AFL 2023 AFL Finals - Week 1

[balmainforever]

 

[toenail11]

Curnow 3
Ags - heeney, Hayward, Martin,Owies
20+ cerra, Newman,Warner, Parker
@17 pb

 

[BloodRet]

I know.. it hurt betting against BloodRet

Fire the **** uppppppppppp

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

What were the coaches votes from last night?

 

[dontlimitme]

haywards been good to me all year no way im letting him go untrained in a final

2/3/4 @ 4.8/17/81 on sb

 

[BloodRet]

Heeney 4 5 @18 51 ts

Logan 5 @81

Paps 5 @ 51

 

[Selim]

Multipliers

Mckay OVER 45

Docherty OVER 45

Martin OVER 34

Amartey OVER 30

Hayward OVER 34

Parker OVER 45

 

[NYRB]

AFL Fantasy Multi: Carlton v Sydney

Last time Heeney and Rowbottom led the tackle count. The below selections in the last match all of these lines came through. Gulden was in my AFL Fantasy and now the players dont care about Fantasy Points. Feel like this line is based on the AFL regular season averages rather than the moment and how much harder AFL Fantasy Points are in the Playoffs. Have chucked in Blakey as smokey to boost the odds as he has the 2nd highest AFL Fantasy points last time these two teams played. Papley conditions should suit and a couple of goals alone from here and his usual possessions in the teens should help him cover that line. Can see all the players getting above 80 Fantasy Points and maybe Gulden finding it slightly harder to hit the ton mark tonight.

Gulden Under 114.5 AFL Fantasy Points
Heeney Over 79.5 AFL Fantasy Points
Rowbottom Over 78.5 AFL Fantasy Points
Blakey 80+ AFL Fantasy Points
Papley 70+ AFL Fantasy Points

Odds: $32.59 at PointsBet


My pre-lines for the first 3 were around: Gulden 107.5, Heeney 84.5, Rowbottom 72.5.

 

[ferrisb]

Some whacky player stat combos on SB

S.Walsh 15+ hb/A.Cerra 6+marks/L.Fogarty 6+ tckl @ $67

Not looking at form, weather, team lineups etc, but just on pure 2023 numbers

Walsh has hit 11/15
Cerra 4/19
Fogarty 4/9

Combining the odds gives about 6.9% chance of happening. Which would equate to odds of $14.60.

L.Parker 10+ kicks/S.Walsh 6+marks/A.Cerra 6+ tckl @ $76

Historical data says 7.7% or $13. I hit that with a small bonus and was going back for more but its not suspended.

Will report back if I find more...

Note: Given the weather and finals atmosphere, will try to find ones with easier mark lines and harder tackle lines.

 

[dontlimitme]

BloodRet how fired up are you right now

 

[anabac]

Have been on the beers and lost a bit playing $5 hits on the brickies laptop after work so have put far too much on this multi to try and get it all back

AGS - Heeney and McKay
20+ - Cripps and Warner

$2.40 Ladbrokes

 

[dontlimitme]

and McKay

 

[Areyoufireal]

PB spreads;
Over Gulden 133
Over Parker 48

McLean / McDonald 2 goals each @ 9s BB if any leg fails

 

[NYRB]

Some whacky player stat combos on SB

S.Walsh 15+ hb/A.Cerra 6+marks/L.Fogarty 6+ tckl @ $67

Not looking at form, weather, team lineups etc, but just on pure 2023 numbers

Walsh has hit 11/15
Cerra 4/19
Fogarty 4/9

Combining the odds gives about 6.9% chance of happening. Which would equate to odds of $14.60.

L.Parker 10+ kicks/S.Walsh 6+marks/A.Cerra 6+ tckl @ $76

Historical data says 7.7% or $13. I hit that with a small bonus and was going back for more but its not suspended.

Will report back if I find more...

Note: Given the weather and finals atmosphere, will try to find ones with easier mark lines and harder tackle lines.

That $76 has been taken off on Sportsbet at the time of writing

 

[ferrisb]

That $76 has been taken off on Sportsbet at the time of writing

Yeah, I meant it was suspended.

A.Cerra 10+ kicks/E.Gulden 15+hb/I.Heeney 4+ tckl @ 41.00

Odds say should be ~ $29.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Docherty 2 goals @ 23 365

SGM
Docherty
Cerra
Cripps

@ 26 365

 

[Areyoufireal]

PB spreads;
Over Gulden 133
Over Parker 48

McLean / McDonald 2 goals each @ 9s BB if any leg fails

Will add; L.Parker 15+ kicks/C.Warner 10+hb/C.Mills 4+ tckl @20s

 

[NYRB]

Nick Blakey

22

Nick Blakey

Age

24

Ht

196cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.9

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

2.9

3star

M

2.3

2star

T

2.4

4star

MG

189.1

3star

D

8.1

2star

K

6.3

3star

HB

1.9

1star

M

2.1

2star

T

2.6

4star

MG

189.1

3star

D

7.2

2star

K

5.2

2star

HB

2.0

2star

M

1.2

2star

T

1.2

3star

more possessions than Adam Saad

42

Adam Saad

Age

30

Ht

178cm

Wt

79kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.5

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

7.5

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.7

4star

MG

349.1

5star

D

20.7

5star

K

12.0

5star

HB

8.7

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.4

3star

MG

388.3

5star

D

17.6

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

7.2

5star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.2

3star

at $2.08

 

[dontlimitme]

Docherty 2 goals @ 23 365

SGM
Docherty
Cerra
Cripps

@ 26 365

 

[Selim]

Docherty OVER 45

Sheesh we love that early goal

 

[dontlimitme]

heeney playing mid lol

 

[tangolikelama]

I swear to god campaigner if Blakey is out already....

 

[dontlimitme]

mckay so pure

 

[rank and file]

Have been on the beers and lost a bit playing $5 hits on the brickies laptop after work so have put far too much on this multi to try and get it all back

AGS - Heeney and McKay
20+ - Cripps and Warner

$2.40 Ladbrokes

McKay gonna make you sweat.

 

[tangolikelama]

These campaigners are so ****ing dumb I swear

 

[tangolikelama]

Can Papsmear get a goal or two?