AFL 2023 - AFL Round 2

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[LicoriceAllsorts]

 

[HTPunter]

I was so so confident in Brisbane & Freo. Also had reasonable confidence Adelaide & Suns were value, although also thought that I might be going a bit early on those 2 sides.

So this week I’m confident in Bulldogs flogging Saints, Swans flogging Hawthorn, and Pies beating Port.

So Saints +, Hawks +, and Port ML it is

 

[dontlimitme]

pies port day game should be a cracker

 

[Veer Right]

Demons H2H - Look better at present
Tigers H2H - long vs short break. Crows coming off playing in 38 degree heat
Swans -39.5 line - Hawks want to win the Harley Reid Cup

5.50 odds

 

[Johanpetro]

Lachie Cowan 15+ touches at $7.25 worth a crack? Had 7 at half time before getting injured

 

[Jatz]

Not even sure he'll be named yet.

 

[Johanpetro]

Not even sure he'll be named yet.

$2.90 on SportsBet could be a quick cashout job

 

[Jatz]

$2.90 on SportsBet could be a quick cashout job

Where'd you find the $7.25?

 

[Johanpetro]

Where'd you find the $7.25?

365

 

[sohohoho]

Demons H2H - long vs short break and they look better at present

Demons played after Lions? what you on about.

Also longer breaks show no statistical significance

 

[Veer Right]

Demons played after Lions? what you on about.

Also longer breaks show no statistical significance

Yep.

Disagree.

 

[mookieb]

Demons played after Lions? what you on about.

Also longer breaks show no statistical significance

I think 1 day is shown to be insignificant but 2 days or more has an impact which is just common sense. 3 days for Tigers should mean something especially after the conditions the Crows played in.

 

[Veer Right]

I think 1 day is shown to be insignificant but 2 days or more has an impact which is just common sense. 3 days for Tigers should mean something especially after the conditions the Crows played in.

Without paying much attention to it i recall a number of teams over the years play poorly from a short turnaround off hot and/or humid conditions. Interesting to see how the crows backup.

 

[targett]

Demons played after Lions? what you on about.

Also longer breaks show no statistical significance

FWIW a study was done on this a couple of years ago, And the results for 4818 games , teams who played on the disadvantage off a smaller break: 2353 wins, 2412 losses, 53 draws. Or to put it another way, they won 49.3% of matches that weren’t draws.

At first glance that might suggest teams coming in off the shorter break were a little more likely to lose, albeit only a very little.

But think of it this way: if you tossed a coin 5000 times, would you expect to record exactly 2500 heads and 2500 tails? Unlikely.

How do we then determine the significance of a result like this?

In statistics, a concept called the binomial distribution is used to estimate probability in a situation like this. And to tell a long story short: these numbers are not statistically significant.

Even Considering another possibility: perhaps the short break doesn’t have an impact on teams when they get to play at home, but might have an impact when they need to travel interstate.

The numbers don’t support that theory either. Travelling teams get the win about 36.8% of the time, travelling teams who are also coming off a shorter break than their opponents run at 36.9%. You can tell for yourself that’s not a significant difference.

We can say with a degree of confidence that playing off a shorter break than your opponent doesn’t really seem to impact your chances of winning .

 

[targett]

Saints 15.5 1.90 BetR

 

[mookieb]

FWIW a study was done on this a couple of years ago, And the results for 4818 games , teams who played on the disadvantage off a smaller break: 2353 wins, 2412 losses, 53 draws. Or to put it another way, they won 49.3% of matches that weren’t draws.

At first glance that might suggest teams coming in off the shorter break were a little more likely to lose, albeit only a very little.

But think of it this way: if you tossed a coin 5000 times, would you expect to record exactly 2500 heads and 2500 tails? Unlikely.

How do we then determine the significance of a result like this?

In statistics, a concept called the binomial distribution is used to estimate probability in a situation like this. And to tell a long story short: these numbers are not statistically significant.

Even Considering another possibility: perhaps the short break doesn’t have an impact on teams when they get to play at home, but might have an impact when they need to travel interstate.

The numbers don’t support that theory either. Travelling teams get the win about 36.8% of the time, travelling teams who are also coming off a shorter break than their opponents run at 36.9%. You can tell for yourself that’s not a significant difference.

We can say with a degree of confidence that playing off a shorter break than your opponent doesn’t really seem to impact your chances of winning .

I'm not sure the analysis of the results proves anything unless they went into detail.

8 day break vs 7 days isn't the same as say as a 7 day break vs 5 days.

Teams have a week off don't often perform against teams that don't.

In this case Ade with 6 days off early in the season might recover fully even though it was very hot and they travelled. Or they might not..

 

[targett]

I'm not sure the analysis of the results proves anything unless they went into detail.

8 day break vs 7 days isn't the same as say as a 7 day break vs 5 days.

Teams have a week off don't often perform against teams that don't.

In this case Ade with 6 days off early in the season might recover fully even though it was very hot and they travelled. Or they might not..

That Analysis is 1-4 day break , off the bye is another count

 

[targett]

I'm not sure the analysis of the results proves anything unless they went into detail.

8 day break vs 7 days isn't the same as say as a 7 day break vs 5 days.

Teams have a week off don't often perform against teams that don't.

In this case Ade with 6 days off early in the season might recover fully even though it was very hot and they travelled. Or they might not..

So we can say with a degree of confidence that playing off a shorter break than your opponent doesn’t really seem to impact your chances of winning an AFL match. But what if we narrow our view to those matches where the difference between breaks is a bit larger?

Matches where one team comes in off a bye and the other doesn’t, or to be exact, where the difference between breaks is at least five days.

There isn’t a significant trend in matches like this over the whole breadth of VFL/AFL history, but in the last ten years, where they’ve become much more common than in the past, there is. When a team is coming off a bye and plays a team that isn’t, they only win 43% of the time.

Geelong fans are famously familiar with this. The club has gone 1-8 in such matches since 2011. GWS are the only club with a worse record at 1-9, while Gold Coast round out the podium at 1-7.

Not all teams are so badly affected. Hawthorn have gone 7-0 in these matches, putting them head and shoulders above the rest. Melbourne at 4-2, and West Coast at 5-3 are the next best.

The numbers both historical and modern suggest going into a match on a shorter break than your opponent doesn’t make you any less likely to win.
If anything, when it comes to matches with a significantly big difference between the respective teams’ breaks, the team that’s played more recently may well be at an advantage – though this is a trend that only holds true over the last decade or so.

 

[Johanpetro]

Enough with these stats and analysis nerds. What backman is gonna play forward and kick 3 goals at $450 odds.

 

[targett]

Enough with these stats and analysis nerds. What backman is gonna play forward and kick 3 goals at $450 odds.

Tony Lockett

 

[Atavistic]

Enough with these stats and analysis nerds. What backman is gonna play forward and kick 3 goals at $450 odds.

Jeremy Cameron's partner is going to time her birth to coincide with Geelong's next match. Ratugolea will swing forward and kick 3.

 

[kicksome]

$2.90 on SportsBet could be a quick cashout job

ive chucked some on it in hope of the cash out job

 

[mookieb]

So we can say with a degree of confidence that playing off a shorter break than your opponent doesn’t really seem to impact your chances of winning an AFL match. But what if we narrow our view to those matches where the difference between breaks is a bit larger?

Matches where one team comes in off a bye and the other doesn’t, or to be exact, where the difference between breaks is at least five days.

There isn’t a significant trend in matches like this over the whole breadth of VFL/AFL history, but in the last ten years, where they’ve become much more common than in the past, there is. When a team is coming off a bye and plays a team that isn’t, they only win 43% of the time.

Geelong fans are famously familiar with this. The club has gone 1-8 in such matches since 2011. GWS are the only club with a worse record at 1-9, while Gold Coast round out the podium at 1-7.

Not all teams are so badly affected. Hawthorn have gone 7-0 in these matches, putting them head and shoulders above the rest. Melbourne at 4-2, and West Coast at 5-3 are the next best.

The numbers both historical and modern suggest going into a match on a shorter break than your opponent doesn’t make you any less likely to win.
If anything, when it comes to matches with a significantly big difference between the respective teams’ breaks, the team that’s played more recently may well be at an advantage – though this is a trend that only holds true over the last decade or so.

Do you have the stats for 7 days break vs 5 days?

 

[Bucking Bronco]

You need stats for 6 day break vs 9 day break, with the 6 day break team playing in 35 degree heat, otherwise the data is close to meaningless.

There is only ever room to gain a slight edge in gambling, you need precision.

Using data that involves 7 day break vs 6 day break with the 6 day break team playing in 18 degree conditions is largely meaningless in the context of this weekend's game.