Game Day 2023 AFL Draft - The Late Male Edition

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Of all the things to get pissed off about that really are unequal and influence the outcomes of flags, like the fixture, or like Collingwood playing 15 games a year at the same venue the grand final is played at, this fixation on your draft pick moving back a few places due to bids is disproportionate.
It's 5+ years old now from 2017, but the graph below shows the number of players reaching X axis of AFL games played, by draft pick, as a survival function. Basically after pick 10, there is very little difference between the tiers of picks.
So, if you are going to do something about the bidding for academy, father son etc - eliminate it for the top 10, then allow, would be a simple solution yielding the right result. And never give free agent or other compo in the top 10. Problem solved.

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Is there any sunk cost fallacy that's involved in a Top 10 pick though?

(Good data btw 👏)
 
Possible solutions to fixing bids (all forms of bids)
1) Remove the discount (non-negotiable)
2) Limit of one bid match a round
3) Either you must have a pick in the round you match a bid or within 10 picks of the placed bid (this and 2 basically completely fixes how compromised it's become).
4) Only GC or GWS can match a top 10 bid (I am ok with those two clubs getting A BIT of help)
5) Possibly add tiers to the F/S matching. 300 games, can match any pick, 200 games outside the top 10, 100 games outside the top 20. I do really like kids of club legends playing at their dads club
Scrap the draft all together and make it an auction. With the current system the wooden spoon team gets picks 1, 19, 37, 55, and 73 worth 4647 points. The premiers get picks 18, 36, 54, and 72 worth 1726 points. Scrap the picks and have the teams just get the points. They use those points however they want.

This system has the bonus of being able to trade players for simple points instead of trying to find a pick that matches the player. It is also fairer across years IMO. For instance although Rayner and Reid are both number 1 picks one was rated much high in his draft, so one team gets a bigger reward for coming last, but an auction can more accurately reflect a rookies worth.
 

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Carlton or Saints to take Edwards…. Because they both love to stuff our drafting

Sure it’s been raised but if Eagles choose Edwards at 40 can we match?
 
Is there any sunk cost fallacy that's involved in a Top 10 pick though?

(Good data btw 👏)

Well I guess there could be, but it's impossible to prove. And indeed if there was, and 1-10 picks were gifted undeserved games, wouldn't that be more evidence the current system is fine and the angst is misplaced, since the 1-10 graph would move down and to the left? Whereas I think there might be a legitimate beef about the top 10, but after that it's nigh on meaningless in the grand scheme of things
 
Sure it's a bonus if Edwards slides, but he isn't a need. We have plenty of rucks. According to Walls we are supposed to be targeting forwards in this draft. So far we have brought in a defender, Oscar McDonald and a wingman, Jeremy Sharp.
 
Well I guess there could be, but it's impossible to prove. And indeed if there was, and 1-10 picks were gifted undeserved games, wouldn't that be more evidence the current system is fine and the angst is misplaced, since the 1-10 graph would move down and to the left?
I've actually got a completely different view to the world here, that the players getting bidded on flat out wouldn't exist without the system as it is. The system currently is creating more Queenslanders and NSW players... and that's a good thing overall.

However I do want it revisited in 10 years time when we reach a point where the Allies dominate
and need to be split apart.

So even though they're getting 'picked', I view it as players that clubs never would have access to under the old system.

I do want all clubs to get NGA's but it needs to be both parents multicultural in metro areas (and indigenous in regional areas). Actually force clubs to try put some actual effort in getting people of Indian or a Chinese background involved, or develop the regions. Again if I use my logic above I wouldn't care about priority access, because without the hypothetical properly functioning NGA those players weren't existing without the clubs development so I don't mind that clubs get priority access.

So long answer, but I don't actually think there's much of a problem tbh. Freo aren't in this position if they traded better for Jackson. Dare I say it I don't want the system to change, just tighten up NGA eligibility and its purpose, and allow it to be how it was with JUH's draft.
 
It was actually 33, 7 and 15 for Jackson, 42 and 57
Pick 34 not 33
Pretty sure the Cats held our 25?

North PP -> Freo -> Port -> Cats for Esava in the last couple hours of trade period


Then Cats had no time to do other trades and noone traded in that pre draft pick swap period?

Cats still hold that pick and its been pushed to 32
correct sorry. It is 32. Something I read had it allocated to GCS.
 

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Players of interest remaining on board (small or interesting forwards / players with speed):
Cooper Simpson
Jack Delean
Logan Morris
Koen Sanchez
Jack Callinan
Archie Roberts
Aiden O'Driscoll
Zane Zakosteltsky
Joel Freijah
Luke Lloyd
Ry Cantwell
Joe Fonti
Sam Van Rooyen
Shaun Mannagh
 
Think our trade earlier today is a sign we'll draft someone other clubs have little interest in.

Wouldn't mind trying to flick a F3 or F4 to Gold Coast for a selection they won't use though (they're done so a pick in the 50s would basically be seen as nothing). Would good as make sure we get said player.
 
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Think I read someone he has great hands so they may try and turn him into a marking forward. Not sure why Wallsy thinks he is a good chance to get to us. Maybe he has some intel.
Yes - good hands, decent on a lead and decent set shot, also reasonably athletic for a big guy. Both he and Archer Reid are thereabouts if we want a tall forward that can ruck. There were rumors back in April / May that suggested clubs would avoid him for reasons, but also ruckmen, like rovers, only have so much of a market each year. Anyway not surprised he is still on the board come day 2.

For the record, I reckon we will draft Zakotelsky and Mannagh if we can, just not sure in which order. Contrary to other opinions I think there is interest from other clubs around the mark of our first pick on both. ZZ is not a need (although I can see him becoming a key full back strong in 1-1s which may be useful) but he is versatile, athletic, with a good work ethic and I really think he has a good chance to make it big time whatever club he goes to.

If it were me picking I would try and get Hastie with our first if still available (great size, just moves through traffic well and has a turn of speed) - don't think we will go that way though. I like Fonti as a speedster outside option too but I question whether anyone else is interested and hence whether he could fall to the rookie list? Would be happy with Sanchez and Delean too but I just don't see us going that way; Delean in particular has good goal sense and skills; Sanchez is more versatile. Sound like Harvey Thomas is more our go.
 

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Game Day 2023 AFL Draft - The Late Male Edition

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