AFL 2023 - AFL Round 5

[balmainforever]

 

[GROTTO]

Most likely but stuffed if Im not expecting a size 11 nike to be eaten on the off chance it happens. PPV event right here in the degen den

dontlimitme almost got me to eat my shoe.

He picked two 1st goal kickers and the only reason Hogan didnt kick the goal as he was awarded a free kick in the goal square, is because the player that kicked it towards him, ie Daniels kicked a goal.

 

[TheCatsMan]

AFL PointsBet Stat Multiplier Spreads for Adeladie v Carlton (Goals x Kicks x Handballs) and some reasoning behind each bet.

I have decided to mix and match stake units for these spreads.

View attachment 1658882

$0.50 unit stakes
Cripps OVER 194- been umming and arghing the last 24 hours over this one. Given he is priced at $1.53 to score a goal today, I feel that the value in him lies in the OVER on the stat multiplier, if you think he can goal. $1.53 is a much poorer price in my opinion to score a goal than going Overs on the Stat Multiplier. His averages for kicks would be a little concerning given he doesnt average more than 10 kicks a game suprisingly over the last 3 years. Last time he scored a 468 against Adelaide , so im happy to board the majority on here who reckon he can go today. 11 of 45 times he has gone OVER the 194 line, so yes its a bet going against the trends for sure.

$0.50 unit stakes
Sam Walsh OVER 94- taking a place based on his average over the last 3 years. Again the only concern here is how Carlton manage him given his first game back.

$1.00 unit stakes
Cerra OVER 42- a play based on averages over the last 3 years. The 42 line he he cleared 8 times from 40 games. Its a low line to play for more reward and less risk.

$1.00 unit stakes
Walkers OVER 88- last years line for him was in the triple figures , around the 107 mark, so Im happy to take a play on here. With an average of 130 or so past 3 years im happy to take a play on this as I agree with another poster here , he may play up the field.

$1.00 unit stakes
Keays OVER 69- happy to take a play on the OVERS , given this line too was much higher last year, seeing around 83-97 range. I can also see him scoring a goal and maybe multiples.

$1.00 stakes
Rachele UNDER 132- achieved his largest multiplier last week. This looks like a little let down spot for him as I can a game where Carlton focus more attention to him and maybe a bit more attention to him. Kind of player that 15 disposals or so from him can change a game to his team favour.

$1.00 stake
Charlie Curnow UNDER 68- averages 1.9 handballs a game, and even if he kicks 5 goals, this may still be safe.

$1.00 stakes
Zac Fisher UNDER 69-a play based on numbers despite his 28 disposals last week.



Same Game Multis:

1.00 unit
Walker 15+ Disposals
Cerra Over 24.5 Disposals
Keays Over 19.5 Disposals
Odds: $10.60 (Boosted)


0.15 units
Walker 15+ Disposals
Cerra Over 24.5 Disposals
Keays Over 19.5 Disposals
Patrick Cripps Most Disposals Group 1 (Laird, Cripps, Dawson, Walsh, Hewett, Keays, Sloane and Cerra)
Odds: $32.25

0.3125 units
Cripps Most Disposals Group A(Walsh, Laird, Cripps, Dawson, Hewett, Kennedy, Sloane, Keays)
Brodie Smith Most Disposals Group B (Brodie Smith, Cerra, Saad, Acres, Brodie Smith, Newman, Soligo, Sholl, Rachele)
Odds: $39.44 Ladbrokes

Gotta say, I really appreciate these points breakdowns. I havent had the balls to set one up myself. Also, followed your 1 unit multi.

 

[ferrisb]

I saw this today and figured someone here has spent their Rayner train money...

 

[Selim]

taking a few risk especially on bloody silvagni but he has to do something one day right

McKay 4,5 @ 5.50, 12

Fogarty 3,4,5 @3.50, 8.25, 21

Pedler 1,2,3 @ 1.78, 4.90, 16

Silvagni 2,3,4 @3.50, 11, 29

 

[Long Shot Louie]

No Rampe for swans sheeesh that is the smallest backline I’ve ever seen. Dusty and Reiwoldt could have a big one between them

Like I said last night. It’s Bugatti time.

Look, basically what I’m saying is that if you wanna be successful and drive a Bugatti then what you gotta do is open up your B365 app at 1am and put 47 $5 bets on all the Richmond forwards multied into each other in different combinations because this Swans defence is a disaster.

Just keep hitting all the Richmond forward buttons in $5 bursts until they stop taking your bets and then move onto the next combo. If your allowed to double or triple dip then all the better. Riewoldt3/Martin3/Cumberland 3@$226 is a good start and then go Riewoldt4/Martin4/Cumberland2@800

Just keep going until you feel like you’ve got carpel tunnel in your thumb and then start on the other one. This is the best financial advice I can give anyone at this time.

 

[GROTTO]

I saw this today and figured someone here has spent their Rayner train money...

View attachment 1658944

This is how I roll in SA.

 

[BloodRet]

Curtis dropped and Sheezel named forward. 2+ 15 / 3+ 67 (PB) and 4+ 501 / 5+ 1001 (365).

Tailed 2 3

 

[GROTTO]

ELENI ALERT

She has Freo v Suns

 

[Fabab]

Did my stupid bet again 1st goalkickers
charlie curnow

30

Charlie Curnow

Age

27

Ht

194cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.3

3star

K

9.7

4star

HB

3.6

3star

M

5.3

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.3

5star

No current season stats available

D

10.8

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

4.4

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.8

4star

michael walters

10

Michael Walters

Age

33

Ht

176cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.2

4star

K

11.0

4star

HB

6.2

4star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.9

4star

G

1.7

5star

D

20.9

5star

K

11.8

5star

HB

9.1

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

3.3

4star

G

1.0

4star

D

13.0

4star

K

9.4

4star

HB

3.6

3star

M

4.4

4star

T

1.8

4star

G

0.8

4star

isaac heeney

5

Isaac Heeney

Age

28

Ht

185cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.2

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

7.7

5star

M

4.9

5star

T

4.1

5star

CL

2.2

4star

D

14.3

3star

K

8.8

4star

HB

5.5

3star

M

4.8

4star

T

2.5

3star

CL

0.8

3star

D

10.4

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.4

4star

CL

0.8

3star

jeremy cameron

5

Jeremy Cameron

Age

31

Ht

196cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.5

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

2.6

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

2.9

2star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.4

4star

G

2.0

5star

6 x $5 doubles 4 x $5 trebles $5 fourfold.

 

[magpies77]

Fog 2+
McKay 2+
Cripps AGS
Hewett 25+
$8.00

Durdin 2+, 3+, 4+ 4.75, 16.00, 81.00

Durdin AGS
Silvagni AGS
Rankine 2+
$4.33

Cripps Most Disposals TAB
$3.50

Good luck all, lets all gather round for a monster weekend!

 

[toenail11]

Curtis dropped and Sheezel named forward. 2+ 15 / 3+ 67 (PB) and 4+ 501 / 5+ 1001 (365).

Here we go again
Tailed 2-4

 

[BigStacks]

Dylan Williams from Port? Played half-back last week but with Darcy Byrne-Jones

33

Darcy Byrne-jones

Age

29

Ht

181cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.0

4star

K

11.8

4star

HB

6.2

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.8

4star

G

0.1

2star

D

25.0

5star

K

16.0

5star

HB

9.0

4star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.0

2star

G

0.0

1star

D

19.8

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

9.4

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.2

4star

G

0.4

3star

promoted from sub and Ryan Burton

3

Ryan Burton

Age

27

Ht

191cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.5

5star

K

12.1

4star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.1

4star

MG

277.3

4star

D

16.8

4star

K

12.3

5star

HB

4.5

3star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.0

2star

MG

277.3

4star

D

13.4

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

4.4

4star

M

4.8

5star

T

2.2

4star

back in the side makes me think he may swing forward to his natural position given the abundance of half-backs in the side and he's named there also although I don't put much weight into that anymore.

$4.25 AGS
$29 2+
$201 3+
$1000 4+
b365

 

[Nuggetz]

I've never seen the swans tall defensive stocks this bad, gone HAM on Richmond fwds. My fav is reiwoldt/bolton/martin all 2+ @17 on 365 & also 3+ @151

 

[Nuggetz]

Look, I'm not a tin foil hat campaigner BUT surely the AFL let the umpires know they want a goal scoring action packed first game of their inaugural GATHER ROUND

 

[dontlimitme]

Limited to 1$ stakes on 365 lads it’s been a pleasure

 

[Selim]

boys shot in the dark but Zac Fishers 100th game tonight

1+ @1.87
2+ @5
3+ @17
4+ @80

he is a spud but maybe some magic in game 100

 

[GROTTO]

Limited to 1$ stakes on 365 lads it’s been a pleasure

Its impossible to be a consistent winning punter with most books.

Eventually they will limit/ban you.

Last weekend, you literally crucified them over Easter.

 

[Robo87]

Limited to 1$ stakes on 365 lads it’s been a pleasure

ah the 1st true sign of someone that has hurt and pissed off a bookie.
the confusing thing - was this brockman or rayner that caused that..

 

[Long Shot Louie]

Look, I'm not a tin foil hat campaigner BUT surely the AFL let the umpires know they want a goal scoring action packed first game of their inaugural GATHER ROUND

Should have been called kick some farken goals or we’ll burn the joint to the gROUND

 

[GROTTO]

ah the 1st true sign of someone that has hurt and pissed off a bookie.
the confusing thing - was this brockman or rayner that caused that..

It would be Rayner.

These books allow a few wins, but when you smoke them like we did with Rayner. They lose their shit.

 

[GROTTO]

Should have been called kick some farken goals or we’ll burn the joint to the gROUND

Please dont, we dont have much in Adelaide as it is.

 

[BloodRet]

Limited to 1$ stakes on 365 lads it’s been a pleasure

Scumbags

 

[GROTTO]

boys shot in the dark but Zac Fishers 100th game tonight

1+ @1.87
2+ @5
3+ @17
4+ @80

he is a spud but maybe some magic in game 100

I tailed you, at least I know Salvation Army has soup service on Fridays at lunch time.

 

[GROTTO]

Scumbags

Just get nan or pop to join up 365.

 

[jikost]

Corey Warner's had shots at goal in the VFL last couple of weeks. That's good enough for me...

Corey Warner 2+ @ $15 pb
Corey Warner 3+ @ $67