AFL 2022 Brownlow Medal

[balmainforever]

anybody who posts bets after the count is over on Sunday without putting them up first WILL BE CARDED

 

[BOOYAH1987]

When can you multi the Brownlow Teams on Sportsbet? Also a market which I am looking forward too is the Pick your player votes multi.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Value has come and gone within the past month. (e.g. Laird $1.90 Top 20 & $11 Top 10 when they opened)

But yes, especially this week there's absolutely nothing.

Lynch at 10s this morning wasn't the worst

 

[invisible_]

Lynch at 10s this morning wasn't the worst

For top 20? That Must've gone very quickly

 

[Sausage Legs]

For top 20? That Must've gone very quickly

Yeah 10s, 9s, 7.50, 6, 4s, 1.83 within 5 mins.

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

Yeah 10s, 9s, 7.50, 6, 4s, 1.83 within 5 mins.

Like Brett Lee running through the Windies tail...

 

[Sausage Legs]

Pbet put out some ok ones yesty too

 

[SaiyanBaller]

Pointsbet Team Markets are out!
I'm liking this 4-Legger as a play @ $1.93:

Geelong Most Team Votes - Cameron
Port Adelaide Most Team Votes - Rozee
Carlton Most Team Votes - Cripps
North Melbourne Most Team Votes - LDU

With LDU is the main one that we will need to get over (Larkey the obstacle). But think we there's a decent shot this could get up.

 

[Bucking Bronco]

I'm not sure of the particulars of the Cripps/Curnow bet and when that $72,000 was offered or if it's still at $72,000 .
But generally speaking, bookies make profit on cash outs as they offer you odds that are their odds where they make their cut.
Also , it used to be they would offer less than that, but that may have changed.
I think most professional punters say you should generally not cash out as it's a losing move long term.

That's all well and good if you're a regular bettor who will find themselves in a similar situation many times in the future (with some of them winning) to make up for the instances where you don't cash out the positive EV bet and it loses.

How many times do you think a sporadic super-recreational bettor like this lady is going to find herself in this situation? Never.

In an instance like this I think you have to treat the bet in isolation, which IMO would mean cashing it out.

As someone else said, Betfair has the best odds, so I would recommend signing up with them and using like $1K-$1.5 of your cash out to put a bet up on Cripps at odds of $7.80 or $8.40 (they are actually odds of $7.50 and $8 due to the commission they charge - I know that is probably really confusing!).

No pro bettor would recommend putting $1K-$1.5K on Cripps after your cash out unless they thought there was value there still at those odds and the value necessitated that portion of their bankroll being assigned (I imagine you don't use a bankroll anyway), but in this instance, just for peace of mind as you are probably just a super reacreational bettor, I would put about 10% of your cash out on Cripps to win, as if he ended up winning I think you would be absolutely kicking yourself having missed out on an extra $60K.

With cash out and putting $1.5K on Cripps at $7.50 odds at Betfair:

If he wins: $20.25K profit

If he loses: $9K profit

Would seem like a happy medium to me. But trust your gut I guess!

 

[kicksome]

where abouts on pointsbet are the team markets? I cant seem to find them

edit: never mind i found it

 

[Spooka]

Find it a little odd Gresham is $15 most team votes but is $7 top 20, ahead of Sinclair and crouch

 

[SaiyanBaller]

Liking a sprinkle on Cripps too:

Top 3: $1.75 Pointsbet
Winner: $7 Playup

Just think he has the most near certain lock threes that it will be hard for him to have a low count. Should poll 24+ at least and be near the top all night.

 

[Spooka]

Liking a sprinkle on Cripps too:

Top 3: $1.75 Pointsbet
Winner: $7 Playup

Just think he has the most near certain lock threes that it will be hard for him to have a low count. Should poll 24+ at least and be near the top all night.
View attachment 1489432
View attachment 1489433

Who do you have winning?

 

[X_box_X]

Betfair have added additional markets today

 

[SaiyanBaller]

Who do you have winning?

Haven't added in Coach's Votes yet (waiting on it), but at this point I still have Neale winning as the most likely outcome. However, if he's unfortunate and hits his low range that night, could definitely still lose...

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

Liking a sprinkle on Cripps too:

Top 3: $1.75 Pointsbet
Winner: $7 Playup

Just think he has the most near certain lock threes that it will be hard for him to have a low count. Should poll 24+ at least and be near the top all night.
View attachment 1489432
View attachment 1489433

You're the GOAT for posting these, any chance you could post Petracca, Oliver, and even Brayshaw?

 

[The Brownlow Guru]

Coaches votes out now.

Rd 22



Rd 23



Very interesting one coach gave Neale 4 in rd 23.

 

[BigInsideMid]

Here is my top 20 count after R23. Trac is certainly an outlier in terms of betting markets but going to ride him for Top 3 @ $3.25.

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

1. L. Neale, C. Oliver, C. Petracca - 25
4. P. Cripps - 23
5. A. Brayshaw - 22
6. T. Miller - 21
7. C. Rozee - 19
8. D. Prestia - 17
9. S. Walsh, S. Bolton, H. McCluggage, C. Mills - 16
13. T. Lynch, C. Warner, J. Cameron - 15


I would be admittedly low on Cameron and Laird

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Rozee on 19? Have him on 12. Wines on 20.

First votes he got from me was round 9.

 

[EFL Boy]

Yeah, I personally have Rozee on 20, but feel he is one who could under-poll this year, with Wines taking some of those votes. If that's the case, then Wines at $4.50 for Top 10 could be a nice play.

Also for those complaining about the lack of value around, go have a look at TAB. They've been allowing team votes multis and there's still value with a few clubs.

 

[dontlimitme]

Love the spreadsheet could you please send to me?

lol at asking for his spreadsheet jesus christ

 

[EFL Boy]

I don't want to gate-keep the Brownlow Medal but petition to thread-ban anyone who pops up after Round 20ish next season.

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

Rozee on 19? Have him on 12. Wines on 20.

First votes he got from me was round 9.

You'd be all over Wines Top 10 @$4.50 then?

 

[BOOYAH1987]

lol at asking for his spreadsheet jesus christ

I’ve seen you ask everyone a million questions, toxic.

 

[Suncraze]

Anyone know where TJM is? Only reason I came here