balmainforever
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AFL 2023 - AFL Round 4
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LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
I know why it is but does anyone else find it beyond dumb there isn’t a night game tonight
Play it interstate jeez. This weird time slot is rubbish
Play it interstate jeez. This weird time slot is rubbish
Blues to be leading at halftime, either 1-12 or 13-24.
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Think North keep it close for a half
X_box_X
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English for 20+ disposals looks a solid bet. You can get around $2 with most places... You may even be able to get more than that on Betfair if you put a bid in.
24, 21, 16 to start the season.
What shouldn't be understated is the start he made to 2022 with totals of 20, 24, 24, 20 & 22 before getting injured... After five weeks off, he wasn't the same but still managed 25, 20 & 23 in those return weeks before getting injured again. Then when he returned from his second head knock, he definitely wasn't the same and that is evidenced by his remaining seven matches producing totals of only 8, 20, 11, 17, 10, 17, 15.
English is fit at the moment and he showed in his first five matches last season what he is capable of when fully fit. I still don't know how he lucked his way to a career high 25 disposals on his return from injury last season, but I guess that just highlights how he is a damaging ruckman around the ground when he is firing.
In summary, it's more likely than not that he gets 20+ tomorrow night.
TAB seems to have the best odds from what I can see, but you may wish to consider using BF to try and get a mug to take you on.
24, 21, 16 to start the season.
What shouldn't be understated is the start he made to 2022 with totals of 20, 24, 24, 20 & 22 before getting injured... After five weeks off, he wasn't the same but still managed 25, 20 & 23 in those return weeks before getting injured again. Then when he returned from his second head knock, he definitely wasn't the same and that is evidenced by his remaining seven matches producing totals of only 8, 20, 11, 17, 10, 17, 15.
English is fit at the moment and he showed in his first five matches last season what he is capable of when fully fit. I still don't know how he lucked his way to a career high 25 disposals on his return from injury last season, but I guess that just highlights how he is a damaging ruckman around the ground when he is firing.
In summary, it's more likely than not that he gets 20+ tomorrow night.
TAB seems to have the best odds from what I can see, but you may wish to consider using BF to try and get a mug to take you on.
There was the past few years, usually in Perth I feel
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
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Correct. I remember Port ambushing the Eagles in Perth on Good Friday.
LukeParkerno1
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Well which dumbo changed it. Should be a game tonight
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Few plays on the PointsBet Stat Multiplier for North and the Blues.
Stephenson OVER 29- play based on averages and he could go off in a similar way to the same team 2 years ago. As mentioned before, 2 years ago, he got 24 disposals and 3 goals.
Cunnington OVER 79- I dont mind it , given I have him pencilled in for a goal in this game.
Paul Curtis OVER 25- At a low line, I do have a gut feeling he can get at least 2 goals here.
Ed Curnow OVER 43- a relatively low line for a player that averages 65.2 over the last 3 years.
Motlop OVER 20- achieved his highest Stat Multiplier last week of 120.
Simpkin UNDER 74- this is double his normal average (almost)
Zurhaar UNDER 110-pretty sure anytime last year he was about half this value. Even it was a bit of a stress to see him get 20 disposals last week. With LDU and Simpkin coming back in it, he gets less of the pill.
Patrick Cripps UNDER 221- hasnt scored a goal this year. Im going against the trend in this one, considering he loves playing the Roos. Has achieved scores of 330 and 286 in the past 2 years.
Harry McKay UNDER 99- this again is almost double his line from last year. He had 0 goals last week, and even a bag of 3 goals, probably doesnt see him clear the overs line. McKay averages 2.05 handballs a game in the last 3 years as well, so even if he kicks a lazy 10, McKay never striked me as a player that liked handballing.
Cerra OVER 56- One going against the stats, as I think he is a better chance of getting a goal than some of the other mids. I think he only clears 56 line, in the last three years 8 out of 39 times, but its a better bet than anytime goalscorer on Cerra I feel. His last score against the Roos was a 168. its a speculative play as I can see Carltons mids stepping in and getting goals. Its a speculative play, given his line in 2022 was a lot lower, around the 40-48 range. But with these bets, you go on instinct and not all about numbers.
All other players NO PLAY. George Hewett didnt look that fit last week. Davies Uniacke I have him pencilled in for a goal but cant take that line. Goldstein is getting older and slower now and doesnt get as much as the ball. Larkey can see him getting his 3 goals or so but a bit like McKay doesnt tend to handball as much.Bailey Scott, Turner, Tom Powell, Sheezel, Curtis Taylor, Silvagni, Charlie Curnow, Fisher, Docherty and Tom De Koning all average below their averages in the last 3 years and i dont really like any of their spreads.
All using $1 minimum stakes
All note: Motlop line of 20 has moved up to 47 at the time of writing. So ill count that as 47 , by the end of todays game. I should have got a bit quicker with my fingers .
Stephenson OVER 29- play based on averages and he could go off in a similar way to the same team 2 years ago. As mentioned before, 2 years ago, he got 24 disposals and 3 goals.
Cunnington OVER 79- I dont mind it , given I have him pencilled in for a goal in this game.
Paul Curtis OVER 25- At a low line, I do have a gut feeling he can get at least 2 goals here.
Ed Curnow OVER 43- a relatively low line for a player that averages 65.2 over the last 3 years.
Motlop OVER 20- achieved his highest Stat Multiplier last week of 120.
Simpkin UNDER 74- this is double his normal average (almost)
Zurhaar UNDER 110-pretty sure anytime last year he was about half this value. Even it was a bit of a stress to see him get 20 disposals last week. With LDU and Simpkin coming back in it, he gets less of the pill.
Patrick Cripps UNDER 221- hasnt scored a goal this year. Im going against the trend in this one, considering he loves playing the Roos. Has achieved scores of 330 and 286 in the past 2 years.
Harry McKay UNDER 99- this again is almost double his line from last year. He had 0 goals last week, and even a bag of 3 goals, probably doesnt see him clear the overs line. McKay averages 2.05 handballs a game in the last 3 years as well, so even if he kicks a lazy 10, McKay never striked me as a player that liked handballing.
Cerra OVER 56- One going against the stats, as I think he is a better chance of getting a goal than some of the other mids. I think he only clears 56 line, in the last three years 8 out of 39 times, but its a better bet than anytime goalscorer on Cerra I feel. His last score against the Roos was a 168. its a speculative play as I can see Carltons mids stepping in and getting goals. Its a speculative play, given his line in 2022 was a lot lower, around the 40-48 range. But with these bets, you go on instinct and not all about numbers.
All other players NO PLAY. George Hewett didnt look that fit last week. Davies Uniacke I have him pencilled in for a goal but cant take that line. Goldstein is getting older and slower now and doesnt get as much as the ball. Larkey can see him getting his 3 goals or so but a bit like McKay doesnt tend to handball as much.Bailey Scott, Turner, Tom Powell, Sheezel, Curtis Taylor, Silvagni, Charlie Curnow, Fisher, Docherty and Tom De Koning all average below their averages in the last 3 years and i dont really like any of their spreads.
All using $1 minimum stakes
All note: Motlop line of 20 has moved up to 47 at the time of writing. So ill count that as 47 , by the end of todays game. I should have got a bit quicker with my fingers .
TheCandyMan
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ferrisb
Brownlow Medallist
Motlop 15+ @ $7 on TAB
Only ever done it once in 15 matches, but that was last week.
Had 17 touches, including 10 outside 50 and 5 defensive side of ground.
Only ever done it once in 15 matches, but that was last week.
Had 17 touches, including 10 outside 50 and 5 defensive side of ground.
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Because I was a bit annoyed at PointsBet changing that line form 20 to 47, Ive taken a bit of a nibble on Jesse Motlop for 15+ Disposals at TAB at $7.00
Feel that maybe a better bet than Motlop OVERS on the Stat Multiplier in case he gets a goal or less.
Good Luck all.
Feel that maybe a better bet than Motlop OVERS on the Stat Multiplier in case he gets a goal or less.
Good Luck all.
TheCandyMan
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Sheezel still forward in the final teams.
curtis taylor listed back he's a deadset forward?
Hellboy101
Senior List
Tailed Motlop @7. Motlop day for me. Spread is up to 65.
Also Blues first to 35 and race to 20 in qtrs 2,3 &4@ $8. Neds
Also Blues first to 35 and race to 20 in qtrs 2,3 &4@ $8. Neds
How slow is the AFL app to update the teams….
Why do you get a Motlop boost when all I get is Kane ****ing Turner?
Maybe this is the day.Sheezel still forward in the final teams.
Yeah maybe. I remember North named Ziebell forward in the final teams 12 months ago in that infamous game, so I'll kick myself if I don't have a few shekels on sheezel if he does indeed play forward.
TheCandyMan
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Yeh weird especially considering I hit Brockman last week for 3+ with the boost
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