it imo

I went
3-young
2-prestia
1- Clark

 

[Frinkle]

Hard game. If brayshaw wasn’t stuck on the bench for an eternity in the last he most likely would have had a late impact and polled, still could sneak 1 maybe.
But doesnt deserve it imo

I went
3-young
2-prestia
1- Clark

Wouldn’t be surprised if Bolton polls aswell. His few touches of brilliance stood out in a somewhat vanilla game

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Brayshaw doesn’t poll. Missed a couple of sitter goals. Goes unsighted a lot. Racks them up but not very damaging.

 

[The Brownlow Guru]

Had

3. Young
2. Prestia
1. Aish

In a game with shit skills on display I thought Aish was noticeably cleaner than most. Really though could raffle the 1 between 10 players.

 

[chipins]

Could be a biased opinion but
3 - R Laird
2 - N Blakey
1 - S Berry
Papley Parker Mills a little unlucky