AFL 2023 - AFL Round 4

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[Leeroy Brown 15]

leeroy brown the original tipper went 200 -> 28k the real goat i went 50 -> 3750

couldnt find 4+ on the stupid 365 app as well. was paying 1001-1, would have chucked another 50 on that for sure like a true proper degen

 

[Robo87]

Ash Johnson
1.3 from 65% time on ground. Didnt watch the full game but people said he could of had more?

2+ $2.70
3+ $6
4+ $20

b365
anyone think this is worth a shout?

yea i dont mind him, should get a minimum of 3-4 scoring shots during the game again imo.

 

[bulletride]

Ash Johnson
1.3 from 65% time on ground. Didnt watch the full game but people said he could of had more?

2+ $2.70
3+ $6
4+ $20

b365
anyone think this is worth a shout?

Could end up sharing the ruck load with Mcstay while Cameron is out so I'd be wary of that.

 

[jikost]

Big O 15+ @ $2.80 365
20+ @ $10

Pies are planning on using the likes of Daniel McStay

11

Daniel Mcstay

Age

29

Ht

195cm

Wt

99kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.6

2star

K

5.3

2star

HB

3.3

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.9

4star

D

8.6

2star

K

5.3

2star

HB

3.3

2star

M

3.9

4star

T

1.0

2star

G

0.9

4star

D

8.4

3star

K

4.8

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

3.8

4star

T

1.0

3star

G

1.2

4star

, Billy Frampton

17

Billy Frampton

Age

27

Ht

201cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.1

2star

K

5.1

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

3.1

3star

T

0.7

3star

MG

99.0

2star

D

8.5

2star

K

4.8

2star

HB

3.8

3star

M

3.5

3star

T

0.5

1star

MG

99.0

2star

D

9.2

3star

K

5.6

3star

HB

3.6

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

1.0

3star

MG

107.0

2star

and Ash Johnson in the ruck Thursday night. Can see Big O just grabbing the ball out of the ruck contest with ease and slamming it on his boot. Toby Nankervis

25

Toby Nankervis

Age

30

Ht

199cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.2

4star

K

7.2

3star

HB

7.0

4star

CL

2.9

4star

HO

21.9

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

5.7

2star

HB

6.3

4star

CL

3.0

4star

HO

17.0

5star

D

7.8

2star

K

3.4

2star

HB

4.4

4star

CL

1.0

3star

HO

8.4

5star

had 16 disposals IN THE SECOND HALF last week when up against McStay in the ruck.

 

[freo_leo29]

Rankine 2 to 6 this weekend
2 starts at $1.98 and 6 is $91

 

[Robo87]

Rankine 2 to 6 this weekend
2 starts at $1.98 and 6 is $91

fogarty probably wont play this week either.

 

[freo_leo29]

fogarty probably wont play this week either.

I like Rankine or Rachele (who kicked 5 on us last time)

Rankine seems to spend more time forward tho

 

[pendlebury_10]

If he comes up, LDU has kicked a goal in his last five games (four of them he's kicked 1.1)
AGS @ $3.20 B365
2+ @ $17

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Heeney is due. He kicked four against Port last year. The degen in me is telling me to start a train.

Be careful

Looks to be carrying an ankle injury (he’s had it his whole career. Won’t be shocked if he’s not right till after the bye

 

[Its not the coach]

Rankine 2 to 6 this weekend
2 starts at $1.98 and 6 is $91

I reckon he and Thilthorpe will be scoring plenty from now on, Hopefully that forecast rain stays away Saturday

 

[Bucking Bronco]

What is your rationale behind taking teams at the line and straight up when the line is essentially an extension of head-to-head odds, meaning you are essentially double-dipping, which could lead to overexposure?

 

[Atavistic]

Van Rooyen odds at Neds are good compared to other books.

2/3/4 is 2.02/4.25/11.

 

[Jugada]

What is your rationale behind taking teams at the line and straight up when the line is essentially an extension of head-to-head odds, meaning you are essentially double-dipping, which could lead to overexposure?

Not going to be overexposed when you are putting on two half unit bets compared to a single one unit play otherwise

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Not going to be overexposed when you are putting on two half unit bets compared to a single one unit play otherwise

I see, didn't realise he split his stake.

Still curious as to what the point is of dividing the stake. Surely either the head-to-head with the longer odds is the better option, or it isn't.

 

[EFL Boy]

Players who have cleared the scoring shot mark in 100% of games they've played this year, along with odds from SB.

 

[EFL Boy]

Some potential matchup trends to exploit:

BL vs COLL
Big forwards against Brisbane thus far have gone:
Rd 1: Dixon 3.3, Marshall 4.1
Rd 2: Brown 4.0
Rd 3: Ugle-Hagan 5.0

McStay & Johnson are both:
1+ $1.26
2+ $2.35
3+ $5.50
4+ $16
5+ $51

NM vs CARL
Rd 1: Ryan 3.0
Rd 2: Frederick 1.2, Walters 2.1
Rd 3: Brockman 3.1, Greene 2.2

Motlop
1+ $1.49
2+ $3.45
3+ $9.50
4+ $34

ADEL vs FRE
Rd 2: Larkey 4.0
Rd 3: Allen 3.3, Darling 3.2

Walker
1+ $1.16
2+ $1.95
3+ 4.10
4+ $10
5+ $23
6+ $101

Rd 1: Hogan 3.1
Rd 2: Lynch 3.0, Riewoldt 2.2
Rd 3: Dixon 3.2

Amiss & Taberner
1+ $1.27
2+ $2.40
3+ $5.80
4+ $15
5+ $51

ESS vs GWS
Rd 1: Rachele 3.1, Rankine 2.5
Rd 2: Cripps 3.2, Waterman 4.2
Rd 3: Motlop 2.0, Owies 2.0

Langford
1+ $1.61
2+ $4.10
3+ $12.50
4+ $46

Rd 1: Breust 3.1
Rd 2: Ainsworth 1.2, Jeffrey 1.2
Rd 3: Butler 4.0, Higgins 4.0

Daniels
1+ $1.58
2+ $4.10
3+ $12.50
4+ $46

WC vs MEL
Rd 1: Larkey 6.0
Rd 2: Hogan 3.4
Rd 3: Amiss 2.1

Petty
1+ $1.42
2+ $3.20
3+ $9.25
4+ $29

GEEL vs HAW
Rd 1: De Goey 3.0, Hill 3.0, McReery 2.0, McInness 2.1
Rd 2: Owies 3.0
Rd 3: Lukosius 5.2

Brockman
1+ $1.55
2+ $4
3+ $12.50
4+ $46

 

[EFL Boy]

Taken a few small plays here:

Walker 2, Langford 2, Brockman 2 @ $32
Walker 4, Langford 2, Brockman 2 @ $164
Walker 6, Langford 2, Brockman 2 @ $1656
Walker 6, Langford 4, Brockman 4 @ $213,716 (lol)

 

[fpm84]

If anyone wants to board the Jeremy Cameron

5

Jeremy Cameron

Age

31

Ht

196cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.5

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

2.6

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

2.9

2star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.4

4star

G

2.0

5star

train he’s paying $5 for 6 at TAB (lol) but $15 at B365.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I reckon he and Thilthorpe will be scoring plenty from now on, Hopefully that forecast rain stays away Saturday

Unfortunately the Ranking and Thilhope trains are not as spicy this week but agree, surely Crows don't make changes. Fog can play reserves

 

[Suncraze]

UCONN/Blues/Dees ML $1.85 Lads 2u

 

[Atavistic]

Taken a few small plays here:

Walker 6, Langford 4, Brockman 4 @ $213,716 (lol)

Tailed for $1 only because it's full degen and I respect that.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Hawkins feasts on scrub teams feeling 5-7+

 

[Johanpetro]

Hawkins feasts on scrub teams feeling 5-7+

I’d be happy if Hawkins had 5 touches at this stage

 

[Jatz]

Hawkins feasts on scrub teams feeling 5-7+

He's wildly unfit at the moment. Unless they're putting it on his head, that seems unlikely at the moment.

 

[Geead]

He's wildly unfit at the moment. Unless they're putting it on his head, that seems unlikely at the moment.

I would also be weary of that, however also for some reason against the Hawks he plays like it's last game of AFL - I might have a nibble at 4, 5, 6+ later in the week.