AFL 2023 - AFL Round 4

[balmainforever]

 

[kicksome]

Stengle 2,3,4,5

This could be the play for me
3,4,5
$3.50/$8.25/$23

I'm not betting it yet, I'm going to mull over it and see if anything else jumps out at me

 

[mac23]

Jezza 3+ snags/6+ marks
Has cleared 2/3 on goals and 3/3 on marks
$2.75 SB

Jezza 4+ snags
$3.10 SB Power Price

Danger listed FF
2+ $4.60 SB
3+ $15 SB

Also on Stengle and Rohan trains.

 

[NYRB]

2nd Multi

Jeremy Cameron

5

Jeremy Cameron

Age

31

Ht

196cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.5

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

2.6

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

2.9

2star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.4

4star

G

2.0

5star

4+ Goals
Stengle 2+ Goals
Siciliy 25+ Disposals
Frost 15+ Disposals

Odds: $21.75 SB , can get this at $26 at TAB

 

[toenail11]

Okay I’ve nearly recovered after the 3 multis that last one by one leg last night (including Fritsch for 4 ha ha ha)

On stengle, Hawkins and Rohan trains

Stengle 2
Cameron 2
Bruest
Brockman
Hawkins
@6.50

 

[ippxss]

Good luck all on the tommahawk train I won’t be touching. Bowes $4 on a goal on TAB ($1.98 on SportsBet) think he will get more mid time with Duncan back into defense

Good find

 

[NYRB]

This is a good spot for a bounce back game for Hawkins.

Hawks defence can be exposed and I think the ball will live a bit more in the Geelong forward line.

Dont think Hawks have great match up for Hawkins or Cameron.

Who can match big Tom Hawkins

26

Tom Hawkins

Age

36

Ht

197cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.2

3star

K

7.9

3star

HB

4.4

3star

M

5.5

5star

T

1.9

4star

G

2.1

5star

D

12.7

3star

K

8.6

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

5.1

5star

T

2.1

3star

G

1.6

5star

D

7.8

2star

K

5.6

3star

HB

2.2

2star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.0

3star

G

2.2

5star

for physical size? He is 105 kilograms not because he likes eating meat pies and pasties but because of his muscle. Hawkins and Cameron are 196 cm and 197 cm , far bigger in height as well, for the tallest Hawks defender listed at 194 cm.

 

[tangolikelama]

Weather is shithouse.

 

[kicksome]

Also think this game is going to be a lot closer than people think.
Geelong are a shadow of their former self at the moment. I just can't see them flicking a switch at all.
Last 2 games between the 2 I think hawks won by about 2 goals and cats by like 5 points?
Although you can also argue that the hawks have had a massive clean out and most won't argue that they will be in the bottom 4 come years end.

So I'll be nibbling at some hawks goal kickers

Ferg Greene 3,4
Moore 3,4
Brock Lesnar 2,3,4

 

[BloodRet]

Yeah Stengle 4 is my play too

 

[Long Shot Louie]

Burning some on Meek. Did kick 1.1 two games ago, so there is some small hope he gets a couple. More goals just a pipe dream at minimum bets.
1/2/3/4/5 @ 2.25/10/34/300/1000

I reckon the big boys Meek and Reeves will go forward a fair bit today with no Hawks forward listed above 187cm. No SDK for cats either so there could be a chance for them to clunk them. Pretty grim looking conditions in Melbourne but reasonably still and I reckon the rain might largely miss the game.
Loose change plays on Meek and:
Ned Reeves atg@$4.50 B365
Ned Reeves 2+@$34
Ned Reeves 3+@$$251

 

[NYRB]

My opinion but Sicily at 194 cm is more of a kick-in from behinds and running half back player rather than a 1 on 1 defender. Scrimshaw the other 194 cm is 90 kg, so gives up physicality and height to the big two key forwards of Geelong.

And if there is a bit of rain around (which I dont see on the forecast ), I guess that helps the bigger bodies.

And yes Hawkins has been not that great this season but against a bottom 6 side, if he cant fire today than I sense it could be the decline of a great player.

 

[BloodRet]

Tom Stewart - To Get 25 or More Disposals
Will Day - To Get 25 or More Disposals
Tom Hawkins - To Score 4 or More Goals
Tyson Stengle - To Score 2 or More Goals
Tyler Brockman - Any Time Goal Scorer
Brad Close -Any Time Goal Scorer

@95

 

[_ASP3X]

I normally like full degen bets, but something a bit safer...

Rhys Stanley

1

Rhys Stanley

Age

34

Ht

200cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.6

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

6.4

4star

CL

3.4

5star

HO

27.6

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

7.5

3star

HB

4.5

3star

CL

5.0

5star

HO

21.5

5star

D

11.8

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

6.4

4star

CL

3.0

5star

HO

33.0

5star

has hit 15+ possessions

2/2 this year
10/22 last two years
20/41 last three years

Just under 50%

He's rucking solo tomorrow (ignoring Blicavs) and playing against Ned Reeves who averages
Paying $2.65 SB and $2.75 on TAB.

I think both are overs.

Edit: wet ball should = more stoppages too

I like Stanley 15+.

Stanley 15+
Rohan AGS
Stengle AGS
1.5u @ $3.70

 

[freddy mercury]

I like Stanley 15+.

Stanley 15+
Rohan AGS
Stengle AGS
1.5u @ $3.70

Might tail this

 

[dontlimitme]

waiting for weather closer to game to bet on trains, that weather in the richmond dogs games turned to absolute shite

 

[Fizza]

2nd Multi

Jeremy Cameron 4+ Goals
Stengle 2+ Goals
Siciliy 25+ Disposals
Frost 15+ Disposals

Odds: $21.75 SB , can get this at $26 at TAB

Tailed

 

[dontlimitme]

weather looking great for adelaide trains next sat and sun

 

[freddy mercury]

waiting for weather closer to game to bet on trains, that weather in the richmond dogs games turned to absolute shite

Looks okay by 1520, if it rains, I'll Chuck a few units around the tackles market.

 

[BloodRet]

View attachment 1655461

weather looking great for adelaide trains next sat and sun

**** me that would ruin the whole round

 

[offtherails9]

Day train 2/3/4 TAB. Had 3 pings at goal round 1, that's enough for me.

 

[tangolikelama]

Worried that it'll be a shcoker for talls

Isaac Smith

7

Isaac Smith

Age

35

Ht

188cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

13.0

5star

HB

8.4

5star

M

5.5

5star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.7

4star

D

19.4

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

8.3

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.5

3star

CL

1.3

4star

D

19.2

5star

K

10.6

4star

HB

8.6

5star

M

7.6

5star

T

2.0

4star

CL

0.6

3star

- Any Time Goal Scorer
Tyson Stengle

18

Tyson Stengle

Age

26

Ht

175cm

Wt

71kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.3

2star

K

5.8

2star

HB

3.5

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

10.3

3star

K

5.3

2star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.3

1star

T

2.0

3star

G

0.5

4star

D

8.8

3star

K

5.6

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.6

4star

G

1.6

5star

- To Score 2 or More Goals
Tyler Brockman - To Score 2 or More Goals
Max Holmes - To Get 15 or More Disposals
Jarman Impey - To Get 15 or More Disposals
Mitch Duncan - To Get 20 or More Disposals
Jai Newcombe - To Get 20 or More Disposals

@41.50

 

[Ouchkabibbles]

Day train 2/3/4 TAB. Had 3 pings at goal round 1, that's enough for me.

Where do you see this? Looks like he’s had 2 possessions i50 total so far for 1 behind.

 

[dontlimitme]

Worried that it'll be a shcoker for talls

Isaac Smith - Any Time Goal Scorer
Tyson Stengle - To Score 2 or More Goals
Tyler Brockman - To Score 2 or More Goals
Max Holmes - To Get 15 or More Disposals
Jarman Impey - To Get 15 or More Disposals
Mitch Duncan - To Get 20 or More Disposals
Jai Newcombe - To Get 20 or More Disposals

@41.50

 

[tangolikelama]

 

[tangolikelama]

Also incase Brockman ****s me

Isaac Smith

7

Isaac Smith

Age

35

Ht

188cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

13.0

5star

HB

8.4

5star

M

5.5

5star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.7

4star

D

19.4

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

8.3

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.5

3star

CL

1.3

4star

D

19.2

5star

K

10.6

4star

HB

8.6

5star

M

7.6

5star

T

2.0

4star

CL

0.6

3star

- Any Time Goal Scorer
Tyson Stengle

18

Tyson Stengle

Age

26

Ht

175cm

Wt

71kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.3

2star

K

5.8

2star

HB

3.5

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

10.3

3star

K

5.3

2star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.3

1star

T

2.0

3star

G

0.5

4star

D

8.8

3star

K

5.6

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.6

4star

G

1.6

5star

- To Score 2 or More Goals
Max Holmes - To Get 15 or More Disposals
Jarman Impey - To Get 15 or More Disposals
Mitch Duncan - To Get 20 or More Disposals
Jai Newcombe - To Get 20 or More Disposals
Gary Rohan

23

Gary Rohan

Age

33

Ht

189cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.6

2star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.5

4star

G

1.0

4star

D

8.8

2star

K

6.0

2star

HB

2.8

2star

M

3.4

3star

T

2.3

3star

G

1.0

4star

D

9.8

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

4.2

5star

G

1.2

4star

- To Score 2 or More Goals

@23