AFL 2023 - AFL Round 2

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Geelong will obviously be around the mark at the end of the year but I think they are gettable right now and I expect Carlton to win tonight at decent odds. Cats midfield looks a bit thin without Duncan and Selwood, no Stewart is a big loss and Hawkins wasn’t moving too well last week and will match up on Weitering who is one of the only players with the size and strength to nullify him. Carlton look stronger all over the park at this particular point of time to my eyes.
 
HTPunter said:
Ollie Henry train - should have had the Moore run down tackle too last week. Hawkins and Cameron get Weitering and Young, he gets McGovern who can play a bit like a headless chook?

Henry all SB
2 - 2.50
3 - 7.25
4 - 23
Click to expand...

I like the Henry Train.

0.5u each 4+ 5+ $21 $81 tab

I'm surprised Carlton are out to $2.30, I would have had them slight favourites.

Geelong's backline is seriously stretched and their midfield failed to fire last week.
 

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targett said:
Zac Fisher had a poor game last week 7 disp, 15+ last year 20/22 . Happy to punt $1.80 for 15+ at pb for him to bounce back against the Cats .
Click to expand...
Might get more centre bounce attendances with Hewett out and a small forward replacing him as well.
 
Carlton have replaced an injured midfielder with a forward.

Not sure who picks up the centre bounce tab.

Talk on the Carlton board is that the coaches are planning to run Geelong off their feet with a mosquito fleet of small forwards.

Best odds available are for Motlop, who got most of his possession on the wing/hb area of the field last week.

He only had two touches inside 50, which makes betting on him this week risky, perhaps even foolhardy.

.5u each 3+ 4+ $23 $81 pb
 
Apologise if someone has already mentioned him.

My dart throw is M. Kennedy picking up more disposals with Walsh and Hewett out.
Last season he went 33, 31, 30 the first three rounds with Walsh out in Round 1 and Cerra out Round 2.

Why is it a dart throw?
Had a decline for the rest of the season (a few games did hit 27)
Also doesn't get alot of TOG.


30+ - $5 (TAB)

Multi:
Carlton h2h
J. Bowes 20+
E. Curnow 20+
M. Kennedy 30+
J. Motlop AGS
G. Rohan 2+
$199 (SB)

On SM-S906E using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
mouncey2franklin said:
Carlton have replaced an injured midfielder with a forward.

Not sure who picks up the centre bounce tab.

Talk on the Carlton board is that the coaches are planning to run Geelong off their feet with a mosquito fleet of small forwards.

Best odds available are for Motlop, who got most of his possession on the wing/hb area of the field last week.

He only had two touches inside 50, which makes betting on him this week risky, perhaps even foolhardy.

.5u each 3+ 4+ $23 $81 pb
Click to expand...
Ed Curnow goes into the mids with a bigger role. Led their CBAs in last quarter last week. Fisher a little more too
 
im not seeing a hell of a lot of value tonight. Games between these 2 are usually low scoring, and what carlton threw up last week hasnt inspired me much. I'm having a go at this fella, he kicked a goal last week, and the last 2 times hes played carlton hes kicked 2.0 and 1.2. Fingers crossed

Max Holmes
2+ $12
3+ $51

pointsbet
 
HTPunter said:
Ollie Henry train - should have had the Moore run down tackle too last week.
Click to expand...
Would have been more funny, if I didnt have money on him last week.

Henry looked like he was running straight into the grandstand, it was bizarre the way he was tackled by Moore as he should have kicked the goal, well before that.

I backed him for 3+ paying $8.



x.png
 
Dont mind the SGM:

30+ Disposals Cripps
20+ Disposals Saad
3+ Charlie Curnow Goals

$9.60


Curnow was the best forward last week against for Carlton with 3 goals. He also kicked 3 against the Cats last year Cripps was warming up last with 25 disposals and Saad too got 18 last week. 30 and 20 are very fair numbers to crack here. As, mentioned by other forum member, Geelong losing Selwood this year hurts them a bit. Personally think it could be a high disposal game with alot disposals. (These teams were ranked 1st and 4th for AFL Fantasy in 2022 average per game). Selwood and Sam Walsh last year polled Brownlow votes in this game and Im seeing it as a game someone has to step up in the middle for contested possessions.

Against Victorian rivals at the MCG last year, Carltons totals were: 177, 147, 154, 134, 147,140, 153, 149. Thats quite surpisingly low, given Charlie Curnow won Coleman last year. Also Round 1 last week maybe a footprint in how the Blues will play against other Vic clubs this season.

With both teams yet to win a game yet, I sense it would be a slower style game where the team leading will look to keep possession of the ball and dictate the pace of play.



Ill do my own parlay, involving the new Geelong boys Bowes and Bruhn. Bruhn came from a style of team , the Giants, where they tended to play slow in 2022, so I think he can play a similar style to Tom Stewart tonight. Bowes is more of an outsider player, he is similar to a Charlie Ballard, they tended to get alot of uncontensted possession. I have also found Bowes to be good by foot. Also Newman and Zac Fisher all cleared these disposals line last year.


Bruhn 20+ Disposals
Bowes 20+ Disposals
Newman 20+ Disposals
Fisher 20+ Disposals
Under 167.5 Points

Odds: $76.25 (TAB Boosted)


Ive tailed this at SB at a price of 161 for a bit of a giggle

md20 said:
Multi:
Carlton h2h
J. Bowes 20+
E. Curnow 20+
M. Kennedy 30+
J. Motlop AGS
G. Rohan 2+
$199 (SB)

On SM-S906E using BigFooty.com mobile app
Click to expand...
 
GROTTO said:
Would have been more funny, if I didnt have money on him last week.

Henry looked like he was running straight into the grandstand, it was bizarre the way he was tackled by Moore as he should have kicked the goal, well before that.

I backed him for 3+ paying $8.



View attachment 1636959
Click to expand...
Thought it was under 12s and he could gloat. Bitch move
 

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And one more Same Game parlay for Blues v Cats tonight

Blake Acres 25+ Disposals
Bruhn 4+ Marks

at $17 (TAB)

Acres polled a Brownlow vote last year against the Cats and was highly influential in the Dockers win there at Kardinia Park last year. And feel like Geelong game style might be a bit more conservative than last years grand final. Bruhn also managed 4 marks in their game last year.

At those odds im happy to take a play at that given both players cleared those lines in their fixtures for their old clubs in 2022.
 
Carlton h2h
Docherty 25+
Kennedy 25+
Fisher 15+
McKay 2
Stengle 2
Rohan
Cripps
Martin
$135 boosted neds

Hail mary to start the round, odds are $71 on TAB and $67 sportsbet so there’s some value
 
not sure if its already been mentioned but Ollie Henry has a power play on him that boosts his odds for 3 from @7.25 t0 10.44 he is my first train of the night

2,3,4 @2.80, 10.44, 23 im tempting if i go 5 or not, the old carlton sucked at defending medium sized forwards but thats when lachie plowman use to play aha
 
PATRICK CRIPPS 20+@$2.80 B365
 

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AFL 2023 - AFL Round 2

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