- Jun 5, 2007
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Bit bored, so without much science, a few biases and some surprise wins and losses I give you my 2023 ladder predictor.
Not surprisingly we made it
Not surprisingly we made it
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2023 Ladder Predictor
- Thread starter allrighty
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Impressive confidence in the Cats. When you did this we were 0-3? So had us winning 15 of 20 games - basically a repeat of 2022 I suppose
Banking the 2 gimmes (as we now have) and it was 13 of 18. Win 8 of 9 in Geelong, then 5 of the other 9 at the G, Marvel or Interstate (slightly above 50% hit rate). Freo, Port, Bulldogs, Sydney, St Kilda, Richmond, Essendon, Brisbane, Collingwood for those from memory. Tough? Yes. Impossible? Only if round 1-3 form remained a thing. More consistency from here required but I think 15 is achievable.
If we can win 3 of the next 4 (Sydney home, Essendon away, Adelaide home, Richmond away) we are in an identical position to the end of round 9 last season.
Bored also. Unfortunately my game by game ended up not being as bullish on the Cats as I would have hoped. But there are a lot of 50/50 games. I hope I have been too conservative…as the result isn’t where I want it to be! Although 2 more wins and we get top 4…shows how futile ladder predictor is at this stage of the season!
Whilst you were posting I did my predictor…and posted it above…I think I was bullish on the home games but not as confident on the road. I got us to 14 wins so pretty close…but with my other predictions I unfortunately had 7 teams with 15 wins or above (some of them have 2 games against a few easy beats!)
I noticed similar. Yours is even more exaggerated than mine with a team on 14 wins missing the 8. I think I had a 13 win team missing out. There will be upsets, of course. Brisbane on the road are scarily bad. No surer thing than the Adelaide sides going through slumps and Sydney are not near the level of consistency people assume. They are gettable even on their home deck in their top 4 years.
- Jun 5, 2007
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- #7
Good replies all. I reckon we might struggle a bit more going forward with Stanley and Stengle out, others with niggles and SDK now looking like an AFL sanctioned punching bag.
Squiggle (pretty useful unbiased ladder predictor) has Geelong finishing 3rd - with only % separating Geelong, Melbourne and Sydney for 3rd/4th spots behind Collingwood + Brisbane. If we sneak into 4th our most likely QF opponent is Collingwood, same as 2022. Getting home advantage vs Brisbane would be the dream, if our % advantage holds then it would require the Cats making up one game vs them over the last 17 rounds.
Take home messages are the percentage boosters remain very useful and we are right in the top 4 race even after the troubling start.
Take home messages are the percentage boosters remain very useful and we are right in the top 4 race even after the troubling start.
I think that's a fair enough statement. I believe we'll beat Adelaide at home and the depleted Tigers. So that would have us at 6-3 with 7 games at GMHBA to come. Going 9-5 or 10-4 from there would be a realistic aim.
This is the tough one of the next 3. They have pace, a stellar (but inconsistent) ruck. A bevy of talls who can mark and confidence. I’ll be very interested to watch them tomorrow.
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I rate them and they now have a good coach. If we are serious about finals and competing for a flag we need to take a quality scalp. We have only beaten the two worst sides and a very good outing against Sydney which I don’t think tells us a lot just yet.
We need a quality side at the MCG to turn convincingly show we are serious in 2023.
10-4 would put us on track for top 4. You generally need 15-16 wins for top four historically?
I don’t think it’s as big a deal as it used to be with the pre finals bye missing top four. It can be done a lot easier now than before.
I am looking for a convincing win against a top side in form and I think essendon at the G is the scalp we need to really show we are a top side. To this point I don’t think we have necessarily show that in 2023. We have lost to the only two top 8 sides we have played so far.
- Jun 5, 2007
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Like I said in the OP I got to 15 wins with dropping a few that were very much 50/50. We are on track now I think to have a crack.
15 wins and a strong % will get it done in a scrambly pack year where 3rd-6th is not separated by much. 16 wins if the top 4 create some separation. I think we are going to be in the former but could be wrong. A side like Sydney dropping off a bit or at least struggling through their injuries will benefit us.
Last season we thrashed a terrible Essendon, got towelled up vs Sydney, pulled off a late miracle win vs Collingwood, edged out Brisbane at home, lost to a very bad Hawthorn and thumped a very bad North Melbourne by the end of round 6. I see our form line to start this season matching that and expect it to keep improving. It wasn't ideal given our preparation to get the better sides in the first couple of weeks. If we faced Carlton and Collingwood in round 5 and 6 perhaps we would be 5-1 right now.
Hawthorn have been competitive the last 4 weeks except for against us. I believe we could've truly put West Coast to the sword but saved ourselves for the Sydney game when the match was done. And Sydney even with their outs were expected to be competitive. I absolutely took something out of each game. Essendon is more of a litmus test but I've never favoured the view that games should be disregarded completely.
For once the Footy God's seem to have favoured us - Bombers coming off a huge Anzac Day game with a 5 day break should give us an edge ?
With 23 games, I think we will need 16 wins.
13 - 4 from here is manageable I reckon.
13 - 4 from here is manageable I reckon.
I am not completely disregarding a game? I am just not taking from the wins we have had so far that we are playing to a premiership contending standard. I want to see a win Vs a top four contender to make the call myself we are genuine in 2023. I don’t think we have shown that yet this season and it’s obviously something at some point you have to do. You can’t just say “ oh well we won it last year therefore we must be a contender”. This week will give us huge perspective where we are at in comparison to the top sides at present.
This has happened a few times with you, I merely offer my own slightly different perspective and you seem to take it as an attack. I'm not attempting to be confrontational or dismissing your view.
The way the top 4 is shaping up we have only played one of them for sure - Collingwood - and round 1 games mean almost nothing. So to say the Carlton and Collingwood games were the only markers and the rest don't tell us anything seems a bit odd. Essendon will likely be the same as Sydney and Carlton - middle of the pack. They're not a bigger test than Carlton, Adelaide, Bulldogs, Port type teams right now. If we are talking genuine top 4 contenders, we may need to wait for Melbourne (home), Brisbane (away), Collingwood (away) and St Kilda (away) until we get any indication. Round 14, 19, 22 and 23 are when those arrive.
What made you think I felt attacked? I was just replying to your post and in particular the part insinuating I said we took nothing away from those wins. I just feel we need to take a big scalp to announce ourselves, I am not sold on Sydney in 2023 and I rate what essendon has done so far, I see them being a top 4 or bottom half of the 8 team. It is hard to predict tho as some teams will eb and flow much like last years ladder did. It will be hard to actually predict who comes where end of the day given its evenness. I don’t think besides collingwood I can really say with much certainty who will be top four atm, although I do rate st kilda collingwood and eswendon off form so far.
I am a little on the fence about us at the moment, can see it going either way depending how we turn up and also luck with injury. There seems to be two versions of geelong so far this season without alot of conviction just yet of our belonging in the food chain.
When the midfield has been beaten it’s been absolutely smashed in every way… when it’s been on song it’s really turned it on… it’s tricky to get a gauge. We will learn alot soon.
catstorm
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What's funny is at the end of this round Geelong will have the best attack and the second best defense and be in 9th place.
You maintain those kind of metrics for the entire season and you are without a doubt the premiership favorites going into finals.
You maintain those kind of metrics for the entire season and you are without a doubt the premiership favorites going into finals.
- Jun 5, 2007
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- #22
Agree I noticed that too. Good metrics aren't the be all and end all but they are certainly good pointers to form and favouritism
fpm84
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Welp, we're the best again!
To think 15 days ago at half time people were pencilling us in for bottom 4, season over, plan your trips for September.
We just played a team that were in one of the "good" quandrants and have 2 more to come, but there will be excuses if we beat either.
We just played a team that were in one of the "good" quandrants and have 2 more to come, but there will be excuses if we beat either.
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