AFL 2024 AFL Futures

[NYRB]

This assumes the opening $17 was near enough to what they should be priced no?

I have Dees the 4th best side and I had them winning this 2% of the time.

Adelaide, Fremantle, Geelong & North were only 4 who were shorter than opening price for me.

I have the Dees equal 3rd best based on that handicap. But I have them 3 games behind the winner.

GC U11.5 - Don't win 3 more games this year
Haw U11.5 - Don't win 3 more games this year
WC U4.5 - Don't win 2 more games this year
NM O5.5 - Win 3 more games
Geel O11.5 - Win 2 more games
WB O11.5 - Win same games again
Port O13.5

I like 4 of those selections: Hawks Under 11.5 Wins, GC U 11.5 Wins, NM O 5.5 Wins, Port O 13.5 Wins. Although Sportsbet line for Hawks U/O is 8.5 wins, so im not surely where your getting 11.5 from

Port have one of the supposedly easier draws in 2024 in the earlier rounds. 6 of their first 8 games in Adelaide. Have double ups against Freo and Richmond , I have pencilled them in for 4 wins out of 4 games there. But 14-15 wins seems about right for them. Im starting to lean on the over for them.

See Sydney clearing the Over 12.5 wins, they have winnable games away : Adelaide, West Coast, Richmond, Hawthorn. They also happen to be their double up games for 3 of those 4 in 2024. Their home ground at SCG is equivalent to what Geelong has as home ground.

With Jordan Ridley looking likely to miss beginning of the season , Ive had a switch on Bombers to go the under after initially leaning on them on the overs in the season. Ridley as one forumite on another forum mentioned might be their most important player. I struggle to see them reaching 12 wins now. Their back half of 2nd half in 2023 was pretty bad. Remember Eagles giving them a close shave by 1 pt and Giants smashing them by nearly a ton. Not sure all these new players improve them either: Gresham, Todd Goldstein, Xavier Duursma, Ben McKay.

Freo will be 1 bit 1 dimensional going forward. And their players leaving in 2024 are better than their players coming in.

Done multi:

Hawks U8.5 Wins
GC U 11.5 wins
North O 5.5 Wins
Freo U 9.5 Wins
Essendon U 11.5 Wins
Sydney O 12.5 Wins

Odds: $36.46 (can get 42.17 Boosted at Sportsbet)

 

[demon_fanatic]

port over 13.5 is one of the bets of the season... regular season specialists and teams still improving I feel... got injuries ran outta steam last year but will be right there again this season. should win 15-16 quite comfortably

 

[demon_fanatic]

View attachment 1919245$15 on offer at a few bookies would work out better than betfair 15.5 (once you account for commission?)

yeh true I am only betting small so not much commission will try get 16/16.5 closer to game time.. dees don't tag a lot so I feel he will vote win or lose.... Like Darcy Wilson Saints 34.00 rising star at betright.. looked great in praccy and is into 23 tab and 25 betfair... Ryley Sanders is my top pick I feel if him and Reids form is close they will go with the guy holding down a midfield spot in a top 8 team providing the dogs perform well... not sold on Mckercher/Duursma being standouts think they will have ok form but nowhere near rising star form, wardlaw is just too short now at 4.50 given his durability concerns

 

[NonPhixion]

SB have a BYO market.
Tom Green

12

Tom Green

Age

23

Ht

192cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

3star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

5star

Top 5 BL, Toby Greene

4

Toby Greene

Age

31

Ht

182cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.7

5star

K

12.5

5star

HB

10.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

3.0

5star

G

1.2

4star

D

17.5

4star

K

9.5

4star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.8

4star

T

1.0

2star

G

2.3

5star

D

26.6

5star

K

12.4

5star

HB

14.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

3.6

5star

G

0.0

1star

Top 5 coleman & GWS finish top 5 on the ladder $26 looks good

 

[sassy foods]

I know it’s a midfielder’s medal, but there is no way Max Gawn

11

Max Gawn

Age

33

Ht

209cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.4

3star

HB

6.7

4star

CL

2.8

4star

HO

35.3

5star

D

18.5

4star

K

11.5

4star

HB

7.0

4star

CL

3.5

4star

HO

29.2

5star

D

8.4

3star

K

3.6

2star

HB

4.8

4star

CL

1.0

3star

HO

15.6

5star

is 101 on Brownlow medal night. Sole ruck, in rare form, kicking a few snags and will be a massive part of any wins. 101 on PB and TAB, 51 at SB.

 

[dontlimitme]

I know it’s a midfielder’s medal, but there is no way Max Gawn is 101 on Brownlow medal night. Sole ruck, in rare form and wants to lead a probe a point. 101 on PB and TAB, 51 at SB.

it's a midfielders medal

 

[Jugada]

I know it’s a midfielder’s medal, but there is no way Max Gawn is 101 on Brownlow medal night. Sole ruck, in rare form, kicking a few snags and will be a massive part of any wins. 101 on PB and TAB, 51 at SB.

A 32yo ruck who started longer odds than that last year?

Would happily bet good money that he is at least triple figures in Brownlow night

 

[Jcpdragonx]

Sanders been smashed into $4. Only injury is stopping him.

 

[dontlimitme]

Sanders been smashed into $4. Only injury is stopping him.

wardlaw will stop him

 

[NYRB]

SB have a BYO market.
Tom Green Top 5 BL, Toby Greene Top 5 coleman & GWS finish top 5 on the ladder $26 looks good

That’s my one! Thought the odds they gave were decent

I like the bet but its been crunched into $21 now.


Id have Green about a $3 chance for top 5 for BL, Greene a $2.60 ish price for top 5 coleman and I feel like the Giants might be the slider this year about a $3 chance for top 4. (Sportsbet have Giants a $2 shot for top 4 which seems a bit short)

 

[Jcpdragonx]

wardlaw will stop him

too injury prone/not big enough tank.

the 2 biggest threats imo are Reid (low tank) or Darcy if he takes Lobbs spot.

 

[Bucking Bronco]

who has allowed season win multis?

I make this $31, think NM your most tricky one.
first 3 look extremely safe.

TAB.

Hawthorn U8.5 is actually to not win 2 more games, not 3 - made a mistake there.

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Don't know why tf I listed Haw U11.5.

It was U8.5 .

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Also, I realised after I posted Port O13.5 that I actually read the data I was going off wrong, and there is no real edge from what I am working off.

Managed to cash out 1.5K, but still got 3.5K that I can't get off lol.

Oh well, my gut tells me that they are another Collingwood from last year that got lined ridiculously at 11.5 and ended up winning 18 games, and winning the premiership.

 

[Bucking Bronco]

They addressed their biggest deficiency by recruiting the reverse Coleman winner and a guy who has played 50% of games over the last 2 years learning a new position?

Don't get me wrong, they will likely get above 13.5 with the natural improvement of their brilliant young midfield but BZT and Esava arent the reason they will cover that line.

Anything that means Trent McKenzie doesn't play as a key-defender anymore is surely worth at least 2 goals a game.

 

[sohohoho]

Anything that means Trent McKenzie doesn't play as a key-defender anymore is surely worth at least 2 goals a game.

gap from 1st to 10th is probably 2 goals, not sure its adding too much but it also doesn't need to add that much, they won 17 games last year, despite being hopeless in front of goal.

Burton should be good for disposals early doors as he like McKenzie doesn't need to play tall, not sure McKenzie is best 22 now.

 

[demon_fanatic]

too injury prone/not big enough tank.

the 2 biggest threats imo are Reid (low tank) or Darcy if he takes Lobbs spot.

wilson from saints? smashed all of pre season and even pre draft was a lot of buzz when saints took him was a great get

 

[ash_1050]

I know it’s a midfielder’s medal, but there is no way Max Gawn is 101 on Brownlow medal night. Sole ruck, in rare form, kicking a few snags and will be a massive part of any wins. 101 on PB and TAB, 51 at SB.

It's the Brownlow medal not the Scott Wynd medal. I'd want 1001 odds.

 

[Jcpdragonx]

wilson from saints? smashed all of pre season and even pre draft was a lot of buzz when saints took him was a great get

Nah, a gun but cant put up Sanders numbers. More of an outside player.

 

[MRCB12]

Bris 14+ wins
Coll 14+ wins
North 6+ wins
WCE 4 or less wins
Frem 10+ wins
Geel 12+ wins
Port 14+ wins
WBD 12+ wins

$50 @ 65

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Bris 14+ wins
Coll 14+ wins
North 6+ wins
WCE 4 or less wins
Frem 10+ wins
Geel 12+ wins
Port 14+ wins
WBD 12+ wins

$50 @ 65

What book?

 

[Jugada]

Without doing any sort of research I would have to imagine having a multi of 7 teams to go over their win line is -ev in the same sort of way that putting multiple teams to finish top 8 in a multi is -ev becuse of reverse correlation

 

[sohohoho]

Without doing any sort of research I would have to imagine having a multi of 7 teams to go over their win line is -ev in the same sort of way that putting multiple teams to finish top 8 in a multi is -ev becuse of reverse correlation

ye but could also work the other way, assuming you put some unders in (only 1 unders in the above)


7 legs prob a bit much but can still check it off if run sims

 

[NYRB]

Without doing any sort of research I would have to imagine having a multi of 7 teams to go over their win line is -ev in the same sort of way that putting multiple teams to finish top 8 in a multi is -ev becuse of reverse correlation

I think you have to look at the whole fixture , thats right all 207 games pencilling in where teams might drop games, and where a surprise may occur than go from there.

The way TAB have got their multi odds calcualted is its pretty much multiplier odds by odds

eg Brisbane 14+ @ 1.32, Collingwood 14+ @ 1.32, North Melbourne 6+ @ 1.95, Geelong 12+ @ 1.87, Port 14+ @ 1.75, Bulldogs 12+ @ 1.75, WCE 5+ @ 1.70


1.32 x 1.32 x 1.95 x 1.87 x 1.75 x 1.75 x 1.70= 35.34

I have Collingwood on 14 wins floor and for some that would be good enough to include in an accumulator even at $1.32.

Saw the Geelong line at U/O 11.5 wins and Bulldogs at U/O 11.5 wins. Both teams get to play each other twice this season as well. I have them splitting 1-1.


Geelongs fixtures away are considerably harder: Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, Collingwood, Gold Coast (up in NT), Melbourne, North (In Tasmania early in the season), Sydney.

Western Bulldogs is probably the better bet to go 12+ wins, than Geelong 12+ wins for me. I could see a world where Bulldogs beat Cats 2-0 this season as well, which could really affect the difference between the two sides.

 

[Suncraze]

Pies/GWS/Bris Top 6 $4.50
TAB special