AFL 2023 - AFL Round 4

[balmainforever]

 

[NYRB]

PointsBet Stat Multiplier , looked at data in the last 3 years. Stat Multiplier= Goals x Kicks x Handballs spreads.

Some reasoning behind the tips tonight, using $1 staking system.


View attachment 1651587

Neale OVER 76, last season his line was around the 212-248 range, so IM happy to take him here given he scored a goal last week.

Zac Bailey OVER 79, like Neale last season, he was a much higher line last season around the 139-163 range. I have him pencilled in for maybe a goal or two tonight.

Ashcroft OVER 73, the issue with him isnt possession, just weather he can convert his chances, which he should maybe get a look or 2 in front of goal.

McCluggage OVER 53, like Neale and Bailey, line last season was around the 129-151 mark before games. Its a low line to play, given his average is around 108 or so.

Hipwood OVER 41, with no proper ruck for Collingwood tonight, I sense the talls from Brisbane to get their hands on a bit more. Its a play against the averages but Im happy to go the over here.

McCarthy OVER 40, I can see him chipping in with his 2 goals tonight and doing his usually possession collection.

Tom Mitchell OVER 82, the highest of all lines here . There might be better value backing him around $3 or so for anytime goalscorer .

Adams UNDER 70, this seems a tad given he has only gone above 70 , 5 times in his past 35 matches.

The rest are NO PLAYS, although I got the feeling De Goey can score his 2 goals or so tonight, so avoided the UNDER on him despite the averages saying he is around the 112 mark.

I also sense Nick Daicos and Josh Daicos both have a goal or two combined in them tonight, so ignored that one.

All bets in the red tonight for the stat multiplier

Neale -$76
Ashcroft -$73
McCluggage -$53
Hipwood -$27
McCarthy -$40
Tom Mitchell -$82
Adams +0

Net Profit/Loss -$351

 

[Selim]

C.Cameron Theme Song: Country Roads
DLM Theme Song:

off topic but **** scarface is a goated movie

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Brisbanes coach can get And get stuffed

That’s why you don’t play Rayner in defence you goose

 

[Long Shot Louie]

Calling a bloke a mug punter because he tips against the side you happen to support is the definition of mug punter. Especially when he’s tipping a side @$2+ who have won 35 from their last 38 home games against a side that is round 3 premiers after defeating teams with a combined 2 wins from 9 games this year and is coming off a tough game in the wet and without a frontline ruckman.
This attitude is indicative of the very bath water consumption that has lead to these ridiculous odds and why the LIONS H2H@$2.05 IS THE LONG SHOT LOUIE LOCK OF THE WEEK.

10 units

A great night all topped off by this little beauty from Based DLM. Thanks brother, next thousand beers on you.
This is a Brotherhood of learned Degenerates and I love every single one of you. Means a lot after last week as well. It really is darkest before the dawn. I might have to use some of my money to dry my tears now. Good farken night lads.

 

[Robo87]

GROTTO motorbike

Grottos gone to bed I think. He's Gonna get a hell of a suprise tomorrow when he wakes up.

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

View attachment 1651970
A great night all topped off by this little beauty from Based DLM. Thanks brother, next thousand beers on you.View attachment 1651971
This is a Brotherhood of learned Degenerates and I love every single one of you. Means a lot after last week as well. It really is darkest before the dawn. I might have to use some of my money to dry my tears now. Good farken night lads.

 

[pendlebury_10]

No Jack for the Tigs means Cumberland is the man.
3+ @ $7.50 (TAB trick)
4+ @ $23
5+ @ $101

 

[Nuggetz]

Brisbanes coach can get And get stuffed

That’s why you don’t play Rayner in defence you goose

Na, he played it perfectly. Chuck Rayner in defence, let his odds drift to a ridiculous price & then move him into the forwards so the degens can cash in. You got to look at the long game

 

[Suncraze]

Early play for next week
Lions ML $1.90 TAB 2u

1.5u Jack Crisp U23.5 $1.87 Lads
Adding 1u Lions +2.5 $1.90

ABSOLUTELY SEND IT FELLAS! Get in.
How the Lions weren't favs I'll never know. Hope you all got a piece

 

[HTPunter]

Na, he played it perfectly. Chuck Rayner in defence, let his odds drift to a ridiculous price & then move him into the forwards so the degens can cash in. You got to look at the long game

Clue is in the name, Chris Fagen

The origin of the “Fa” in his name is from industrial era French, when it was pronounced “De”

So if you go back to what his name would be in its truest style, it’s Chris Degen

 

[BloodRet]

Clue is in the name, Chris Fagen

The origin of the “Fa” in his name is from industrial era French, when it was pronounced “De”

So if you go back to what his name would be in its truest style, it’s Chris Degen

l0l

 

[Nuggetz]

Clue is in the name, Chris Fagen

The origin of the “Fa” in his name is from industrial era French, when it was pronounced “De”

So if you go back to what his name would be in its truest style, it’s Chris Degen

You had me at FA, which in ancient latin translates to 'Make it Rayn-er'

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Na, he played it perfectly. Chuck Rayner in defence, let his odds drift to a ridiculous price & then move him into the forwards so the degens can cash in. You got to look at the long game

Oh trust me I’m laughing lol

 

[_ASP3X]

Only watched the first qtr - geez Rayner and Charlie went huge!!

Congrats to the guys on Rayner - those odds were insane! I didn’t take him, absolutely kicking myself now!

Going to have a crack at Sheezel for tomorrow, named HF so if he actually plays there will have a go of it.

1,2,3 @ $3, $15, $67 (PB)

 

[LukeParkerno1]

daicos at 7$ for the brownlow

Oliver chips. Seriously wins comfortably

Gawn not there for most of the year and only Trac to take votes. As good as Daicos is, half of Collingwood could take votes

 

[LukeParkerno1]

No Jack for the Tigs means Cumberland is the man.
3+ @ $7.50 (TAB trick)
4+ @ $23
5+ @ $101

Like it and have followed

 

[Robo87]

Going to have a crack at Sheezel for tomorrow, named HF so if he actually plays there will have a go of it.

1,2,3 @ $3, $15, $67 (PB)

tailing, got to at those prices, even against Carlton.

 

[StringyDog]

LDU tomorrow has kicked a goal in 6 of last 7 games, had multiple shots in 5 of last 7 games AGS@3.4 2+@21 3+@126

A.Scott, used a bit everywhere at times but named in forward pocket and with Garcia going out looks like he plays more forward this week as second small looking at the team. AGS 2.6 2+ 11 3+ 51

 

[BloodRet]

tailed sheezel for 3 w small bonus bet @67 but i think hes playing too well off hb to move him

 

[Nuggetz]

If this doesn't fire up Heeney then nothing will. Going to back him to bounce back.

15dps/3gls @8 on Tab. Cleared it a few times last year.

 

[Nuggetz]

LDU tomorrow has kicked a goal in 6 of last 7 games, had multiple shots in 5 of last 7 games AGS@3.4 2+@21 3+@126

A.Scott, used a bit everywhere at times but named in forward pocket and with Garcia going out looks like he plays more forward this week as second small looking at the team. AGS 2.6 2+ 11 3+ 51

Tailed Scott. Also went Scott 2+/Warner 2+ @71

 

[BloodRet]

If this doesn't fire up Heeney then nothing will. Going to back him to bounce back.

15dps/3gls @8 on Tab. Cleared it a few times last year.

Can't see the pics. What is it?

 

[Pacman82]

On Cheezels for 3 n 4, hopefully a tasty side for the strip sub combo I'll be forced to eat tomorrow!

 

[Nuggetz]

Can't see the pics. What is it?

Horse giving him an almighty spray

 

[BloodRet]

Horse giving him an almighty spray

FIRE UP