2022 Hawthorn List Management Discussion (including Trade, FA period)

[Steven Tyler]

Wasn't everyone saying how strong this year's draft was going to be at about this time last year?

Happens every single year

 

[KermitJagger]

Wasn't everyone saying how strong this year's draft was going to be at about this time last year?

Not really. People said it was more of a midfielder heavy draft but not that it was stronger.

 

[arupist]

It's not 3 bites in a shallow draft. It's 2 this draft and one in an apparently stronger draft next season, plus I'm not sure the odds of them making a grand final again are that high after such a massive loss. We're probably more likely to end up with a pick between 12 and 16 than 17 or 18 and they're still valuable. Sydney would have to be crazy to offer it and we'd have to be even crazier not to take it.

This is all very well, and I get what you are saying. But it seems you have forgotten one very important issue.

We have just traded out our two most experienced mids, including a Brownlow medallist, FFS. It is more important than ever that we find a quality mid as soon as possible. We have that opportunity to do that this year with pick 6. And you want to trade it out? For what? Ask yourself why Sydney would want to do this. The only reason would be that they see someone available at 6 who is worth it, well beyond what they could get for the 3 picks they offer. I am pretty certain we need such a player more than they do.

Such a trade would set us back 12 months.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

We’d be negligent not to take it, to be honest.

Turning 1 first round pick into 3? Swans would be mad to do it, by the way. No way that’s real.

This would only happen on draft night:

IF GCS haven't already taken Humphrey and IF Tsatas hasn't slid (based on what you've said about us not taking a second to call out his name if he was available).

If we were to accept that trade then there will be a nervous wait to see if George lasts to our first pick in the teens.

Can't see it being three firsts for our pick six. Surely we'd have to give something back too, like one of our 2023 second rounders.

 

[FB19]

This would only happen on draft night:

IF GCS haven't already taken Humphrey and IF Tsatas hasn't slid (based on what you've said about us not taking a second to call out his name if he was available).

If we were to accept that trade then there will be a nervous wait to see if George lasts to our first pick in the teens.

Can't see it being three firsts for our pick six. Surely we'd have to give something back too, like one of our 2023 second rounders.

Then add 42 as that enables enough points to trade up for 22 and 36 as well. 6 and dogs f2 for 14,17,42 and f1. Don’t think they’d do it but they may have a SoS moment you never know…

 

[HedgeFund]

I'm with TD. Three bites of a pork chop is not as good as one bite of a rib-eye.

If your eye fillet bite is Fischer McAsey (pick 6 - 2019) and your first pork chop bite is Miles Bergman (pick 14 - 2019) then I’d respectfully disagree.

In 2020 it was DGB -v- Heath Chapman. Probably a dead heat there.

I’d go with volume myself. We still have a fair bit a dead wood floating around.

 

[TylerDurden]

Ask yourself, if Sydney want to do this, why?

They are one of the best run clubs in it. Clearly they know the talent drops off around our pick. They're not dumb. And they certainly aren't in the business of doing other clubs favours.

 

[Blackhawk42]

14: Hollands
17: George
24: Burgiel?

It's a tempting concept as opposed to the 6/24 combo.

Hollands looked like a top 10 pick in the Championship final and has the endurance quality we've been prioritising in our recruiting.

Unfortunately we don't have a selection in his draft range.

 

[matey]

Ask yourself, if Sydney want to do this, why?

They are one of the best run clubs in it. Clearly they know the talent drops off around our pick. They're not dumb. And they certainly aren't in the business of doing other clubs favours.

Agree with you TD. Because the Swans know after Tsatas/Poo/McKenzie it drops off dramatically! Next year ……… Swans will probably be good again and every year we hear next years crop is better blah blah blah. We need quality, gun kids now!!!!!! No way we trade our first for picks in the teens.

 

[SunshineHawkCal]

14: Hollands
17: George
24: Burgiel?

It's a tempting concept as opposed to the 6/24 combo.

Hollands looked like a top 10 pick in the Championship final and has the endurance quality we've been prioritising in our recruiting.

Unfortunately we don't have a selection in his draft range.

Not enough Munkara for me

 

[TylerDurden]

Not enough Munkara for me

Pick 39. Fist pump.

 

[MrPremiership]

Ask yourself, if Sydney want to do this, why?

They are one of the best run clubs in it. Clearly they know the talent drops off around our pick. They're not dumb. And they certainly aren't in the business of doing other clubs favours.

Maybe, but the two clubs are in completely different phases.

We badly need any talent, so 2 picks inside 17 is more appealing to Sydney, who are really happy with their core list, and just looking for one more crack at elite talent, so 6 is far more valuable than the 2 other picks

Then there is also the issue with list spots

 

[burner1]

Ask yourself, if Sydney want to do this, why?

They are one of the best run clubs in it. Clearly they know the talent drops off around our pick. They're not dumb. And they certainly aren't in the business of doing other clubs favours.

Because they are not short of talent overall - but short of talent in specific areas (eg grunt around ball). A big bodied mid like Humphrey or even ginbey more helpful than what they’ll get in 14 and 17 (when they’ve got guys like Campbell in 2’s). We are in a very different list situation - gaps everywhere + will likely be getting early picks for a while yet.

Also every trade needs two willing parties. Can be a fair / equitable trade.

 

[KermitJagger]

This is all very well, and I get what you are saying. But it seems you have forgotten one very important issue.

We have just traded out our two most experienced mids, including a Brownlow medallist, FFS. It is more important than ever that we find a quality mid as soon as possible. We have that opportunity to do that this year with pick 6. And you want to trade it out? For what? Ask yourself why Sydney would want to do this. The only reason would be that they see someone available at 6 who is worth it, well beyond what they could get for the 3 picks they offer. I am pretty certain we need such a player more than they do.

Such a trade would set us back 12 months.

It'd set us back 12 months to have 3 first round picks instead of 1?

Clubs take risks with trades all the time. Plenty of clubs have traded out future picks by betting that they'll have a good season only for it to backfire, or overpay for a single piece because they feel it'll be the difference.

You're all treating Pick 6 like it's Pick 1 because we've been talking about it so long and you're attached to the prospects everyone has been talking about at that pick.

 

[arupist]

It'd set us back 12 months to have 3 first round picks instead of 1?

Clubs take risks with trades all the time. Plenty of clubs have traded out future picks by betting that they'll have a good season only for it to backfire, or overpay for a single piece because they feel it'll be the difference.

You're all treating Pick 6 like it's Pick 1 because we've been talking about it so long and you're attached to the prospects everyone has been talking about at that pick.

I was quite happy to discuss this with someone who has an opinion and willing to argue his case. Then I read your last sentence. Now I know you are just taking the p!ss.

 

[daniel23]

You would have to do it, It's not as if there is a clear cut pick 6 anyway unless tsatas slides. At times we have mentioned we would be happy with any of Humphrey, Clarke, McKenzie, phillipou, ginbey and even Jefferson . There is a possibility one of those gets through to 14 with busslinger,Hayes,hollands and Hewitt likely to interest other teams around us.

The future first is the big win, not only for trade capital but to be able to package up picks to move up the order again.

 

[Scrads]

I'm on team multiple firsts v one higher one but would only do it once Tsatas has been picked. If he slides that may be the only exception.

 

[TylerDurden]

It will be a live trade anyway. Should Tsatas slide, depending on where we rank him (let's say pick 2), I still can't see us doing it.

 

[TylerDurden]

Maybe, but the two clubs are in completely different phases.

We badly need any talent, so 2 picks inside 17 is more appealing to Sydney, who are really happy with their core list, and just looking for one more crack at elite talent, so 6 is far more valuable than the 2 other picks

Then there is also the issue with list spots

I'd say we need elite talent more than they do.

No use plugging holes with players that aren't elite.

 

[arupist]

Maybe, but the two clubs are in completely different phases.

We badly need any talent, so 2 picks inside 17 is more appealing to Sydney, who are really happy with their core list, and just looking for one more crack at elite talent, so 6 is far more valuable than the 2 other picks

Then there is also the issue with list spots

But isn't that the exact need we have (albeit we need one more crack after this)?

 

[nelk boys]

I was quite happy to discuss this with someone who has an opinion and willing to argue his case. Then I read your last sentence. Now I know you are just taking the p!ss.

You'd be trading Mckenzie/Philipou/Clark for 2 of Hotton/George/Cowan or Hollands if he lasted. Plus a future first from Sydney, reckon they will finish around 10th. So maybe a Dursma if he lasted which is unlikely, more likely a Lorenz who is very promising.

Sydney would likely want a second back, which is why it would probably never happen.

 

[H00t]

Not really. People said it was more of a midfielder heavy draft but not that it was stronger.

I might be misremembering here. But I’m pretty sure outside the excitement of Wardlaw, Ashcroft and Tsatas. The general feeling was concern about these guys not having played much footy at all.

 

[H00t]

I'd say we need elite talent more than they do.

No use plugging holes with players that aren't elite.

If we had any pick from 1-4. I certainly wouldn’t do the trade. That would guarantee us one of Sheezel, Wardlaw or Tsatas. But with all of them gone. So does the elite part of this draft.

Giving us 3 picks inside 20 means we more likely end up with the best player from the deal straight out. Especially with MM’s drafting.

Also looking at the previous draft history. Picks 6-10 play 128 games and picks 11-20 play 120 games. Percentage of AA’s is pretty close as well.

If it was 2 picks it’s more lineball. But 3 I’d do it without a doubt. It’s a bit like North last year. Someone offers overs you take it.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

If your eye fillet bite is Fischer McAsey (pick 6 - 2019) and your first pork chop bite is Miles Bergman (pick 14 - 2019) then I’d respectfully disagree.

In 2020 it was DGB -v- Heath Chapman. Probably a dead heat there.

I’d go with volume myself. We still have a fair bit a dead wood floating around.

These comparisons are cherry picked.

It's likely to be a Jordan Lewis vs a Andrew McQualter, Cameron Wood, Adam Pattison, Ryan Willis.

Or a Pendles vs a Travis Varcoe, Richard Douglas, Darren Pfieffer, Max Bailey, Courtney Dempsey.

Or a Selwood vs a James Sellars, Daniel O'Keeffe, Mitch Brown, Shaun Hampson, Leroy Jetta, Shaun Grigg.

 

[FB19]

Unfortunately Sydney are quoting the bowes deal and insist if we are giving pick 6 then they also need a slightly worse player than Jack Bowes

12

Jack Bowes

Age

26

Ht

189cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.3

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

6.6

4star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.5

4star

MG

318.1

4star

D

18.0

4star

K

11.8

5star

HB

6.3

4star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.1

2star

MG

318.1

4star

D

11.6

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.4

4star

included and they will give us their future 3rd.