AFL 2023 - AFL Round 4

[balmainforever]

 

[dontlimitme]

+ they need him with that sydney forward line

 

[Hellboy101]

Hellboy101 anything for the game?

Scrimshaw, Morrison and Stanley 15+
Stewart, Smith 20+
Cats win, cats line at qtr and HT
$12.50 Sportsbet

 

[freddy mercury]

Feel like the rain will stay away today fellas. My tackle multi will be on the back burner.

 

[kicksome]

The Chad comes in so I better have a go.
2+ $4
3+ $11
4+ $50 b365

Kicked 1.2 in 59% game time in round 1 in a smashing against essendon. Read pre season that Mitchel said the Chad is the fittest he's ever seen him at hawthorn.

 

[Selim]

The Chad comes in so I better have a go.
2+ $4
3+ $11
4+ $50 b365

Kicked 1.2 in 59% game time in round 1 in a smashing against essendon. Read pre season that Mitchel said the Chad is the fittest he's ever seen him at hawthorn.

is he not the sub?

 

[toenail11]

The Chad comes in so I better have a go.
2+ $4
3+ $11
4+ $50 b365

Kicked 1.2 in 59% game time in round 1 in a smashing against essendon. Read pre season that Mitchel said the Chad is the fittest he's ever seen him at hawthorn.

Yep Tailed

Also getting on Bruest

 

[Barralupo]

With Kozi out last week, Jai Newcombe spent a lot more time up forward (67%) and looked at times to be playing the key forward role leading from the square. With no KPF coming in this week, gambling on this to continue:

• Newcombe AGS 2U @$3.50 SB
• Newcome 2 goals 1U @$19 SB

 

[tangolikelama]

 

[Barralupo]

Yep Tailed

Also getting on Bruest

Chad is Sub

 

[balmainforever]

 

[kicksome]

With Kozi out last week, Jai Newcombe spent a lot more time up forward (67%) and looked at times to be playing the key forward role leading from the square. With no KPF coming in this week, gambling on this to continue:

• Newcombe AGS 2U @$3.50 SB
• Newcome 2 goals 1U @$19 SB

I was going to mention this guy. Kicked 1.1 last week and 0.1 the week before.
Tailed

 

[Selim]

Dangerfield 1,2,3 @ 1.67, 4.60, 14

Close 1,2,3 @1.65, 4.40, 14

MacDonald 1,2,3 @ 2.45, 9, 34

also tailed newcombe

 

[dontlimitme]

tailed newcombe the little nugget

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Gary Donuts and Stengle trains

2,3,4,5+

Issac Smith 2,3+

Duncan 1,2+

Greene (hawks)

2,3,4+

 

[Suncraze]

2u Tom Stewart U24.5 Disposals $1.89 Sportsbet
Should cop the tag you would think

 

[NYRB]

PointsBet Multiplier spreads for Geelong and Hawthorn. Stat Multiplier data for the last 3 years, involving Kicks x Handballs x Goals

Suggested tips using $1 staking system.



Hawkins- No PLAY. As mentioned by alot of forumites here , he is getting older and slower now. He is now shoe-in for his usual 2-3 goals these days.

Jeremy Cameron

5

Jeremy Cameron

Age

31

Ht

196cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.5

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

2.6

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

2.9

2star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.4

4star

G

2.0

5star

UNDER 235- averages 4.23 handballs a game over the last 3 years. Even if he kicks a bag of 6 goals today, it might not clear. He has only clared 274 6 times out of 40 last 3 seasons.

Duncan- NO PLAY. His average over the last 3 years suggests its too high to go over here.

Isaac Smith

7

Isaac Smith

Age

36

Ht

188cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

13.0

5star

HB

8.4

5star

M

5.5

5star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.7

4star

D

19.4

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

8.3

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.5

3star

CL

1.3

4star

D

19.2

5star

K

10.6

4star

HB

8.6

5star

M

7.6

5star

T

2.0

4star

CL

0.6

3star

OVER 72. Against his old side today and its a day game today at the MCG. We all know what happened from him in his last day game here.

Miers- NO PLAY. Can see Miers scoring a goal but with an average of 8.25 kicks a game and 7.05 handballs over the last 3 years, it suggests to me there is more to lose than gain possibly here. I dont see him scoring more than 2+ goals today.

Stengle NO PLAY. The spread is priced correctly and he could very well go on to have a big day today.

Close NO PLAY. One of my more frustrating players involving multis in the past. Its a no for me and he isn't a shoe-in for a goal today from my side.

Holmes OVER 45. Worth a play on the overs purely because of the low line. Can see him nagging a goal and hoping he can pop up with a few disposals. Was involved in some multis last week from my side involving him with 15+ Disposals, which fell short. So its a risk reward play.

Cam Guthrie - NO PLAY. I think Ive seen him more in the defence than in midfield/forward this year.

Rohan NO PLAY. Averages 6.41 kicks and 3.11 handballs last 3 years. He is below those averages this year. Even if he kicks 2 goals here, your probably not going to get a great return.

Blicavs- OVER 41. Big return and at 198 cm its a gut based play , given that Hawks line is small. Another reason I like this bet is he averages 8.47 handballs a game over the last 3 years. Hoping Scott throws him up in the forward line maybe for a spell or two.

Dangerfield NO PLAY. Although its a game I can see him snaring a few goals.

Atkins NO PLAY. 45 out of his 50 games last 3 seasons have been UNDER 21.

Dylan Moore

13

Dylan Moore

Age

25

Ht

177cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.9

3star

K

5.1

2star

HB

6.7

4star

M

4.4

4star

T

2.9

4star

G

0.3

3star

No current season stats available

D

12.2

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

5.4

5star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

NO PLAY. Can see him having a big game today but I think Cats will know his a danger and look to close him down as much as possible.

Bresut UNDER 73. Feels about 20 points too high based on averages.

AMON NO PLAY. I dont see him scoring a goal today

Mackenzie NO PLAY. Would love him to do well as he is in my AFL Fantasy team. I dont have him pencilled in for a goal today.

Newcombe OVER 38. Im going here for a goal from him , think one or two of the Hawks midfielders have to get a goal today.

Morrison NO PLAY. Dont see him scoring a goal today.

Worpel NO PLAY. Line seems about 7-8 ticks too high for me.

MacDonald- never reached triple figures on the multiplier last 3 seasons

Day UNDER 50 never reached triple figures on the multiplier last 3 seasons. Only 1 time out of 25 games last 3 seasons has he gone above 59.

Josh Ward UNDER 29 never reached triple figures on the multiplier last 3 seasons. 15 of the last 17 games he has gone UNDER 29.


Late Note: Cancelled Max Holmes OVER 45 at the time of writing as his line has moved up to 63 now.

 

[toenail11]

Chad is Sub

Roger that
Cashed it out and put it on Newcombe

 

[dontlimitme]

gl today lads

small sweat gary the rat rohan first goal

 

[Suncraze]

2u Tom Stewart U24.5 Disposals $1.89 Sportsbet
Should cop the tag you would think

Added 1u Day +0.5/U49.5 Disposals $3.30 v Stewart

 

[freo_leo29]

Tailed a bunch of these bets, basically the ones I've liked

Can we get a custom "tailed" like button for this board

Or maybe we designate the wow react as a "tailed" button

Would be handy

 

[Hellboy101]

2u Tom Stewart U24.5 Disposals $1.89 Sportsbet
Should cop the tag you would think

Sam Mitchell on Fox stated they have a plan for Tom Stewart.
Sicily over Stewart - Ward over Newcombe - Smith over Nash - Amon under 22.5
Smith over 22.5
Cats win HT and win @17-1 - 365

 

[_ASP3X]

Tailed Newcombe 1,2,3 @ $4.25, $29, $251

I don't mind that bet on Newcombe at those odds.

Danger 20+
I Smith 20+
Moore 20+
Duncan 25+
Sicily 25+
Hardwick 15+
@ $16.25

Close 2+
Brockman 2+
0.5u @ $15

Danger 2+
Breust 2+
0.5u @ $12

 

[freo_leo29]

JOM been invisible for our round 3 trains, now he's taking it too far

 

[Selim]

im on ALOT again ahah so lets pray for a good monday, good luck lads

 

[dontlimitme]

no rain so far thank god