AFL 2023 - AFL Round 22

[balmainforever]

 

[LongBombFromOutside50]

Can’t believe Collingwood isn’t shorter in the market tomorrow. Daicos injury seems a massive overreaction

Thought the Pies would come up 1.4-1.5

Geelongs 22 man lineup looks very ordinary on paper

Backing a team who can still lose the game and finish on top of the ladder against a hungry side in a must win game doesn’t seem sharp to me.

Especially if you’re getting them at less than even money.

 

[Jugada]

Backing a team who can still lose the game and finish on top of the ladder against a hungry side in a must win game doesn’t seem sharp to me.

Especially if you’re getting them at less than even money.

On the flip side backing teams clear on top of the ladder vs teams outside the 8 at almost evens at home probably a profitable long term strategy

 

[demon_fanatic]

Pies were also average vs carlton but, odds seem ok to me

 

[LongBombFromOutside50]

On the flip side backing teams clear on top of the ladder vs teams outside the 8 at almost evens at home probably a profitable long term strategy

Would completely agree under normal circumstances but motivation is a big part of the game.

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Backing a team who can still lose the game and finish on top of the ladder against a hungry side in a must win game doesn’t seem sharp to me.

Especially if you’re getting them at less than even money.

Who says Collingwood won't be hungry tonight to prove that their system still stacks up after being written off by half the media.

Even a half-motivated premiership contender will easily handle a motivated run of the mill team the vast majority of the time.

 

[BloodRet]

Daicos and Sidebottom are massive outs. There’s nothing to prove that Collingwood measure up without Daicos in the side. Price is right IMO. If Hawkins was playing I’d be loading on Geelong.

 

[sohohoho]

Was like 1.40 vs 3 pre last week. Does seem a massive overreaction to one player out and one poor match

its not just one poor match, they've been average for weeks and its finally showing in the results.

Cats hardly flying though, had it -6 Pies.

 

[Mazza1234678]

its not just one poor match, they've been average for weeks and its finally showing in the results.

Cats hardly flying though, had it -6 Pies.

That’s more my point

The Cats are going probably worse than the Pies also

Fall in against a half strength Port side at home and Freo rolled them at home

 

[demon_fanatic]

I think Adams without Daicos gets more mid time tonight, he's always thrown in when there's big games and they need to fix their contested ball.. also think Crisp/Lipinski/de goey will hit the scoreboard from the middle to help the forwards who aren't scoring as much

 

[LongBombFromOutside50]

Who says Collingwood won't be hungry tonight to prove that their system still stacks up after being written off by half the media.

Even a half-motivated premiership contender will easily handle a motivated run of the mill team the vast majority of the time.

Disagree with your last sentence, but good luck if you’re on the pies.

That doesn’t mean I’m on the Cats btw. It’s a no bet for me.

 

[eastaugh36]

Big bet on North to win and also at the line as cover. This is the typical game Essendon lose.

 

[BloodRet]

For fun
Mihocek 1q
Rohan 1q
Hill 2q
Henry 2q
Elliot 3q
J Cameron 4q
@301

 

[demon_fanatic]

Big bet on North to win and also at the line as cover. This is the typical game Essendon lose.

yeh with cunners last game i'd normally say yes but Essendon got that scare and wake up call last week and will be up for this, likely to be decided final round vs pies.. the gulf in talent will tell here but yeh I think the line's about right they've definately wound north in based on cunningtons last game etc

 

[demon_fanatic]

I think Hawks win vs Pies won't be a flash in pan now and they'll finish this seasons with good signs especially in the true home games vs dogs and freo.. 13.5 start and close to 3.00 odds betfair at a ground they love in Tassie looks good as their strength is in the middle so they can potentially breakeven with the dogs here.. yes Dogs have finals to play for but also a slightly weakened team this week with JJ out and hawks regain Amon.. i'd rather just play hawks outright I feel here... I do believe Mcguiness will actually go libba here not Bont. and they'll rely on Nash/Newcombe to stop Bont streaming out of middle... as Libba is often the source that feeds it out to start the scoring chains

 

[Fizza]

For fun
Mihocek 1q
Rohan 1q
Hill 2q
Henry 2q
Elliot 3q
J Cameron 4q
@301

Tailed for the hope, imagine all legs are good and Jeremy kicks goal with seconds left

 

[dontlimitme]

For fun
Mihocek 1q
Rohan 1q
Hill 2q
Henry 2q
Elliot 3q
J Cameron 4q
@301

tailed the great dalai degeneret

 

[dontlimitme]

free hit tonight

20+ Josh daicos

7

Josh Daicos

Age

25

Ht

178cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.6

4star

K

8.3

3star

HB

7.3

5star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.6

5star

CL

1.3

3star

D

16.2

4star

K

9.2

4star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.5

4star

CL

1.5

4star

D

13.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

4.2

5star

CL

1.2

4star

/crisp/de goey
15+ adams
2g+ elliot/jezza
1g+ mcstay, mihochek, stengle, henry

SB 12.75

 

[dontlimitme]

For fun
Mihocek 1q
Rohan 1q
Hill 2q
Henry 2q
Elliot 3q
J Cameron 4q
@301

also done 1st half Mihocek/rohan/henry/hill 2nd half elliot/jez @ 22.50 SB

 

[toenail11]

free hit tonight

20+ Josh daicos/crisp/de goey
15+ adams
2g+ elliot/jezza
1g+ mcstay, mihochek, stengle, henry

SB 12.75

Love that , tailed

 

[BloodRet]

free hit tonight

20+ Josh daicos/crisp/de goey
15+ adams
2g+ elliot/jezza
1g+ mcstay, mihochek, stengle, henry

SB 12.75

Love it too tailed

 

[bulletride]

McStay 2
Elliott 2
Hill
Henry 2
Neale
Close
$25.25 SB free swing

Crisp
Smith
Miers
Dangerfield
$41.28 PB free swing

Shannon Neale 2-4 $4.10/$13/$60 SB. Cats going for a much more logical Hawkins replacement this week, has been kicking goals consistently in the VFL with 3.4, 3.1, 2.2, 2.1, 3.0 and 1.2 in his 6 games since returning.

PB stat multipliers
Crisp over 52 - Hopefully gets a bit of a possession bump with the expected increase in CBAs this week. Usually has an even kick to handball ratio so just need to hope he can hit the scoreboard for a nice return. Had 195 in his previous game with > 50% CBAs in round 13.

Smith over 44 - I'll probably play a line this low every game now that he's announced his retirement. Loves a goal at the best of times and easily capable of kicking multiples on his day eg. his GF day performance last year which would have been a 621 point game.

 

[Hawkthorn33]

Good luck fellow Degens, get on:

Crisp 20
Atkins 20
Henry 2g

@ 4.16 with Neds

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

McStay 2
Elliott 2
Hill
Henry 2
Neale
Close
$25.25 SB free swing

Crisp
Smith
Miers
Dangerfield
$41.28 PB free swing

Shannon Neale 2-4 $4.10/$13/$60 SB. Cats going for a much more logical Hawkins replacement this week, has been kicking goals consistently in the VFL with 3.4, 3.1, 2.2, 2.1, 3.0 and 1.2 in his 6 games since returning.

PB stat multipliers
Crisp over 52 - Hopefully gets a bit of a possession bump with the expected increase in CBAs this week. Usually has an even kick to handball ratio so just need to hope he can hit the scoreboard for a nice return. Had 195 in his previous game with > 50% CBAs in round 13.

Smith over 44 - I'll probably play a line this low every game now that he's announced his retirement. Loves a goal at the best of times and easily capable of kicking multiples on his day eg. his GF day performance last year which would have been a 621 point game.

Neale would be in to replace Jack Henry. Ollie should have kicked a bag last week so will be on him

3,4,5,6 @ 3.80,9,28,83 SB

 

[Atavistic]

SB free swing:

Henry 3,McStay, Hill, JDG, Stengle 2 @181

 

[bulletride]

Neale would be in to replace Jack Henry.

That's what I mean, they've picked an actual forward this week rather than throwing a defender up there