AFL 2023 - AFL Round 16

[balmainforever]

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Sinclair 2+ goals @ 11.50 SB. Surely gets multiple opportunities against that rabble.

Crouch for 1 goal @ 4.10 seems good value too on Betr.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Eagles getting anyone back who may actually help lol? Hurn must be close

 

[bulletride]

Eagles getting anyone back who may actually help lol? Hurn must be close

Potentially Hurn and Cripps but they're also losing Yeo, SPS and Jack Williams from last weeks side.

 

[Nuggetz]

Heeney looks to be fit

Surely after conceding 200pts the eagles will show a bit more defensive resolve. Make it a scrapy game. Hoping line blows out more once teams are announced

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Sinclair 2+ goals @ 11.50 SB. Surely gets multiple opportunities against that rabble.

Crouch for 1 goal @ 4.10 seems good value too on Betr.

Like a Marshall play in that game too, King should kick 7+ against them. Marshall might be the one where he's strategically rested forward a bit in this game.

 

[Mags98]

taking the aints at the line for QTR1 and 4 @ $4 boosted

 

[NYRB]

Been playing around with a a Multiple Regression Model in R Studio in the last day or so, and it seems to me judging from 2022 data, that there is some sort of significant relationship between Marks and Scoring at the Docklands. Ive included Tackles as another independent variable just to see if tackle count has an affect on scoring, and sort of purports my view that it doesnt affect the scoring but marks do. The p-values associated of 0.0012 in 2022 and 0.000631 shows that for me, scoring and marks has some sort of relationship.

Attached is 2022 and 2023 season data, which looks into who much of an impact scoring has on marks.

For 2022 matches:




For 2023 matches:






I think its something to consider if betting on other props especially at the Docklands. The Bulldogs v Fremantle game had a combined 230 marks between both sides last year at the same venue.

 

[NYRB]

You wouldnt think Tackle count in a match has an affect on scoring but from that analysis above, I say tackles had an affect on scoring in 2022 but not so in 2023 at the Docklands.

 

[sohohoho]

you may need to dumb this down for bigfooty.

I think outside of weather affected games and players gaining midfield time which they previously have not had (including back up rucks now solo) is the only worthwhile plays in these tackles prices, tackles are extremely random also.

Marks a pure match up play

 

[NYRB]

you may need to dumb this down for bigfooty.

I think outside of weather affected games and players gaining midfield time which they previously have not had (including back up rucks now solo) is the only worthwhile plays in these tackles prices, tackles are extremely random also.

Marks a pure match up play

Well to put it in simpler words and for regular readers on here.


Higher marks, lower scoring at the Docklands

Lower marks, higher scoring at the Docklands

Its just some analysis Ive been playing around with and noticing the style of game is a different game that is being played there compared to as recent as probably 5 years ago.

 

[sohohoho]

this makes plenty of sense, St Kilda a massive outlier with it this year too.
The more marks the slower the tempo of the game likely and also means more time taken off the clock.

 

[based]

id also take a stab and say most marks are taken in backlines so more marks in the game means less forward entries etc

 

[Long Shot Louie]

Public service anouncement:

After the corruption affected match between the Pies and Crows last week, The LONG SHOT LOUIE LOCK OF THE WEEK(currently up 164.2 units on the year) is in the ashes cricket thread.

Thankyou.

 

[gillon]

Miers 2+ $10.50 @ SB

Can’t pass it up at this price, Cameron out will hopefully open up more avenues to scoring

 

[Hava Alle]

Sportsbet free hits back for Thursday and Friday games this week.

 

[Atavistic]

Sportsbet free hits back for Thursday and Friday games this week.

Since it's a free hit:

Hipwood 3, Bolton, Cameron 2, Rayner, Martin, Taranto, Bailey AGS, Taranto 30+ disp, Bolton 20+ disp 1U@84

 

[HTPunter]

SB free hit for me

Charlie 5
Hipwood 2
Clarke AGS
Dusty 25
Dunkley 25
Wilmot 15

$111

 

[fpm84]

My free hit bet:

Brisbane H2H
Taranto most disposals Gr1
Cotchin 15+
Charlie 2+
Hipwood, Bailey, Bolton AGS
50 @10

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Pickett back in NT. Kicked 6 last time in Darwin from memory. This time in the Alice.

Backing 3,4,5,6 @ SB best odds. SGM gives you better odds. Thought odds would be longer but have probably already come in?

 

[Mags98]

bet-sniper.com is up guys, good way to see odds across the bookies

 

[X_box_X]

you may need to dumb this down for bigfooty.

I think outside of weather affected games and players gaining midfield time which they previously have not had (including back up rucks now solo) is the only worthwhile plays in these tackles prices, tackles are extremely random also.

Marks a pure match up play

I like this bet.

Tailing.

 

[dontlimitme]

tangolikelama fire up with a multi tonight campaigner

 

[jikost]

Pickett back in NT. Kicked 6 last time in Darwin from memory. This time in the Alice.

Backing 3,4,5,6 @ SB best odds. SGM gives you better odds. Thought odds would be longer but have probably already come in?

Not saying he won't kick a few, but Kozzie loves the heat and it was a warm, sunny 25 degree day in Darwin when he kicked those 6 goals. Forecast for Alice on Sunday is a freezing cold and showery 8 degrees.

 

[Atavistic]

Pickett back in NT. Kicked 6 last time in Darwin from memory. This time in the Alice.

Backing 3,4,5,6 @ SB best odds. SGM gives you better odds. Thought odds would be longer but have probably already come in?

No, I think the odds started at 71 for 6 goals. Don't think they've changed much, if at all.

 

[Atavistic]

Not saying he won't kick a few, but Kozzie loves the heat and it was a warm, sunny 25 degree day in Darwin when he kicked those 6 goals. Forecast for Alice on Sunday is a freezing cold and showery 8 degrees.

I think that game was in Alice too. But it was warm and dry.