11kgm
Brownlow Medallist
- Sep 24, 2014
- 21,974
- 20,168
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Other Teams
- Man Utd
Just need to avoid when Short goes 150 hahaI literally have no idea about my back line. Need to see some campaigners play.
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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Just need to avoid when Short goes 150 hahaI literally have no idea about my back line. Need to see some campaigners play.
If he does well in this same role in the scratchies, he may be a good cash cow for a month max. Cheap enough to gamble on anywaysWas playing for your A-Team in yesterday plus taking kickins for you
Yeah I'm not married to him at all just worth keeping an eye on him, could be a good scorer then bottom out could be a non starterIf he does well in this same role in the scratchies, he may be a good cash cow for a month max. Cheap enough to gamble on anyways
Won't see Powell or Markov - a bit narrowerYeah I'm not married to him at all just worth keeping an eye on him, could be a good scorer then bottom out could be a non starter
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Looking at this there are a lot of kick ins available but like I said could be worse
PowellWon't see Powell or Markov - a bit narrower
Not to mention the elite juniors are so much better than the ones they playing against at that level.Possibly, but not necessarily. I honestly don’t get the sense much tagging goes into those junior showcase leagues when they really only exist to enable gun juniors to get noticed by draft watchers. Maybe that’s way off the mark but you certainly don’t hear much “player x has been picked by AFL team y because of the fantastic tagging jobs he did throughout the NAB league games”
Sorry to nitpick but Young went 41.8 (52.25 adjusted) year 1. Then he went 69 then 88. Good natural progression each yearIn his under 18's year as a full time mid, Daicos went at 136 Fantasy points, 2 goals and 35.8 disposals per game, across 5 games (given the season was cut short) - it's seriously f*cking nuts what he did Fantasy wise/stats wise in under age.
As much as I agree there's a ton of upside for Young, I still disagree that Daicos doesn't have as much/if not more upside. Young went at 86 in his underage year, and he's already surpassed that. I think Young is capped at 100 at most, whereas I think Daicos will have multiple 120+ seasons, and likely win a Brownlow within the next 5 years. His only threat is being tagged, but every team tried it at underage level - and failed. I suspect his tank will burn all except the most diligent taggers with a tank to match his - like a Callum Mills type.
Going at 87 in your first year, as a defender, is crazy. Only Sam Walsh has him beat in recent times with 92, but he was a full time mid basically from the get go. Young went at 41.6 in his first year and then 85 in his second year, so pretty strong comparison...but only went at 87.6 in his third. He's had 2 more seasons and he did in his third what Daicos did in his first. Young will stay as a defender at the end of this year, but Daicos will likely be pushing for uber mid status, come the next couple of years, IMO - the guy is made for Fantasy.
Re: the +6's in defence, you only need to see guys like Zerrett, Touk, Mills and Macrae, who always drift back with their elite tank, for that plus 6. I imagine Daicos will have free reign like in his underage year, and will probably be both their highest disposal winner, and highest fantasy scorer this year - even with Tom Mitchell in the team. Apparently he is completely dominating match sim, and he's only in his second year. At the very least he's easily got a 95 in him, and that would make him a Top 6 Defender based on last year. He had 7 tons last year compared to Young's four, so he already has him covered in his first year in ceiling, as well. Young was consistent, but Daicos had a 40 disposal, 3 goal game - which again is just nuts for a first year player.
Honestly, I like Young as a POD pick, but going against 45% of the comp when their underage scores are not even close to similar, is a dangerous strategy, IMO. I'm definitely down with choosing both if you can, but if there's only one choice, I know who I'm going with. Who knows with Fantasy, but underage stats do matter, when it comes to assessing just how much of a ball magnet a player is/what their Fantasy upside is - and Daicos is unparalleled when played in his natural position - the midfield.
Sorry to nitpick but Young went 41.8 (52.25 adjusted) year 1. Then he went 69 then 88. Good natural progression each year
All he needs is 4 kick ins to himself a game that's 12 points rightListed as 41.6 on Footywire, but spot on about it being adjusted which I didn't include - cheers for that. Definitely very good natural progression, and could make another jump this year, if all goes well
Shadow89 re the Daicos discussion, you’ve made an excellent case. Full points for the write up I’m going to play devil’s advocate purely as a counter-balance though, because although I’m sure he’ll be good, I don’t think the picture is quite as rosy as you’ve painted:
Huge numbers for sure, but bear in mind that his “whole season” was only 5 games. Still impressive, but a very small sample.
There’s an excellent ESPN article that compares Daicos with Will Ashcroft. One interesting point it makes that can explain why his junior numbers might need to be taken with a grain of salt:
Was he tagged at underage level? I can’t find any reference to this anywhere. Happy to re-evaluate if there’s a link.
Maybe, but then Ryan Clarke held him to 65 last year and he’s no Callum Mills. I think you can make the case he’s Collingwood’s best (or at least most damaging) player going into 2023 so the tags are definitely coming, and elite tank or not, they’re likely to affect his output from where I’m sitting.
I’m leaning more towards a 90, which gives him negligible upside priced at 87 - particularly given that a 90 average would probably see some up and down scoring. 115 one week followed by a 75 the next. Young looks more consistent to me despite not having the same ceiling.
Also worth mentioning that Collingwood’s draw is harder this year than last, and interestingly Daicos does have a tricky first 4 opponents that aren’t really conducive to going bang from the start. He has Geelong (89 last year), Port (65), Richmond (83) and Brisbane (80) for an average of 79. Different circumstances this year and most likely a different position on the ground, but still food for thought.
Young is in my team and locked away not going anywhere. Daicos is in my considerations but not in my team at present.
All he needs is 4 kick ins to himself a game that's 12 points right
Need to keep Luke Ryan away from the balls
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Possibly, but not necessarily. I honestly don’t get the sense much tagging goes into those junior showcase leagues when they really only exist to enable gun juniors to get noticed by draft watchers. Maybe that’s way off the mark but you certainly don’t hear much “player x has been picked by AFL team y because of the fantastic tagging jobs he did throughout the NAB league games”
Great stuff, thanks.
Zevon covered most things so I won’t rehash but will add 2 other quick points.
The first is junior scoring does matter, but mostly in year one and then as a predictor for peak output. Junior numbers in yr 2 should be ALMOST discounted. He got those numbers in a vastly more limited talent pool playing against peers and much lessor talent. He doesn’t get that luxury at AFL. Rowell, Anderson, Serong et al won’t age out of his games and leave him as the big dog. In fact they’ll all improve. So yes his junior numbers inform his peak prediction but not yr2 in my mind.
The last thing is the “as a defender” inferring it’s a lessor place to score for him. For every Rory Laird there are plenty of Short’s. It’s just not a given. Yes Daicos has more talent than many of those who didn’t see a bump, but many of those guys were also fully developed and didn’t pull it off.
Now having said all that, I will state he’s in my team right now. I have both he and Young plus Doc. I don’t think he’s a bad pick, far from it. I do think the confidence in him is overstated.
I’m not bothered by the amount of people who own him either. I’d be happy to bet against it because if he goes bang he’s not hard to get too. Also, half the world loves soccer, but it’s clearly rubbish. Large numbers don’t necessarily equate to the right decision
yeah i think he can only really benefit from playing mid, yes he could be undersized and bullied a bit here and there, but playing there gives him more opportunity at being involved in the play from the get and he still has the ability to use his tank to get those cheapies anywayAll solid points, but the only one I'll disagree on, is the fact that he could be a Jayden Short type of player. Daicos had barely played any half back during his juniors, was just more of a gateway into senior selection, and not where his natural game lies. He's a ball winning machine, and even in the back half, wasn't a 1 on 1 defender by any stretch.
Short was first and foremost a defender who got moved into the mids, because of a lack of midfield depth at the Tigers. Daicos is first and foremost a mid, who got moved into defence because it was his first year and they didn't want to throw him in the deep end. His natural game is midfield, so I imagine he'll thrive and win a ton of ball - and demand the one/two constantly as well, as he did in underage.
Coaches tend to be quite reactionary with who they tag so I think this is only a risk if he does something eye-catching in the pre season game. More likely to tag Brayshaw to kick the year off.Saint Kilda tag and could sit someone on him in R1
Think this will work out fine. A few players went insane playing the kick-mark game against North last year (Himmelburg springs to mind). Especially since Young can push up a bit higher and deliver inside 50; doesn’t just need to get it in defence.North are s**t ball could not be down there
He’s only played them 3 times so I don’t know if we have enough to go on yet. His first game against them was fine but his next two were concerning though.Eagles his worst fantasy team to play
Ticks in both these gamesCrows should score well see Daicos
Suns should score well
Yeah the Swans at the SCG could be really ugly for a player like him - let’s hope it’s a windy day with plenty of behinds The Geelong game is at Optus so I think that’ll be ok.Rounds 9 and 10 got 2 harder games Swans and Geelong
That's my issue with defence do you go value Daicos Young Yeo McKenna Hunt/Constable Ginbey or do you go Doch Daicos/Young Yeo McKenna Hunt/Constable GinbeyCoaches tend to be quite reactionary with who they tag so I think this is only a risk if he does something eye-catching in the pre season game. More likely to tag Brayshaw to kick the year off.
Think this will work out fine. A few players went insane playing the kick-mark game against North last year (Himmelburg springs to mind). Especially since Young can push up a bit higher and deliver inside 50; doesn’t just need to get it in defence.
He’s only played them 3 times so I don’t know if we have enough to go on yet. His first game against them was fine but his next two were concerning though.
Ticks in both these games
Yeah the Swans at the SCG could be really ugly for a player like him - let’s hope it’s a windy day with plenty of behinds The Geelong game is at Optus so I think that’ll be ok.
Think he’ll be fine. A few little queries which you’re correct to raise but nothing alarming
Yeah the bolded bit is crucial. Won’t know the correct structure until we know how many rookies there are (and their quality) and hence how many midpricers we’ll need to fit in.That's my issue with defence do you go value Daicos Young Yeo McKenna Hunt/Constable Ginbey or do you go Doch Daicos/Young Yeo McKenna Hunt/Constable Ginbey
I am hoping he tanks early and i can bring him in post bye but yeah i need footy to judge these kids off
I mean if I can get Weddle on field and Sheezel/Pou go well will look amazingYeah the bolded bit is crucial. Won’t know the correct structure until we know how many rookies there are (and their quality) and hence how many midpricers we’ll need to fit in.
Yeah I’m hoping some decent randoms come through. Rooks like Weddle and Ginbey are being relied on by a lot of teams but they’re highly priced and I don’t see stacks of scoring ability in either of them. Bit of a concern.I mean if I can get Weddle on field and Sheezel/Pou go well will look amazing
But you ever know some random could come out and go bang like Nic Martin, Hayes weren't in our sides now
I agree two lockdown defenders who could go through the midfield doesn't scream pick meYeah I’m hoping some decent randoms come through. Rooks like Weddle and Ginbey are being relied on by a lot of teams but they’re highly priced and I don’t see stacks of scoring ability in either of them. Bit of a concern.