AFL 2023 - AFL Round 12

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AFL Stat Multiplier Spreads for Giants v Richmond. Trends based on past 3 years for players. A few reasoning behind of each of the plays.

View attachment 1704223
$1 Stakes

Brent Daniels UNDER 107- this is about 45 points too high. Had a good game last week but 2 goals still should be able to see profit on this selection. I dont also recall him from the past being in the triple digit line.

Callan Ward OVER 48- Have him pencilled in for a goal today, and his averages from last 3 seasons suggets an over is a solid play.

Shai Bolton UNDER 214- To keep it simple , he goes under this line in 45 of his last 54 games. He also averages 142.12 in the stat multiplier in last 3 seasons.

Graham OVER 38- Can oblige with a goal and with a low line.

$0.75 Stakes

Coniglio OVER 97- I feel this is a better selection than taking him on for a goal at $2.50 or thereabouts with sportsbooks. A goal will cover his 97 line based on stats.

$0.50 Stakes

Tom Green OVER 92- Tom Green plays better in home fixtures than away fixtures. Home fixtures= Showgrounds/Manuka Oval/Sydney Olympic Stadium (Accor Stadium). Some interesting stats, in the last 55 AFL games: Tom Green has 16 goals from 24 home games. And at the same time, Tom Green has 6 goals from 31 away games. So he clearly is a player that prefers home surroundings. And I missed out on the week he got 1071 in his Stat Multiplier down at Manuka. Lets go against the trend and back him in for a goal today.


Note Graham- has changed to 41 line now at the time of writing, which Ill use in my final P & L.

Result of the Stat Multiplier (Goals x Kicks x Handballs) Tips using $0.50, $0.75 and $1 stakes.

$1 Stakes

Brent Daniels UNDER 107=+$107


Callan Ward OVER 48=+$192

Shai Bolton UNDER 214=+$88


Graham OVER 41=-$21

$0.75 Stakes

Coniglio OVER 97=-$72.75

$0.50 Stakes

Tom Green OVER 92=-$46


Overall Net Profit and Loss for the Stat Multiplier for Giants v Tigers= +$247.25




Still down for the 2 matches overall this round but made some recovery today match.
 
no essendon goals in that quarter - get your ShiP together essendon!
Like A Boss Ship GIF
 

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Langford 3+ goals, 6+ marks $5.30 (BYO Sportsbet)

He's done this 3/11 matches this year.

The combo is ~ double the straight up 3+ goals odds of $2.70 despite hitting the marks hurdle in 8/11 matches and each time he's kicked 3+.

So you're getting value on the combo (vs individual legs), even before you account for the fact the two legs are highly correlated.
Thanks for this
 

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AFL 2023 - AFL Round 12

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