AFL 2024 AFL Futures

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Bayley Fritsch is about $70 in the outright Coleman Medal market at some sportsbooks.


He is $51 at Sportsbet to get Top 3 in the Coleman. He has finished 2nd and 5th (in his better years) in the total goal tally by end of season. I was expecting odds in the low 20's for him to be in The Top 3. Feel like the $51 on Top 3 , is a better bet than Coleman outright. If betting on outright, id like at least triple figures but one probably doesnt get that with the Australian sportsbooks. Fritsch will mainly park himself in the forward 50 as he has in past seasons.

Charlie Curnow, Walker and Larkey all got to play the Eagles twice last season where they kicked large tallies. The first two dont get the Eagles twice this season. Carlton has a harder draw in 2024 and I dont think C Curnow gets easy goals and shares more goals with McKay this season. Also not sold on some of the more injury prone players: J Cameron, Hawkins, Tom Lynch, Peter Wright...

Im also not keen on : Amiss (Dockers are a bit 1 dimensional going forward with him as their target), Max King (Saints slow defensive style), Ben King (Gold Coast having to play majority of their games at HBS where it gets dewy in most of their night games)

Small nibble on :

Top 3 Coleman Medal- Fritsch
Melbourne to win the Flag

Odds: $571

Fritsch doing well has correlation with Dees doing well , so a nibble on that for a bit of interest.
 
NYRB said:
Bayley Fritsch is about $70 in the outright Coleman Medal market at some sportsbooks.


He is $51 at Sportsbet to get Top 3 in the Coleman. He has finished 2nd and 5th (in his better years) in the total goal tally by end of season. I was expecting odds in the low 20's for him to be in The Top 3. Feel like the $51 on Top 3 , is a better bet than Coleman outright. If betting on outright, id like at least triple figures but one probably doesnt get that with the Australian sportsbooks. Fritsch will mainly park himself in the forward 50 as he has in past seasons.

Charlie Curnow, Walker and Larkey all got to play the Eagles twice last season where they kicked large tallies. The first two dont get the Eagles twice this season. Carlton has a harder draw in 2024 and I dont think C Curnow gets easy goals and shares more goals with McKay this season. Also not sold on some of the more injury prone players: J Cameron, Hawkins, Tom Lynch, Peter Wright...

Im also not keen on : Amiss (Dockers are a bit 1 dimensional going forward with him as their target), Max King (Saints slow defensive style), Ben King (Gold Coast having to play majority of their games at HBS where it gets dewy in most of their night games)

Small nibble on :

Top 3 Coleman Medal- Fritsch
Melbourne to win the Flag

Odds: $571

Fritsch doing well has correlation with Dees doing well , so a nibble on that for a bit of interest.
Click to expand...
I like the angle on the Fritsch Top 3 best a lot. I have minor reservations that he will have to compete more with Van Rooyen as he develops and McAdam (if he can get on the park) who plays a similar role.

Personally I would ditch the Melbourne Flag aspect of the bet. Rarely is the Coleman medal won by the Premiership winning full forward. Only happened twice in the last 20 years. Take the overs on the solo bet.
 
you just have to bet ****ing charlie curnow don't you he is a ****ing monster
 

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Would back top 8 for Dees instead although not sure that is even allowed.
I thought Fritsch and the Kings were both big in that market too
 
BuddysBuddy23 said:
TAB have a promo for Coll/Bris/GWS all to finish top 6, $4.50. Max $50 bet. Good bet to make? GWS the question mark out of the 3…
Click to expand...
These always look a big better than they are as they are negatively correlated, each team who makes the top 6 removes 1 spot for the others.

no top 6 markets around but using Betfair
a multi of these for
top 4 ~$10
top 8 ~2.10
so top 6 is somewhere in between this.

I make it $4.80 for the top 6

Probably better ways to spend $50 that has a 7 month wait and no hedging possibilities
 
Are there any bookies that are accepting multi's in top 8/4 season bets? I can't seem find any, but had a bunch of these on TAB last year
 

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I posted the AFL Season Handicap 3 weeks ago, and there has been some price changes after warm ups and all with still 1 more pre-season game to go. Im not really understanding the drift on the Demons at +8.5 handicap, but them shortening in Premiership outright. At $34.00 I am having a play on them to cover their line. For me its a system play at that price. Had that been the same price as 3 weeks ago, i would have probably given it a miss. My initial season predictions didnt have the Dees covering but had them thereabouts .

For team odds that havent changed compared to 3 weeks ago that have changed none of these teams has greatly impressed so far. (probably bar Adelaide).


Are there any handicaps others fancy in here?

Screenshot 2024-03-03 094825.png
 
10U - Port O13.5 @ $1.87.

Craaazy odds.

Just put 5K down on it. No way they are a 4 win worse team.

Young list who addressed their biggest deficiency in the off-season by securing two key-defenders, and trended upwards big-time from 2022 to last year. Wouldn't be surprised if they finish 1st.

Also did a parlay of:

GC U11.5 - Don't win 3 more games this year
Haw U8.5 - Don't win 2 more games this year
WC U4.5 - Don't win 2 more games this year
NM O5.5 - Win 3 more games
Geel O11.5 - Win 2 more games
WB O11.5 - Win same games again
Port O13.5

For $75 odds.

Also reckon Bris & Coll O14.5 is value at PB.

No team has made top 4 with less than 15 wins other than GWS in 2017 (14 wins and 2 draws) for like 15 years, and with an extra game it makes it even more likely it won't happen again.

The O14.5 for Bris and Coll is a much safer bet than top 4 for both those teams, and the odds are better too; in the case of Collingwood $1.87 vs $1.60.
 
Last edited:
Bucking Bronco said:
10U - Port O13.5 @ $1.87.

Craaazy odds.

Just put 5K down on it. No way they are a 4 win worse team.

Young list who addressed their biggest deficiency in the off-season by securing two key-defenders, and trended upwards big-time from 2022 to last year. Wouldn't be surprised if they finish 1st.

Also did a parlay of:

GC U11.5 - Don't win 3 more games this year
Haw U11.5 - Don't win 3 more games this year
WC U4.5 - Don't win 2 more games this year
NM O5.5 - Win 3 more games
Geel O11.5 - Win 2 more games
WB O11.5 - Win same games again
Port O13.5

For $75 odds.

Also reckon Bris & Coll O14.5 is value at PB.

No team has made top 4 with less than 15 wins other than GWS in 2017 (14 wins and 2 draws) for like 15 years, and with an extra game it makes it even more likely it won't happen again.

The O14.5 for Bris and Coll is a much safer bet than top 4 for both those teams, and the odds are better too; in the case of Collingwood $1.87 vs $1.60.
Click to expand...
According to Squiggle Port are at 13 wins predicted
 
Bucking Bronco said:
10U - Port O13.5 @ $1.87.

Craaazy odds.

Just put 5K down on it. No way they are a 4 win worse team.

Young list who addressed their biggest deficiency in the off-season by securing two key-defenders, and trended upwards big-time from 2022 to last year. Wouldn't be surprised if they finish 1st.

Also did a parlay of:

GC U11.5 - Don't win 3 more games this year
Haw U11.5 - Don't win 3 more games this year
WC U4.5 - Don't win 2 more games this year
NM O5.5 - Win 3 more games
Geel O11.5 - Win 2 more games
WB O11.5 - Win same games again
Port O13.5

For $75 odds.

Also reckon Bris & Coll O14.5 is value at PB.

No team has made top 4 with less than 15 wins other than GWS in 2017 (14 wins and 2 draws) for like 15 years, and with an extra game it makes it even more likely it won't happen again.

The O14.5 for Bris and Coll is a much safer bet than top 4 for both those teams, and the odds are better too; in the case of Collingwood $1.87 vs $1.60.
Click to expand...

They addressed their biggest deficiency by recruiting the reverse Coleman winner and a guy who has played 50% of games over the last 2 years learning a new position?

Don't get me wrong, they will likely get above 13.5 with the natural improvement of their brilliant young midfield but BZT and Esava arent the reason they will cover that line.
 
NYRB said:
I posted the AFL Season Handicap 3 weeks ago, and there has been some price changes after warm ups and all with still 1 more pre-season game to go. Im not really understanding the drift on the Demons at +8.5 handicap, but them shortening in Premiership outright. At $34.00 I am having a play on them to cover their line. For me its a system play at that price. Had that been the same price as 3 weeks ago, i would have probably given it a miss. My initial season predictions didnt have the Dees covering but had them thereabouts .

For team odds that havent changed compared to 3 weeks ago that have changed none of these teams has greatly impressed so far. (probably bar Adelaide).


Are there any handicaps others fancy in here?

View attachment 1918319
Click to expand...
This assumes the opening $17 was near enough to what they should be priced no?

I have Dees the 4th best side and I had them winning this 2% of the time.

Adelaide, Fremantle, Geelong & North were only 4 who were shorter than opening price for me.
 
Bucking Bronco said:
10U - Port O13.5 @ $1.87.


GC U11.5 - Don't win 3 more games this year
Haw U11.5 - Don't win 3 more games this year
WC U4.5 - Don't win 2 more games this year
NM O5.5 - Win 3 more games
Geel O11.5 - Win 2 more games
WB O11.5 - Win same games again
Port O13.5

For $75 odds.
Click to expand...
who has allowed season win multis?

I make this $31, think NM your most tricky one.
first 3 look extremely safe.
 
Eagles 2.50 wooden spoon betright.. this is around 2.20-2.30 most places.. Can't see them being as competitive as North season long... Yeo will break down at some point too losing even more competitive edge from a thin midfield
 
Gulden Brownlow 15.50 (betfair)... has had his breakout season now where Umpires recognise him lots... doesn't really get tagged it seems either as he's kind of wing then floating into the mid...

Touk Miller 40-1 (betfair)... think Anderson may cop more attention this year and Miller no injury niggles this year.. think he will return to his best where he nearly won it in 2022.
 
One more... if he plays full season but I am sure I have missed the good odds.. Wardlaw most tackles 34.00 tab.... anyone else presenting value here guys? would like a quote on Berry from Adelaide I think he becomes a permanent fixture this season.... other than that off top of my head Atkins looks solid as one of the favourites at 11.00.. he had 5 in only 38 % game time vs essendon
 
demon_fanatic said:
Gulden Brownlow 15.50 (betfair)... has had his breakout season now where Umpires recognise him lots... doesn't really get tagged it seems either as he's kind of wing then floating into the mid...

Touk Miller 40-1 (betfair)... think Anderson may cop more attention this year and Miller no injury niggles this year.. think he will return to his best where he nearly won it in 2022.
Click to expand...
1709520941050.png $15 on offer at a few bookies would work out better than betfair 15.5 (once you account for commission?)
 

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