AFL 2023 - AFL Round 4

[balmainforever]

 

[dontlimitme]

When I saw NYRB doubt Ziebell then come full circle and complete jump on him before game time and go full degen, I knew I would have followed.

I was busy exercising at the gym. Where did that get me.

leeroy brown the original tipper went 200 -> 28k the real goat i went 50 -> 3750

 

[GROTTO]

ORAZ is Back !!!

Wait what, Long Shot Louie is Oraz ?

 

[ZionMig22]

Dees line will be 90.5 by first bounce
Eagles are decimated with injuries

 

[targett]

Wait what, Long Shot Louie is Oraz ?

 

[dontlimitme]

i dont think long shot is oraz he doesn't have the panache of the great one

 

[GROTTO]

i dont think long shot is oraz he doesn't have the panache of the great one

Oraz had a certain swagger for a degenerate, threw around 10,000 units on any team and was smart enough to cash out for a profit before the team lost.

 

[HTPunter]

Dees line will be 90.5 by first bounce
Eagles are decimated with injuries

But we already know that, can’t imagine the line will change that drastically when Jamie Cripps with a broken ankle on Monday isn’t named on Thursday - Ryan would be the only doubtful one, the rest of the injured players are obviously not playing.

 

[HTPunter]

Gunston 2 Cameron 2 Daniher 1 Rayner 1
Elliott 2 McCreery 2 Adams 1

Pies will have Elliott more of a focus, and McCreery will be used closer to goal with McStay/Johnson rotating ruck.
Rayner should get some forward time.
Lions should be well and truly in this game and expect to see a decent number of goals kicked.

For odds of $226

 

[dontlimitme]

36goal multis for the weekend for me

Amartey AGS/Ash Johnson AGS/ Lukosius AGS @ 3.02
Amartey 2+/Johnson 2+/Luko 2+ @ 23.85
Amartey 3+/Johnson 3+/Luko 3+ @ 300

luko odds look good for singles also 1.65/3.75/10/40/175 coming off 5 goals vs geelong

 

[mookieb]

Calling a bloke a mug punter because he tips against the side you happen to support is the definition of mug punter. Especially when he’s tipping a side @$2+ who have won 35 from their last 38 home games against a side that is round 3 premiers after defeating teams with a combined 2 wins from 9 games this year and is coming off a tough game in the wet and without a frontline ruckman.
This attitude is indicative of the very bath water consumption that has lead to these ridiculous odds and why the LIONS H2H@$2.05 IS THE LONG SHOT LOUIE LOCK OF THE WEEK.

10 units

I'm very keen on the Lions myself, but also reckons it's important to get the best lines as well. Typically I find better to hit favs early and underdogs late. I reckon the Lions drift out a bit more come midweek.

 

[Atavistic]

Heeney is due. He kicked four against Port last year. The degen in me is telling me to start a train.

 

[BloodRet]

Heeney is due. He kicked four against Port last year. The degen in me is telling me to start a train.

I think I’m gonna stay away from Heeney until he actually shows some form I don’t know what is wrong with him atm, seems to not be enjoying his footy as much or something maybe something is going on in his life. Hasn’t kicked 3 goals in over 10 games now and been incredibly inaccurate. I’ve been betting on him way too much for 3+ just waiting for him to do something but he is honestly playing vfl standard. Now that I don’t get on him he’ll probably kick 3+ this weekend

 

[dontlimitme]

I think I’m gonna stay away from Heeney until he actually shows some form I don’t know what is wrong with him atm, seems to not be enjoying his footy as much or something maybe something is going on in his life. Hasn’t kicked 3 goals in over 10 games now and been incredibly inaccurate. I’ve been betting on him way too much for 3+ just waiting for him to do something but he is honestly playing vfl standard. Now that I don’t get on him he’ll probably kick 3+ this weekend

amartey starting to look very capable and good odds still

 

[toenail11]

Yep Petty was a good shout last week could of been a Ziebell like miracle with his odds
I’ll go again with the less special odds 2-4 @8,29,200

Same with O Meara (to a lesser extent)
He was spending more than enough time forward
2,3 @10,41 b365

 

[BloodRet]

amartey starting to look very capable and good odds still

I’ll be following you in on that. His hands were good on the weekend and though his kicking was shit, on the scg he can roost them way better

 

[dontlimitme]

langford 2/3/4 on SB @ 4.10/12.5/46

yes please surely he goes back forward this week with zerk coming back

 

[Robo87]

langford 2/3/4 on SB @ 4.10/12.5/46

yes please surely he goes back forward this week with zerk coming back

whos fwd spot does langford steal? mezies??

 

[dontlimitme]

whos fwd spot does langford steal? mezies??

nfi but at those odds and his form the week prior im paying to find out

 

[bulletride]

langford 2/3/4 on SB @ 4.10/12.5/46

yes please surely he goes back forward this week with zerk coming back

whos fwd spot does langford steal? mezies??

Problem is Langford played down back in Round 1 even with BZT in the side, it's more an issue of having all of Weid, Stringer and Jones in the side that will keep Langford being moved around. There's also a chance Voss will debut this week after kicking bags of 5 and 4 in the VFL and he plays that similar mid sized forward role. Langford taking Heppell's spot on a wing is probably the most likely outcome.

Still tailing anyway at those odds.

 

[dontlimitme]

Still tailing anyway at those odds.

 

[X_box_X]

$2.03 for Hunter to get 20+ disposals w SB is absolutely nuts.


Now this makes for interesting reading.

Lachie Hunter at Perth Stadium:

2022 EF: 25
2021 GF: 16
2021 R15: 27
2021 R12: 27
2019 R11: 28
2019 R6: 32
2018 R18: 28

7 matches for only one below 25.

He loves the wide open ground. You'd expect Melbourne to dominate possession.

 

[X_box_X]

$2.03 for Hunter to get 20+ disposals w SB is absolutely nuts.


Now this makes for interesting reading.

Lachie Hunter at Perth Stadium:

2022 EF: 25
2021 GF: 16
2021 R15: 27
2021 R12: 27
2019 R11: 28
2019 R6: 32
2018 R18: 28

7 matches for only one below 25.

He loves the wide open ground. You'd expect Melbourne to dominate possession.

For those of you limited like me, you can get on for a lot more in a SGM...

15+ into 20+ paying $1.90. Shorter odds but still very good value.

FWIW, I've taken 20+ into a Melbourne win at $2.05.

 

[kicksome]

Ash Johnson
1.3 from 65% time on ground. Didnt watch the full game but people said he could of had more?

2+ $2.70
3+ $6
4+ $20

b365
anyone think this is worth a shout?

 

[GotGameButNoName]

Only just found this board but Oraz has to the Reddit user "HalfNattyBrah" who would hang around the punting sub. Horrid tips, radio silence when said tips would sink like a stone in a pond, the casual shrug of "eh I cashed out" the next day...
It's just funny that a random internet loser who was totally full of it would leave such a lasting impression across so many people really.

 

[burge13]

Hunter into 1.59

The degeneracy operates 24/7 and the books scramble to keep up. Got on at 2.03 so i apologise in advance for the upcoming hamstring ping on 19...