AFL 2023 - AFL Round 5

[balmainforever]

 

[Its not the coach]

Hail Mary, Degenerate, Mug punt for the week.
Rory Sloane

9

Rory Sloane

Age

34

Ht

183cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.7

5star

K

11.7

4star

HB

11.9

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

6.6

5star

CL

5.7

5star

D

15.3

4star

K

7.3

3star

HB

8.0

4star

M

1.3

1star

T

3.3

4star

CL

4.2

5star

D

22.2

5star

K

8.6

4star

HB

13.6

5star

M

3.2

4star

T

6.0

5star

CL

4.6

5star

1+2+3+ @4.75,41,301 bet365 going alright named forward Flank, Has kicked multiple goals 29 times in his career including 5 bags of 3, Hasn't kicked a goal since round 16 2021, Has found a bit of form of late and is a good kick at goal if he gets a look.

 

[X_box_X]

From time to time, I like to come here in peace to give you guys some gold. This is one of those occasions.




Cripps is good value here considering only five players in this group are playing. One of them is coming back from injury, while Dawson is likely to be tagged. That leaves Cripps, Laird and Hewett.

Cripps is paying $3.10 w SB (group of eight) and $3.30 w PB (group of 16).

I like to keep a lot of my plays close to my chest, but I'll give you this one.

P.S. 41 & 35 v Adelaide last year.

 

[Fizza]

Anytime goal scorer degen roulette across all 9 games.
Jordan Daws on(point)AGS
Bailey Hum phrey(money)AGS
Harry Cunning(plan) ham AGS
Jaiden Stephen (go on)son AGS
Nic Mart in(the bag) AGS
Connor (don't kick into)Rozee AGS
Jayden Hunt

5

Jayden Hunt

Age

29

Ht

188cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

5.3

1star

K

3.3

1star

HB

2.0

2star

M

1.7

2star

T

2.3

4star

MG

78.7

1star

D

5.3

1star

K

3.3

1star

HB

2.0

1star

M

1.7

2star

T

2.3

3star

MG

78.7

1star

D

5.3

2star

K

3.3

2star

HB

2.0

2star

M

1.7

2star

T

2.3

4star

MG

78.7

2star

(them bookies) AGS
Chad Wing(ittttt) gard AGS
Mattaes Phill(it up) pou AGS

9 leg multi, powered @ $177.41 SB

 

[jikost]

lol, who the **** are these randoms TAB have included in their markets??

 

[freddy mercury]

Laird 30+
Rankine, curnow, mckay all 2+
2U @ 7.10 boosted

 

[X_box_X]

lol, who the * are these randoms TAB have included in their markets??

View attachment 1658121
View attachment 1658126

You think that's bad? Earlier they had Lawrence Angwin, Karl Norman, Glenn Manton, Simon Wiggins, Chris Groom, Ryan Fitzgerald, Kym Koster and Ian Perrie included.

 

[ferrisb]

Hawks led the Cats at QT and HT when the weather was good. I think they would have won had it been dry for the entire game and hence helped with gs.

I definitely believe had Brockman kicked that soda in the first quarter, it may have broken the Cats spirit, would have led by 4 goals. Its a not huge lead, but momentum and confidence would have meant a lot.

I knew when it started raining that the Cats would win, big mature bodies is massive.

Cameron is what kept the Cats in the game at HT.

If the Hawks are tanki...ahem, prioritising development.... It wouldn't surprise me to see them lead teams at QT and HT but lose the match.

They show they are competitive but just conveniently can't manage to hold on for the whole game. They are also a young and inexperienced team, so even if they were giving it everything it wouldn't surprise to see them run out of puff during matches.

Falling away late in games might not be fun watching for Hawks fans, but it might provide some degen opportunities.

The Hawks are dead. Long live the Hawks!

 

[ferrisb]

god damn weeks are too long while waiting for games

lost money betting on ******* womens soccer friendlies this morning

Maybe someone should limit you?

 

[ferrisb]

From time to time, I like to come here in peace to give you guys some gold. This is one of those occasions.

View attachment 1658099


Cripps is good value here considering only five players in this group are playing. One of them is coming back from injury, while Dawson is likely to be tagged. That leaves Cripps, Laird and Hewett.

Cripps is paying $3.10 w SB (group of eight) and $3.30 w PB (group of 16).

I like to keep a lot of my plays close to my chest, but I'll give you this one.

P.S. 41 & 35 v Adelaide last year.

Great tip.

I was working late and just saw this. They've fixed the market and Cripps now at $3.10...

 

[freo_leo29]

lol, who the * are these randoms TAB have included in their markets??

View attachment 1658121
View attachment 1658126

I'm on Fischer mcasey, he is only retired

 

[kicksome]

Jacob 'get to the chopper' Hopper had a pretty decent heat map last week. 6 disposals inside the forward 50 and kicking 1.2. he kicked 1.0 the week before. No lynch this week so maybe he tries to sneak down there again?

AGS $3.20
2+ $17
3+ $100

B365

 

[Long Shot Louie]

I expect Carlton will win pretty easy tomorrow night.
The Crows are really being carried by their gun forward line but I think that will be nullified by Carltons highly underrated lockdown defenders.
Carlton look stronger everywhere else on the field.
1u Carlton h2h
0.5u Carlton 40+@$6.50
0.5u Richmond 40+@$17
And 0.1 units on the ultra degen double:
Carlton40+/Richmond 40+@$115
B365.

Richmond will either get done in a close one or win comfortably. Slightly more likely the latter.

 

[BloodRet]

Lachie Neale

9

Lachie Neale

Age

31

Ht

178cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.0

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

15.5

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.7

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

28.3

5star

K

13.9

5star

HB

14.4

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

7.4

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

. Now I don’t usually touch disposals they’re not my thing, but on history, I quite like this. Neale is a South Australian, so I went and looked at how he has performed over there in his last games.

36 disposals 1 goal vs Adelaide last year.
46 disposals vs Melbourne 2021 in a losing finals side at Adelaide Oval
38 disposals vs Port 2018
34 disposals 1 goal vs Port 2017
17 disposals (the only outlier) in 100 point loss vs Adelaide 2017
40 disposals vs Adelaide 2016

Pointsbet are offering 2.10, 5.50 and 19 for 30, 35 and 40 respectively, and against North where Brisbane should dominate possession, I like it a lot.

I’ve also taken 2 and 3 @15, 67 (sorry I moved the odds as I laid down they’re smaller now but still $16 for 2 on sb) goals just because it’s North and they should kick a score.

 

[mookieb]

Jarrod Witts is likely to miss again, so gonna go with Sean Darcy. Rowan Marshall had 21 against Ned Moyle last week and would've had more if he wasn't subbed out. So backing in Darcy to do something similar.

Sean Darcy
15+ $1.63
20+ $4
Both SB

What makes you think he misses again? Listed as missing with general soreness which normally equates to a weeks rest.

 

[BloodRet]

I reckon Dusty could ragdoll any Swans defender with the Mccartin brothers out unless Rampe goes to him but probably takes Reiwoldt. Who’s gonna get body on him? Nick ****ing Blakey? Brayden Campbell? Lewis Pelican?
I’m playing 3-5 @7, 17 pb and 81 sb

 

[Long Shot Louie]

I reckon Dusty could ragdoll any Swans defender with the Mccartin brothers out unless Rampe goes to him but probably takes Reiwoldt. Who’s gonna get body on him? Nick ******* Blakey? Brayden Campbell? Lewis Pelican?
I’m playing 3-5 @7, 17 pb and 81 sb

I agree and I’ve tailed. Mccartins out is huge because they are stars and very underated imo. The other one I’ll look into if Ben Miller is named is Sampson Ryan. 3 out of Ryan’s 4 games have been played in atrocious conditions for a big man and the one dry game he’s played he kicked a few. Serious lack of height in this Swans defence and I wouldn’t consider Blakey to be a tall because I reckon my Nan could body him in a 1v1.

 

[BloodRet]

I agree and I’ve tailed. Mccartins out is huge because they are stars and very underated imo. The other one I’ll look into if Ben Miller is named is Sampson Ryan. 3 out of Ryan’s 4 games have been played in atrocious conditions for a big man and the one dry game he’s played he kicked a few. Serious lack of height in this Swans defence and I wouldn’t consider Blakey to be a tall because I reckon my Nan could body him in a 1v1.

Yeah agree with Sampson. Massive height advantage. Will probably be tailing on Friday closer to the bounce depending on how the weather holds out.

 

[Long Shot Louie]

Riewoldt very nice odds on B365 as well. Much less on other books.
2+@$2.34
3+@$4.75
4+@$14
5+@$40
6+@$125

Returning from being essentially dropped. Should have a point to prove as the leader of the Richmond forward line against this depleted Swans defence. Only Swans defender who might be able to put the skids on him would be Rampe and he could even go to Dusty at times. Good wet weather player as well. Good kick still, doesn’t need too many chances.

 

[BigStacks]

What makes you think he misses again? Listed as missing with general soreness which normally equates to a weeks rest.

I thought one week too. Stewie Dew had a press conference today where he said that that it’s hard to put a timeline on whatever he’s going through and that they wouldn’t risk him if he can’t get up as he’s been playing through this soreness since Round1. Obviously not a certainty to miss, more reading between the lines.

 

[ferrisb]

You know you are a degen when...

You message your mate Luke and predictive text suggests Jackson and then Stats...

 

[ferrisb]

Fun fact...

Luke Jackson

9

Luke Jackson

Age

23

Ht

199cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

2star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

3star

K

3.3

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

has kicked 2+ against GC every time he has played them...

Ok, sample size of only two. But what a two games!

17d and 4g
21d and 2g

15d & 3g paying $22.50 on SB with an any leg fails bonus on SGMs.

 

[Long Shot Louie]

Look, basically what I’m saying is that if you wanna be successful and drive a Bugatti then what you gotta do is open up your B365 app at 1am and put 47 $5 bets on all the Richmond forwards multied into each other in different combinations because this Swans defence is a disaster.

 

[GROTTO]

lol, who the * are these randoms TAB have included in their markets??

View attachment 1658121
View attachment 1658126

If someone has backed McAsey, youre the worst form of degen out there, he has left the Crows and lives in Victoria and taken up a new job. lol.

 

[Jim Levenstein]

Fair enough hope people took advantage, Im hearing ya But 75%of people with the Sportsbet app in this country are mug punters who do their usual goal kickers and disposal markets. The mug punters market is huge. No offence intended to the mug punters. I am lots of the time.

I’m somewhere between a mug and degenerate punter. There is a reason they have moved offering me bet returns if one leg fails on SGM to any leg fails.

 

[HTPunter]

I’m still feeling O’Meara goals.

Tabs out, Brodie likely in. Mids gonna be reshuffled.

Got him $350 for 4 earlier in the week, now $250. But throwaway bet regardless, he isn’t kicking 4 (just a bit of fun). Also sprinkled on 3 for $34.

Odds I really like are $9 for 2. B365.

He might have lost some of his power he looked like having as a young player, but he’s always been a genuine footy player who has smarts. Getting forward 50 ball, just needs it to fall his way.