Analysis 2023 Draft Watch

[ray8182]

Just an ordinary game from him. Ran hard, used the ball well, got plenty of it and set up a few good plays.

Definitely not the ilk of the other players like Reid, Mckercher, Watson etc who really catch the eye for being a class above but he's a very reliable player.

Darcy Wilson has been very disappointing. I was keen on him and was expecting more in the champs. His involvement and intent/aggression hasn’t been what l expected. He looks too much of an outside player. Needs to get his hands dirty. his disposal has been ordinary at times too. Maybe he just had a down month but lm left feeling much more cautious about him.

Duursma on the other hand is a class above nearly all the players in under 18’s. His ball handling and skill is elite. Even his contested work is better than most. Could be top 5 in draft.


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[WalshistheGOAT]

Darcy Wilson has been very disappointing. I was keen on him and was expecting more in the champs. His involvement and intent/aggression hasn’t been what l expected. He looks too much of an outside player. Needs to get his hands dirty. his disposal has been ordinary at times too. Maybe he just had a down month but lm left feeling much more cautious about him.

Duursma on the other hand is a class above nearly all the players in under 18’s. His ball handling and skill is elite. Even his contested work is better than most. Could be top 5 in draft.


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Both have been pretty ordinary all champs long outside of today. Duursma is undoubtedly more talented but I think far more likely to be a bust of the two. If he had a bit more explosiveness and speed I'd be more confident in him but on occasions he looks like he's rather mid paced which is never ideal for a player who will start his career up forward or on the wing.

He's also extremely one sided which is also quite detrimental for a forward so I have a few doubts on Duursma as a prospect. Could end up as good as any but I'm not sure.

 

[ray8182]

Both have been pretty ordinary all champs long outside of today. Duursma is undoubtedly more talented but I think far more likely to be a bust of the two. If he had a bit more explosiveness and speed I'd be more confident in him but on occasions he looks like he's rather mid paced which is never ideal for a player who will start his career up forward or on the wing.

He's also extremely one sided which is also quite detrimental for a forward so I have a few doubts on Duursma as a prospect. Could end up as good as any but I'm not sure.

Duursma was very good in the first game playing midfield. I think one of the better players with his stoppage work in the first half a standout. He’s had two good excellent games and two ordinary. It was mentioned he was playing a little injured in previous game.

In the first game he was cleaner under pressure than the other players. His ball handling in contested, pressure situations really stood out. I was surprised at how good he looked on the inside.

Duursma won’t be a winger. I’m pretty sure of that. He will start out as a half forward and build into being a midfielder. Unless that is the draft camp exposes an endurance problem like Dow/stocker.

I don’t see an issue with his pace, think he moves well, has good power and a good leap.


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[WalshistheGOAT]

Duursma was very good in the first game playing midfield. I think one of the better players with his stoppage work in the first half a standout. He’s had two good excellent games and two ordinary. It was mentioned he was playing a little injured in previous game.

In the first game he was cleaner under pressure than the other players. His ball handling in contested, pressure situations really stood out. I was surprised at how good he looked on the inside.

Duursma won’t be a winger. I’m pretty sure of that. He will start out as a half forward and build into being a midfielder. Unless that is the draft camp exposes an endurance problem like Dow/stocker.

I don’t see an issue with his pace, think he moves well, has good power and a good leap.


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I think Duursma has more question marks is all I'm saying really, Wilson has the floor of a very good AFL wingmen due to his running power and general ability to find space. Good kick too for the most part without being elite. If things go well for him though he could end up an impact type that goes through the middle and has also shown ability to score goals resting up forward.

I think Duursma will have a tough time finding his feet if he cant create the separation he gets at junior levels which was the case when the u18s vsed Port and Carlton's VFL teams. I don't have many doubts over his ability to eventually become a good-great midfielder as I think he has great stoppage craft and the ability to get into space vs other midfielders. But would I bank on a player of his athletic traits to shake loose Isaac Quaynor or Connor Idun? Not sure at the moment is all I'm really saying at the moment.

One thing we haven't seen as much this champs compared to last year is Duursma's Fyfe like ability in the air. He's got freakishly good mitts and can launch like a springboard, that helps at the next level but I'd still like to see how he tests in terms of acceleration and endurance before I'd be on board with his selection at our pick if he made it that far.

 

[ray8182]

I think Duursma has more question marks is all I'm saying really, Wilson has the floor of a very good AFL wingmen due to his running power and general ability to find space. Good kick too for the most part without being elite. If things go well for him though he could end up an impact type that goes through the middle and has also shown ability to score goals resting up forward.

I think Duursma will have a tough time finding his feet if he cant create the separation he gets at junior levels which was the case when the u18s vsed Port and Carlton's VFL teams. I don't have many doubts over his ability to eventually become a good-great midfielder as I think he has great stoppage craft and the ability to get into space vs other midfielders. But would I bank on a player of his athletic traits to shake loose Isaac Quaynor or Connor Idun? Not sure at the moment is all I'm really saying at the moment.

One thing we haven't seen as much this champs compared to last year is Duursma's Fyfe like ability in the air. He's got freakishly good mitts and can launch like a springboard, that helps at the next level but I'd still like to see how he tests in terms of acceleration and endurance before I'd be on board with his selection at our pick if he made it that far.

I think if you’re looking for an elite runner that’s not duursma. Bit more of a power/impact player.

I was particularly interested in Wilson because of his running capacity. Thought he might be the type we are after. The question mark now with him is his contested footy. Ollie hollands was a terrific runner who, while not a strong inside midfielder that could standup in tackles, mixed it well in contested situations with a little bit of space. Does Darcy Wilson? Didn’t have the same intent and focus on the ball as Ollie.

Anyway looks like Carlton will have a pick around 10 roughly. So duursma won’t be available. If we are looking for medium size runners the likes of Wilson freijah and tholstrup will probably be available. I will be keeping an eye on these 3.


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[ItsAllAboutMe]

Obviously not this years draft but seems like the boys have no trouble finding the footy, anyone with a read on how the Campo twins are tracking other than these stats, neither made the national carnival team but as bottom aged players that doesnt mean a lot.

Glenelg - SANFL

sanfl.com.au

Glenelg - SANFL

sanfl.com.au

 

[Bletch]

Having a look at potential draft concessions...

Precedents:
Carlton (2018) - mild concessions (access to two state league players).
Gold Coast (2018) - mild concessions (as above)
Gold Coast (2019) - heavy concessions (extra pick start of round 1 & round 2, additional picks 2020, 2021, able to pre-list academy players)
North (2022) - mild concessions

Years leading to concessions:
Carlton (wins 2015-18): 4, 7, 6, 2
Gold Coast (wins 2015-19): 4, 6, 6, 4, 3

Note - we had just the 7 wins in 2019, but insufficient to warrant further concessions.

North (wins 2019-23): 10, 3#, 4, 2, 2*
WCE (wins 2019-23): 15, 12#, 10, 2, 1* (note these years follow premiership in 2018)
# (shortened season)
* (incomplete, current season)

Unlikely WCE would receive anything this year, but may do next year, if they have another poor year - North triggered mild concessions after 3 years of poor form. Carlton and Gold Coast were poorer for longer, but managed 6 and 7 wins in a couple of years over their poor periods.

North however, might have a claim for heavier concessions, given Gold Coast's 2019 precedent. BUT... there's no way the AFL would give away pick #1 to a team that hasn't finished on the bottom (similar to 2018 - they wanted to give GCS more then, but couldn't because Carlton were worse).

I'm certain North will ask for more concessions, but what will they get? And if they do, will it trigger an early concession for the Weagles? I don't think they'll get anywhere near Gold Coast's concessions, as part of the reasoning was Gold Coast losing players through the "go-home" factor, not just their ladder position. But potentially, any compensation could conceivably include an extra 1st round, 2nd round and access to academy - with a push to pre-list Sanders & Callinan.

No idea if the AFL would go this far, but they may do, there's a decent case for it from North's perspective.

Given it looks likely that Gold Coast's 3 academy kids (Walter, Read, Rogers) will all go first round, and potentially the Dog's father-son (Croft), we could see a first round of 23 picks, with Sanders, a likely top-10, excluded.

Our pick may be in the 10-12 range, but this pick could drift as low as 15-17. Same deal for any compensation pick we might have been hoping for if TDK leaves. It significantly changes the sort of names we're looking at, and also damages our chances of moving to the pointy end of the draft by trade.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I think if you’re looking for an elite runner that’s not duursma. Bit more of a power/impact player.

I was particularly interested in Wilson because of his running capacity. Thought he might be the type we are after. The question mark now with him is his contested footy. Ollie hollands was a terrific runner who, while not a strong inside midfielder that could standup in tackles, mixed it well in contested situations. Does Darcy Wilson?


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I'm more talking about his speed on the lead at AFL level and step when he's in congestion rather than his ability to run up and back to create separation. Anyway we can agree to disagree on Duursma, I've mentioned I'm personally just not as sold on him and would like to see his testing to confirm or disprove my opinions on a few things. Some games he looks like everything I'd want in a prospect and others he looks a bit slow and timid.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Wilsons final game of the champs. Some beautifully weighted kicks inside 50 and out wide, not amazing inside apart from getting the ball to boot rather quickly. In his state league games he certainly shows a bit more dare in taking on the tackler with his speed.

Still the best runner in the draft and one of the best kicks imo.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

What would we prefer as a set up if we go get 1 mature player to go with one of Watson or Duursma?

Durdin Curnow Gresham
Duursma Mckay Martin

or...

Durdin Curnow Watson
Ryan Mckay Martin

Essentially a mature age small fwd and a young mid-sized fwd

or

A young small fwd and a mature age mid-sized fwd



...I can't split them

 

[Aphrodite]

Top 20 rankings after the National Champs

AFL Draft 2023 Rankings: Gap between Reid and the rest closes as father-son guns boost prospects

Gap between best and rest closes; father-son guns surge: Top 30 draft rankings revealed

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[Stamos]

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' July ranking

AFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey delivers his first Phantom Form Guide ahead of the 2023 National Draft

www.afl.com.au

 

[Bletch]

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' July ranking

AFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey delivers his first Phantom Form Guide ahead of the 2023 National Draft

www.afl.com.au

Interesting both Cal and the Fox team now have both Croft and McCabe in the top-20. Along with the 3 Suns, that's 5 players that will attract bids before going elsewhere. Potentially 6 if Norf get their way with Sanders.

 

[Stamos]

Also 3 rucks and 4 Key Defenders seems a bit unusual.

 

[bradfisher14]

Cuningham Curnow Gresham
Duursma Mckay Martin

EFA - Sign me up.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Also 3 rucks and 4 Key Defenders seems a bit unusual.

This will change massively when the actual draft happens. Wait until a few more midfielders pop up their heads, they will start to drop the rucks and tall defenders down the order.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

This will change massively when the actual draft happens. Wait until a few more midfielders pop up their heads, they will start to drop the rucks and tall defenders down the order.

I don't think so, the talls in this draft are pretty special and the midfield talent is one of the shallowest in recent memory. This draft is a KPP heaven

 

[Aphrodite]

West Coast addresses report AFL No.1 draft pick favourite wants to stay in Victoria

Eagles address bombshell report No.1 draft pick favourite wants to stay in Victoria

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[BigFrizz36]

O'Sullivan from W.A. would be a great fit for us. Depending how we go from here he might be gone, but looks like a 10+ year centre half back in the making. Spine completed then just need to free agent another power half forward (or pray that Martin and cuningham stay fit) and our biggest holes are covered.

 

[Coona Blues]

O'Sullivan from W.A. would be a great fit for us. Depending how we go from here he might be gone, but looks like a 10+ year centre half back in the making. Spine completed then just need to free agent another power half forward (or pray that Martin and cuningham stay fit) and our biggest holes are covered.

Would be a good fit if gets to our pick. FYI Allies captain. Plays for Murray Bushrangers, from just North of the border.
Would be spruiking him, but doubt he lasts long enough.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

I don't think so, the talls in this draft are pretty special and the midfield talent is one of the shallowest in recent memory. This draft is a KPP heaven

Midfielder’s and Medium forwards are shallow up the top end of the draft…
Gold Coast have a great draft haul, personally we need half forwards, classy quick midfielders and a few KPD’s as well as another KPF…
Atm depending on where we finish I’d take best available either Sanders or O’Sullivan if they are still available…

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Midfielder’s and Medium forwards are shallow up the top end of the draft…
Gold Coast have a great draft haul, personally we need half forwards, classy quick midfielders and a few KPD’s as well as another KPF…
Atm depending on where we finish I’d take best available either Sanders or O’Sullivan if they are still available…

O'Sullivan yes. Sanders I wouldn't have any interest in, too similar to our other mids. Strong ball winner with limited pace and kicking ability. If I'm picking a mid its Mckercher or nobody for me and he'll be long gone before our pick.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

O'Sullivan yes. Sanders I wouldn't have any interest in, too similar to our other mids. Strong ball winner with limited pace and kicking ability. If I'm picking a mid its Mckercher or nobody for me and he'll be long gone before our pick.

Sanders
Far from slow has decent enough pace, one of the best kicks distributors and decision makers in the draft…
Contested ball winner who has a great balanced inside/outside game, great footy IQ with poise who manoeuvres & exits from stoppages creating chains or hitting up targets to teammates…
Doubt he’ll be available at our pick anyway, O’Sullivan has all the attributes of a sensational modern day KPD, which our defense/list is in desperate need of of…

All good just see his talents different to your own

 

[katmanblue]

When do we start to think about Cripps'replacement?

In the next two or three years?

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[Coona Blues]

When do we start to think about Cripps'replacement?

In the next two or three years?

On SM-F926B using BigFooty.com mobile app

We don’t specifically think about a Cripps replacement.

We progressively build our midfield. With Walsh, Cerra and Kennedy in our mix for 5-10 years,it just stays as an organic development. A variety of midfield models can work. Rozee and Butters are the frontliners of Port’s midfield with important contributions from Wines, Boak and a couple of others. Smaller hard nuts like Viney and Liberatore are fronting their teams’ engine rooms while Petracca and Bont are playing hybrid roles.

Contrary to popular opinion, we are not in great need of midfield upgrades. Hollands, Carroll and Binns potentially have a role to play in the midfield, particularly the first two. Brodie Kemp is already on our list and it is not beyond possibility that he is added to the midfield mix at some stage.

It is likely we will add a mid at each draft over the next five or so. That includes inside and outside types. We have the Camporeale boys next year, Lucas developing as advertised as the more silky outside wing type, while less vaunted Ben has focussed on adding an inside element to his game, quite successfully from all reports. A couple of years later Cody Walker comes up, currently projecting as a utility spending most of his time on ball.

With Ed and likely Dow departing at year’s end and Fisher reported to be on the move, we should be adding a midfield option this year. That could be in many forms, an outside chance Ryley Sanders lasts to our first pick on a best available basis, down to possibly adding VFL guns in the ever improving Ramshaw or Dozzi with a late/rookie pick. For mine, we look at adding another pick in the late first or early second range and look at a hybrid forward/mid like WA’s Tholstrup (likened to Zurhaar) or more dynamic small Koen Sanchez, also from WA (who I really like to be a front line Papleyesque player)

The midfield will evolve. Cripps, Walsh, Cerra, Kennedy, Hewett, Cuningham, Docherty, Hollands, Carroll and plenty of “pinch hitters” from smalls like Durdin to Silvagni who is under rated as a midfield option give us a solid combination for the medium to long term future. Some extra pace would be nice, with Binns and likely the Camporeale boys already in the mix to add that at least on the outside in the foreseeable future.