balmainforever
Dibs
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AFL 2023 - AFL Round 1
- Thread starter balmainforever
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GROTTO
TheBrownDog
- Jul 5, 2013
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I wonder how many will jump on mouncey2franklin very first train for R1 2023.*patiently waiting for mouncy2franklins round 1 goal kicker trains
- May 20, 2016
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- Sep 20, 2016
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- Liverpool, Red Sox, Philly Eagles
Won't be touching the Port/Lions or Saints/Freo games.
Yeah lions look value, should slap port
Lions $2 and $10 for 40+
Suns I expect to beat the Swans. Witts will have a field day. Couple of things going Suns way - start seasons well and play the Swans well (4-2 in last 6 v Swans, had a 50% record or better after 4 rounds in 5 of the last 6 seasons - they just fall off a cliff after).
North/Eagles and Essendon/Hawks are no touch games for me - expect Eagles and Essendon to win but it’s 4 shit teams.
Freo should win too. No King, Membrey interrupted pre-season, Saints lost a lot of role players with Billings, Jones, Windhanger, Hayes also out.
Lions
Freo
Suns
Every other game I’m not real keen on
Suns I expect to beat the Swans. Witts will have a field day. Couple of things going Suns way - start seasons well and play the Swans well (4-2 in last 6 v Swans, had a 50% record or better after 4 rounds in 5 of the last 6 seasons - they just fall off a cliff after).
North/Eagles and Essendon/Hawks are no touch games for me - expect Eagles and Essendon to win but it’s 4 shit teams.
Freo should win too. No King, Membrey interrupted pre-season, Saints lost a lot of role players with Billings, Jones, Windhanger, Hayes also out.
Lions
Freo
Suns
Every other game I’m not real keen on
- Sep 20, 2016
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Actually like Pies at the H2H.
- Dec 2, 2017
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GROTTO
TheBrownDog
- Jul 5, 2013
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Is De Goey, De Gone for R1 for that hit over the weekend?
- Mar 27, 2018
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Freo -3.5 looks good. Saints have a list of key injuries, Freo are relatively healthy and should have an improved team, Saints on the other hand look to be trending in the opposite direction.
- Feb 25, 2013
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When are the totals markets likely to be released?
Second this!
Been monitoring a few match ups for round 1 over preseason and have settled on the following two bets, which I reckon most people are already all over. Had a few other match ups that I was keen on, but want to get a better gauge on teams over round 1.
2u - Brisbane - $2.10 - Betr
This is the last of these odds available. Brisbane are into $1.90 in some places already and look to be heading into favouritism, so grabbing the value now and living with the result/edge. They've been the hype team this preseason, and so far on form they've delivered. Dunkley and Gunston are huge additions, and Ashcroft looks to be better than we expected. The addition of Mckenna is also going to provide some much need run and carry off of half back. Port look as though they are going to attempt to move the ball a lot quicker and through the corridor in 2023, as a result is going to make them a bit more susceptible from turnovers whilst they develop this early in the season. Whilst Port should be stronger ahead of the ball in 2023 they look to be falling away a bit defensively and look as though they are going to go in undersized agains the likes of Daniher, Fort, Gunston, and Hipwood.
2.5u - Fremantle -2.5 - $1.90 - BlueBet (-3.5 on 365 is next best)
The Saints look to be in a bit of strife early this season with injuries to Billings, Jones, Hayes, Widhager, and King all expected to miss round one. Add to that Membrey is currently a close watch and they are now without Paddy Ryder and forced to play Marshall as a solo ruck. Losing the double ruck combo has often caused problems for the Saints as it has meant they are unable to rotate one of their big men forward, this will be even more noticeable in round 1 with the absence of King, Hayes and potentially Membrey. Freo have looked great this preseason and showed in 2022 that travel isn't of concern to them anymore going 7-1-2 in games away from home. They've also done some tidy work at the trade table adding O'Meara and Jackson. The inclusion of O'Meara has enabled them to move Fyfe into the forward line to add some much needed support for Taberner and now Jackson. With Freo making the 8 last year, winning games like this one is a must. Expecting this one to continue moving and has every chance stretching out beyond a goal.
- Feb 25, 2013
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Just going with Brisbane and 40+ against Port. Won their last 5 on Port, Brisbane's list gotten significantly better, Dunkley is the second best contested ball winner in the league to Oliver, Ashcroft a jet and Gunston a star. Read the Port board and they are all incredibly negative on Port based on their really poor preseason game showings. I went to a Port training session as it was down the road and the intensity was very low, and their BF board seems to think similar accrorss the summer. The more I read the sack hinkley thread, the more confident I feel. Meanwhile Brisbane took care of Sydney and Geelong by 46 and 45 points.
Reckon Hawks get up vs Essendon. Essendon's playing some weird slow game plan while the Hawks have a much more exciting brand. Essendon went on a run last year but they fell apart when Merrett was tagged, Fin Mag will probably clamp in badly. No bet just what I'd tip.
Reckon Hawks get up vs Essendon. Essendon's playing some weird slow game plan while the Hawks have a much more exciting brand. Essendon went on a run last year but they fell apart when Merrett was tagged, Fin Mag will probably clamp in badly. No bet just what I'd tip.
- Aug 3, 2020
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Good to be back lads, look forward to the Rd 1 trains 
- Jul 11, 2012
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I’ll be keeping an eye on Merrett over/under disposal market. We are almost certain to send Finn to him. Mitchell loves to tag someone, especially during the back half of the season last year, and even last weeks practice game v the pies, he went straight to Daicos and didn’t move all game.
Up And Degoey is Playing Rd 1
Literally just seen this post copied word for word somewhere else. At least change the write up or take current lines/prices if you’re going to steal it...
Suncraze?
I had to laugh at this, well done
