AFL 2023 - AFL Round 5

[balmainforever]

 

[Eddie Murphy]

Ok this one is going to hurt me again, cause this prick owes me.

Ben keayes.
Last 3 rounds he's kicked 0.2, 0.2, 0.2
But once in a blue moon this prick kicks straight and I would kick myself if I'm not on him. He kicked 4 in a praccy so he can do it.

AGS $2.05
2+ $6
3+ $19

Edit: last year against Carlton he kicked 3.1
He's due!

Worth noting though that in last year's encounter neither of Rachele or Rankine played, who'd surely be taking some goal scoring opportunities away from Keays.

 

[Torpedro]

Jordan Dawson

12

Jordan Dawson

Age

27

Ht

191cm

Wt

91kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.0

4star

K

11.4

4star

HB

5.7

4star

M

4.8

5star

T

2.8

4star

CL

0.6

3star

D

15.7

4star

K

10.9

4star

HB

4.9

3star

M

2.9

3star

T

2.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

D

11.8

3star

K

7.8

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

5.0

5star

T

3.0

5star

CL

0.6

3star

AGS

$2.75 @tab

Has moved into the midfield the past 2 weeks for a return of 1.0 & 1.1

Even last year playing predominantly defence he averaged 1 goal per 2 games

 

[ferrisb]

If we get bad weather on the Saturday I wouldn't be going anywhere near the Lions/North game for goal scorers playing on a country ground with no stands or weather blocks

Forecast predicts rain on three of next four days.

High of 15 and raining on gameday.

75% of at least 4mm. 25% chance of 20mm+. Yikes!!!

I'm not saying it's going to be horrible weather and super low scoring... But apropos nothing, I'd like to point out that <102.5 total match points is paying $101

 

[1972championsofaust]

It’s not $9 () but geez the $3.30 for 2 Rayner goals on 365 is nice against North.

Also, Norwood Stadium has the narrowest dimensions in the league by far from my quick research and is also one of the smallest in length if that means anything.

But they are not playing at Norwood Oval…. North are playing at Mt.Barker in the Adelaide Hills(Summit Stadium) sold out 7K and it’s new playing surface makes it larger than the Norwood ground.

 

[ferrisb]

Forecast predicts rain on three of next four days.

High of 15 and raining on gameday.

75% of at least 4mm. 25% chance of 20mm+. Yikes!!!

I'm not saying it's going to be horrible weather and super low scoring... But apropos nothing, I'd like to point out that <102.5 total match points is paying $101

Not sure the weather will be all-time bad on Sat, but a suburban ground after days of rain with no wind protection...

This article lists a (baker's) dozen of the wettest matches of the last 25 years.

Wet weather footy: The most bogged games in recent memory

Wet weather footy: The most soaked recent games

foxsports.com.au

The 13 matches listed had an average match score of 130, waaay below normal scores.

That included 5/13 that were 120 or less (paying $18 on SB) and two matches <100 points (admittedly one was a pre-season match) - paying $101 on SB.

Small sample. Pretty degen. But that's what we live for.

Edit: lowest score last year was 43-42 Port v STK round 7. Was played in really wet conditions at the semi-suburban ground Cazalys stadium in NT....admittedly the low score was helped by both teams (especially STK) having the absolute yips that day.

 

[pendlebury_10]

In case the weather/grounds become an absolute sh*tshow - Taking $1 doubles on all games except Thursday night.

To give you some perspective in 2022 only one game went under 100 (Port v StK), but one landed at 102 and another two at 104.

 

[dontlimitme]

In case the weather/grounds become an absolute sh*tshow. Taking $1 doubles on all games except Thursday night.

To give you some perspective in 2022 only one game went under 100 (Port v StK), but one landed at 102 and another two at 104.

tailed

 

[EFL Boy]

Players who have cleared the mark in 100% of games they've played this year and their odds on SB:

 

[targett]

Topsport

 

[Nuggetz]

Surely by the time Sunday games roll in the AO ground will be wrecked. Happy to back unders on late sat games at AO & Sunday games in this unique situation.

 

[X_box_X]

NRL Magic Round last season:



Different sport obviously, but the situation is similar with all matches being played at the same venue within 48hrs. The scores there clearly weren't affected.

Three games on Sunday producing totals of 48, 40 and 55.


Magic round the year prior with all eight matches played at the same ground:




Scores were incredibly high. The lowest being 38, with totals of 52, 62 and 60 on the Sunday.

It's obviously a unique situation in the AFL, but perhaps we can use another sport as a guide that the condition of the ground (from multiple matches) may not affect scoring too much.

The weather is obviously a different story, and the forecast isn't great, so betting unders seems a good go based primarily on that.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Surely by the time Sunday games roll in the AO ground will be wrecked. Happy to back unders on late sat games at AO & Sunday games in this unique situation.

Depends how much rain they get on Saturday

 

[Suncraze]

Lakers ML/Geelong/Bris/Dees ML $2.05 1u

 

[sohohoho]

NRL Magic Round last season:

View attachment 1657416

Different sport obviously, but the situation is similar with all matches being played at the same venue within 48hrs. The scores there clearly weren't affected.

Three games on Sunday producing totals of 48, 40 and 55.


Magic round the year prior with all eight matches played at the same ground:

View attachment 1657417


Scores were incredibly high. The lowest being 38, with totals of 52, 62 and 60 on the Sunday.

It's obviously a unique situation in the AFL, but perhaps we can use another sport as a guide that the condition of the ground (from multiple matches) may not affect scoring too much.

The weather is obviously a different story, and the forecast isn't great, so betting unders seems a good go based primarily on that.

Suncorp is the highest scoring venue in the league.

Repeat games won't have much of an impact, its Adelaide Oval not some dump in the country

 

[Long Shot Louie]

Ned Reeves atg@$4.50 B365
Ned Reeves 2+@$34
Ned Reeves 3+@$251

Watched the Hawks game on Monday and Reeves and Meek were both forward a fair bit with no Hawks forward listed above 187cm. Ball was put on Big Neds head in the forward line on multiple occasions but conditions and perhaps lack of coordination conspired against him on the day. This Giants vs Hawks game will be played on Norwood oval which I am led to believe the dimensions of such could lead to more central bombing into the forward line. Another note is that both Draper and Phillips were dominant against the Giants last week, taking 7 contested marks between them. No goals so far this year for Ned but he did kick 6 from the last 6 games last year so he is definitely capable. Conditions for Sunday afternoon look alright in Norwood but who would farken know with the BOM.

 

[X_box_X]

Suncorp is the highest scoring venue in the league.

Repeat games won't have much of an impact, its Adelaide Oval not some dump in the country

Are you suggesting Adelaide Oval is a dump?

 

[GROTTO]

Ok this one is going to hurt me again, cause this prick owes me.

Ben keayes.
Last 3 rounds he's kicked 0.2, 0.2, 0.2
But once in a blue moon this prick kicks straight and I would kick myself if I'm not on him. He kicked 4 in a praccy so he can do it.

AGS $2.05
2+ $6
3+ $19

Edit: last year against Carlton he kicked 3.1
He's due!

Ben Keayes shooting for goal makes Cumberland look like Wayne Carey.

Keayes may get his shots at goal, Im not disputing that, however his kicking is beyond shocking. He literally shits himself with his set shot kicks.

Any Crows supporter or anyone that has followed him will testify to this.

I was wondering how the f**k he did kick 3 goals in that game and then I remembered.

The first one was Joe the Goose in the goal square.

4.55

2nd One was again from the goal square.

6.25

3rd one was again from the goal square.

8.21

Mini-Match: Adelaide v Carlton

Extended highlights of the Crows and Blues clash in round 20

www.afl.com.au

Dont get me wrong, Adelaide may again do this tactic with Keays and he may kick your goals, but remember if its set shots only, no way is he kicking 4+ and yes I will eat my shoe if he kicks only 3+ if its 3 set shots at goal.

 

[GROTTO]

If he gets swung forward and we didnt bet on him, we'd all feel Sicily...






... I'll show myself out.

 

[X_box_X]

Keayes may get his shots at goal, Im not disputing that, however his kicking is beyond shocking. He literally shits himself with his set shot kicks.

 

[kicksome]

im ready to have my heart broken.
A Degen's gotta degen

 

[GROTTO]

im ready to have my heart broken.
A Degen's gotta degen

I cant recall who you backed on Easter Monday, but surely you jumped on JC ?

Degen's heart broken and the sun rising every day, goes hand in hand.

Unless they go all the way to 6+, we are never happy.

 

[kicksome]

cant recall who you backed on Easter Monday, but surely you jumped on JC ?

Nar I actually didn't I left JC alone for some reason. I was on brad close and stengle. But also a few hawks players because I thought they would be more competitive than that

 

[GROTTO]

Nar I actually didn't I left JC alone for some reason. I was on brad close and stengle. But also a few hawks players because I thought they would be more competitive than that

Hawks led the Cats at QT and HT when the weather was good. I think they would have won had it been dry for the entire game and hence helped with gs.

I definitely believe had Brockman kicked that soda in the first quarter, it may have broken the Cats spirit, would have led by 4 goals. Its a not huge lead, but momentum and confidence would have meant a lot.

I knew when it started raining that the Cats would win, big mature bodies is massive.

Cameron is what kept the Cats in the game at HT.

 

[BigStacks]

Jarrod Witts

28

Jarrod Witts

Age

32

Ht

209cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.2

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

5.8

4star

CL

3.3

5star

HO

31.8

5star

D

10.8

3star

K

5.9

2star

HB

4.9

3star

CL

3.4

4star

HO

29.5

5star

D

7.8

2star

K

4.2

2star

HB

3.6

3star

CL

0.4

3star

HO

8.0

5star

is likely to miss again, so gonna go with Sean Darcy

4

Sean Darcy

Age

26

Ht

203cm

Wt

111kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.1

3star

K

3.4

1star

HB

6.6

4star

CL

2.4

4star

HO

28.8

5star

D

6.8

1star

K

2.0

1star

HB

4.8

3star

CL

1.8

4star

HO

20.3

5star

D

11.4

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

6.8

5star

CL

2.6

5star

HO

32.0

5star

. Rowan Marshall

19

Rowan Marshall

Age

29

Ht

201cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.4

4star

K

8.8

3star

HB

6.6

4star

CL

3.4

5star

HO

20.2

5star

D

12.9

3star

K

9.3

4star

HB

3.6

2star

CL

2.8

4star

HO

17.8

5star

D

10.6

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

4.8

4star

CL

1.0

3star

HO

7.8

5star

had 21 against Ned Moyle last week and would've had more if he wasn't subbed out. So backing in Darcy to do something similar.

Sean Darcy

4

Sean Darcy

Age

26

Ht

203cm

Wt

111kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.1

3star

K

3.4

1star

HB

6.6

4star

CL

2.4

4star

HO

28.8

5star

D

6.8

1star

K

2.0

1star

HB

4.8

3star

CL

1.8

4star

HO

20.3

5star

D

11.4

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

6.8

5star

CL

2.6

5star

HO

32.0

5star

15+ $1.63
20+ $4
Both SB

 

[GROTTO]

Jarrod Witts is likely to miss again, so gonna go with Sean Darcy. Rowan Marshall had 21 against Ned Moyle last week and would've had more if he wasn't subbed out. So backing in Darcy to do something similar.

Sean Darcy
15+ $1.63
20+ $4
Both SB

Glory be, who bashed it in already?