balmainforever
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AFL 2023 - AFL Round 10 (Sir Doug Nicholls Round - part 1)
- Thread starter balmainforever
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tailed. Hopefully he has a birthday
First time post. Been tailing the odd play here and love the banter.
GWS have Kieran Briggs coming in, has chalked up 15+ disposals in his last 8 VFL matches at an average of 19. GWS and Saints the leading disposals teams in the comp and GWS at home. 15+ disposals paying 6.50 at bet365 and 5.00 over at TAB.
GWS have Kieran Briggs coming in, has chalked up 15+ disposals in his last 8 VFL matches at an average of 19. GWS and Saints the leading disposals teams in the comp and GWS at home. 15+ disposals paying 6.50 at bet365 and 5.00 over at TAB.
_ASP3X
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Tailed the new guy for 2u @ $6.50
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Barrass is a huge loss for West Coast as mentioned by HTPunter. Barrass took 18 marks last year against Hawks. Dont think West Coast have that great intercept marks down back without: Barrass, Hurn, Shuey and McGovern.
West Coast defence looks a bit undersized, inexperienced and a little bit light at the back. Im assuming Mitch Lewis plays on Harry Edwards today, Koschitzke gets Bazzo. Harry Edwards doesnt move as good to Lewis compared.
Surely if there is a game Koschitzke fires, its a game like today. He has been a player that has let me down quite a bit in the past. This is a ground he performs best in the AFL as well. (Best Goal per game ratio) Match up wise, I dont think Rhett Bazzo will be strong enough to play 1 on 1 against him . Only weights 86 kilograms and gives up a centimetre or so in height.
So Ill go the Sportsbet Free hit
Mitch Lewis 3+ Goals
Koschitzke 2+ Goals
Waterman 2+ Goals
Odds: $8.50
Ive taken a slightly modified bet at PointsBet, which pays better odds and requires one less goal:
Mitch Lewis 2+ Goals
Koschitzke 2+ Goals
Waterman 2+ Goals
Odds: $9.34
Ive also done doubles for Mitch Lewis 3+ Goals, Koschitzke 2+ Goals, Waterman 2+ Goals. (at TopSport)
And this is a bit more of speculative play since Nash has been named in the forward line and can use his 198 centimetre to stretch that undermanned West Coast defence.
Mitch Lewis 2+ Goals
Koschitzke 2+ Goals
Waterman 2+ Goals
Nash Anytime Goalscorer
Odds: $37.03 (PointsBet)
And in case its a low scoring game, can see each of these getting on the scoreboard. I think Hawthorn may look to go more to Brockman today since its the Sir Doug Nicholls round.
Under 169.5 Total Match Points
Brockman 2+ Goals
Petruccelle Anytime Goalscorer
Dylan Moore Anytime Goalscorer
Odds: $27 (PointsBet)
West Coast defence looks a bit undersized, inexperienced and a little bit light at the back. Im assuming Mitch Lewis plays on Harry Edwards today, Koschitzke gets Bazzo. Harry Edwards doesnt move as good to Lewis compared.
Surely if there is a game Koschitzke fires, its a game like today. He has been a player that has let me down quite a bit in the past. This is a ground he performs best in the AFL as well. (Best Goal per game ratio) Match up wise, I dont think Rhett Bazzo will be strong enough to play 1 on 1 against him . Only weights 86 kilograms and gives up a centimetre or so in height.
So Ill go the Sportsbet Free hit
Mitch Lewis 3+ Goals
Koschitzke 2+ Goals
Waterman 2+ Goals
Odds: $8.50
Ive taken a slightly modified bet at PointsBet, which pays better odds and requires one less goal:
Mitch Lewis 2+ Goals
Koschitzke 2+ Goals
Waterman 2+ Goals
Odds: $9.34
Ive also done doubles for Mitch Lewis 3+ Goals, Koschitzke 2+ Goals, Waterman 2+ Goals. (at TopSport)
And this is a bit more of speculative play since Nash has been named in the forward line and can use his 198 centimetre to stretch that undermanned West Coast defence.
Mitch Lewis 2+ Goals
Koschitzke 2+ Goals
Waterman 2+ Goals
Nash Anytime Goalscorer
Odds: $37.03 (PointsBet)
And in case its a low scoring game, can see each of these getting on the scoreboard. I think Hawthorn may look to go more to Brockman today since its the Sir Doug Nicholls round.
Under 169.5 Total Match Points
Brockman 2+ Goals
Petruccelle Anytime Goalscorer
Dylan Moore Anytime Goalscorer
Odds: $27 (PointsBet)
Last edited:
- Aug 16, 2009
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Anyone else get some completely busted cashout offers in the last quarter of the Brisbane GC game on SB last night? Had this dumb bet which was completely cooked sitting at $0 cashout then all of a sudden spiked massively. Another mate had something similar. Guessing someone at SB is getting the ass today
Full degen bet for today, Lewis & Allen goal each quarter $128 SB
Full degen bet for today, Lewis & Allen goal each quarter $128 SB
wowee happy with that
- Sep 12, 2013
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Carlton +18.5
Cripps 25
Curnow 2 goals
2.70 @ TAB
Also on McKay 3-5
3.75, 10 and 28 on 365
Can’t pass up a Coleman Medalist after the media has been on his case all week. Fully expecting him to kick 1.3 (2 out of bounds)
Cripps 25
Curnow 2 goals
2.70 @ TAB
Also on McKay 3-5
3.75, 10 and 28 on 365
Can’t pass up a Coleman Medalist after the media has been on his case all week. Fully expecting him to kick 1.3 (2 out of bounds)
I don't mind this guy
Xavier O'Halloran
Kicked 1.3 against the pies last week and I'm expecting GWS to be more competitive at home vs stkilda.
Over the last 4 matches he's had 12 scoring shots.
2+ $4.75
3+ $12
B365.
Here is his heat map from last week
Xavier O'Halloran
Kicked 1.3 against the pies last week and I'm expecting GWS to be more competitive at home vs stkilda.
Over the last 4 matches he's had 12 scoring shots.
2+ $4.75
3+ $12
B365.
Here is his heat map from last week
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badusername
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Hm. Was going to tail but could only find him in the goal scoring markets on B365.
_ASP3X
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Look under the SGM tab and go down to disposals and scroll left to 15+.
badusername
Team Captain
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Oh! Didn't even know you could scroll left. Thank you (or damn you) depending on the result.
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Hawthorn v West Coast PointsBet Stat Multiplier Spreads (Goals x Kicks x Handballs). A few tips using $1 stakes and some reasoning behind the bets. I didnt find too much value on any of the Hawks players on the 'OVERS'. It seems like all the players lines are higher probably based on the likelihood that Hawthorn win today and win well. Hawthorn also dont traditionally score high on the stat multiplier.
Dylan Moore- NO PLAY
Breust- NO PLAY
Amon UNDER 65- 36 of his last 54 he has landed on the under. I also dont see him scoring a goal today.
Newcombe- NO PLAY
Day UNDER 60- 26 of last 29 has landed on the Under. A bit like Amon , I also dont see him scoring a goal today. I know his role has slightly changed this year, resulting him scoring in a couple of games this year but Ill back my stats and say the law of averages say he doesnt score today.
Koschitzke NO PLAY- can see him scoring a couple of goals today but not a heavy disposal getter.
Lewis UNDER 105- this is the best 'unders' play today for me. Averages 3.59 handballs a game over his last 3 seasons. I can see a situation where he might kicks 4 goals and get around 4 handballs and this still going the under.
Impey UNDER 37- With an average of 10 or so in the last 3 seasons, the under is the play here.
Nash NO PLAY
Sam Butler UNDER 35- this is maybe a guess but I honestly havent seen him play too much. The stats suggest even if he kicks 2 goals, there wont be too much damage. And anyone that can convince me he will have a big one, I may take him off my radar, as there is limited data/games on him.
Tim Kelly NO PLAY- i can see a world where he scores a goal today but not willing to play a line that is about 70 pts higher or so. There are better bets going around today.
Gaff NO PLAY- I dont see him scoring a goal today, despite him playing well against Hawks in the past.
Waterman NO PLAY- he has won me coin in the pass but this line is about 40-45 too high I feel.
West NO PLAY- not really a great ceiling for a player like him.
Petruccelle OVER 35- Ill have a go on him today. A goal probably sees him land somewhere in the middle or overs today. Ive got him banked for a goal.
Sheed OVER 69- Its a play based on averages, I dont have him scoring a goal today but at that line Ill have a play.
Bailey Williams UNDER 26- the numbers suggest the under is the play. Only gone above 32 on the stat multiplier in 2 of his last 32 games. I dont see him scoring a goal today. West Coast arent known for their quality in rucking department, I feel Like Lloyd Meek might have a good game today.
Dylan Moore- NO PLAY
Breust- NO PLAY
Amon UNDER 65- 36 of his last 54 he has landed on the under. I also dont see him scoring a goal today.
Newcombe- NO PLAY
Day UNDER 60- 26 of last 29 has landed on the Under. A bit like Amon , I also dont see him scoring a goal today. I know his role has slightly changed this year, resulting him scoring in a couple of games this year but Ill back my stats and say the law of averages say he doesnt score today.
Koschitzke NO PLAY- can see him scoring a couple of goals today but not a heavy disposal getter.
Lewis UNDER 105- this is the best 'unders' play today for me. Averages 3.59 handballs a game over his last 3 seasons. I can see a situation where he might kicks 4 goals and get around 4 handballs and this still going the under.
Impey UNDER 37- With an average of 10 or so in the last 3 seasons, the under is the play here.
Nash NO PLAY
Tim Kelly NO PLAY- i can see a world where he scores a goal today but not willing to play a line that is about 70 pts higher or so. There are better bets going around today.
Gaff NO PLAY- I dont see him scoring a goal today, despite him playing well against Hawks in the past.
Waterman NO PLAY- he has won me coin in the pass but this line is about 40-45 too high I feel.
West NO PLAY- not really a great ceiling for a player like him.
Petruccelle OVER 35- Ill have a go on him today. A goal probably sees him land somewhere in the middle or overs today. Ive got him banked for a goal.
Sheed OVER 69- Its a play based on averages, I dont have him scoring a goal today but at that line Ill have a play.
Bailey Williams UNDER 26- the numbers suggest the under is the play. Only gone above 32 on the stat multiplier in 2 of his last 32 games. I dont see him scoring a goal today. West Coast arent known for their quality in rucking department, I feel Like Lloyd Meek might have a good game today.
Last edited:
No lewis?
JonezTiges
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Bramble 25+
Breust, Butler 2
Brockman 1
@ $51.00 (365).
Breust, Butler 2
Brockman 1
@ $51.00 (365).
- Oct 6, 2011
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Ok a few on here are on Butler for goals and that will do me. Ill add him to my staple on the Overs for the Stat Multiplier.
So lock in the OVER 45 on him there.
Will use that in the Final P & L of the Hawks v Eagles along with those other tips.
Sometimes the games with limited data you have to make 'gut call ' bets and this is a 'gut based bet' , no more , no less.
You would imagine the ball would have to live in the Hawks forward 50 , for this to go the over and which I can see happening.
So lock in the OVER 45 on him there.
Will use that in the Final P & L of the Hawks v Eagles along with those other tips.
Sometimes the games with limited data you have to make 'gut call ' bets and this is a 'gut based bet' , no more , no less.
You would imagine the ball would have to live in the Hawks forward 50 , for this to go the over and which I can see happening.
- Jan 21, 2013
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at a loss
Jai Newcombe
To Get 20 or More Disposals
Will Day
To Get 25 or More Disposals
Tim Kelly
To Get 25 or More Disposals
Jacob Koschitzke
To Score 2 or More Goals
Luke Breust
To Score 2 or More Goals
Jack Petruccelle
Any Time Goal Scorer
Tyler Brockman
Any Time Goal Scorer
@25
Jai Newcombe
To Get 20 or More Disposals
Will Day
To Get 25 or More Disposals
Tim Kelly
To Get 25 or More Disposals
Jacob Koschitzke
To Score 2 or More Goals
Luke Breust
To Score 2 or More Goals
Jack Petruccelle
Any Time Goal Scorer
Tyler Brockman
Any Time Goal Scorer
@25
9/15 of 3+ last year, 5/15 of 4+. Working his way into fitness this year in 3 decent losses - today against no McGov/Barrass/H.Edwards (their 3rd tall) he should have a bag in him.
$4.25 for 4 seems value on that basis
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
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Brockman 2 to 5
Butler 2 to 4.
Butler 2 to 4.
lol tailing the same
brockman 2-5 2.8/7/20/81
butler 2-4 3.10/7.5/28
brockman 2-5 2.8/7/20/81
butler 2-4 3.10/7.5/28
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
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Thats a good sign, we must be thinking on the same page?
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