AFL 2024 AFL Futures

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Wasn't sure where to put this post, so thought I'd just start a new thread for discussing early bets for the 2024 AFL season.

With all of the carry on from the last few days with Clayton Oliver

13

Clayton Oliver

Age

27

Ht

189cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.8

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

18.4

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

6.3

5star

CL

6.3

5star

D

25.1

5star

K

11.1

4star

HB

14.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

5.6

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

19.2

5star

K

4.6

2star

HB

14.6

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

4.4

5star

CL

3.8

5star

and a potential trade out of the Dees, then news that he has basically been given an ultimatum by the club to shape up or ship out, I'm jumping on early for Clayton to win the Brownlow next year.
Generally polls well and ticks all the boxes for previous winners, by ranking top 10 in a lot of the grunt work categories that the umps tend to notice: contested possessions, clearances, ground ball gets and tackles.
The only thing I think that's been stopping him has been not hitting the scoreboard enough. If he can get a goal a game, then he's almost a lock IMO. Cripps being in a similar boat previously. Similar players who always feature heavily in the aforementioned stats and always polled well in the Brownlow. Cripps has a career year in goals (20 from 21 games) and gets his first Brownlow.

Anyone else got any thoughts on some good early bets for next season?

 

[pendlebury_10]

Wasn't sure where to put this post, so thought I'd just start a new thread for discussing early bets for the 2024 AFL season.

With all of the carry on from the last few days with Clayton Oliver and a potential trade out of the Dees, then news that he has basically been given an ultimatum by the club to shape up or ship out, I'm jumping on early for Clayton to win the Brownlow next year.
Generally polls well and ticks all the boxes for previous winners, by ranking top 10 in a lot of the grunt work categories that the umps tend to notice: contested possessions, clearances, ground ball gets and tackles.
The only thing I think that's been stopping him has been not hitting the scoreboard enough. If he can get a goal a game, then he's almost a lock IMO. Cripps being in a similar boat previously. Similar players who always feature heavily in the aforementioned stats and always polled well in the Brownlow. Cripps has a career year in goals (20 from 21 games) and gets his first Brownlow.

Anyone else got any thoughts on some good early bets for next season?

I would be more inclined to back Petracca, who would no longer have to share votes with Clarry.

Oliver would still have to contend with Dawson and Laird.

 

[burge13]

We're such degenerates the next seasons betting threads start earlier and earlier. Not far off starting the 2025 thread!

It's 6 months away, breathe, bet on something else. Footy can wait!

 

[NYRB]

Wasn't sure where to put this post, so thought I'd just start a new thread for discussing early bets for the 2024 AFL season.

With all of the carry on from the last few days with Clayton Oliver and a potential trade out of the Dees, then news that he has basically been given an ultimatum by the club to shape up or ship out, I'm jumping on early for Clayton to win the Brownlow next year.
Generally polls well and ticks all the boxes for previous winners, by ranking top 10 in a lot of the grunt work categories that the umps tend to notice: contested possessions, clearances, ground ball gets and tackles.
The only thing I think that's been stopping him has been not hitting the scoreboard enough. If he can get a goal a game, then he's almost a lock IMO. Cripps being in a similar boat previously. Similar players who always feature heavily in the aforementioned stats and always polled well in the Brownlow. Cripps has a career year in goals (20 from 21 games) and gets his first Brownlow.

Anyone else got any thoughts on some good early bets for next season?

I reckon the Crows if rumoured to be true get Oliver, have to be a top 3 contender for the flag next year.

Crows Flag x Oliver Brownlow is paying $300 as mentioned by someone on the Adelaide Crows thread yesterday isnt the worse sprinkle in the world.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

I would be more inclined to back Petracca, who would no longer have to share votes with Clarry.

Oliver would still have to contend with Dawson and Laird.

Sorry, my post was based on the assumption that he stays, but has had a red hot rocket put up his proverbial.

That whole 'player x has to contend with player y stealing votes' argument doesn't usually hold true. Petracca had to deal with Oliver and Viney, but still finished high. Most winners have had to deal with other strong performing teammates.

Just read another report that Oliver is keen to accept the challenge and meet the standards requested. Reckon he could have a big year.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

We're such degenerates the next seasons betting threads start earlier and earlier. Not far off starting the 2025 thread!

It's 6 months away, breathe, bet on something else. Footy can wait!

No harm in looking at some futures. Can get some juicy odds.

 

[dontlimitme]

Cripps n Blue Bloods great name ha

 

[HTPunter]

Flag will be going to NSW or QLD - Swans, Giants or Lions

 

[demon_fanatic]

Newcombe Brownlow if Hawks can Improve enough, might be a year too early

 

[FadingTheFave]

Didn’t think Oliver polled well at all, especially for someone who was close to fave before injury

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Didn’t think Oliver polled well at all, especially for someone who was close to fave before injury

Not this year, but usually does. He had a strange year, only playing 15 games, but only 13 of those were during the home and away season. Polled all of his votes before round 8, then was out from round 11 to round 21, then came back for the last 3 rounds.
Seems Viney got the votes he would normally get, as Viney doesn't usually poll well.

I think Oliver with a rocket up his bum, and the team desperate to make amends for 2 years of straight sets, will have a point to prove.

 

[sohohoho]

Didn’t think Oliver polled well at all, especially for someone who was close to fave before injury

Was strange, everyone assumed Trac would do well with him out the team but it was the opposite, Trac overpolled early while Oliver went missing, while Viney took them all late.
Viney does fit profile of a good poller and with no stats available anymore it probably helps him more too as most his disposals are right next to them.

Best to jump on one of the Dees during the year though than pre season imo, its just so hard to win it when multiple players with 20+ polling potential

 

[Atavistic]

There's a rising star market up at SB already.

Not sure where the value lies. Sanders and Duursma @ 15 maybe?

 

[sohohoho]

There's a rising star market up at SB already.

Not sure where the value lies. Sanders and Duursma @ 15 maybe?

Not going to pretend to be some expert on these first year players but Harley is surely unders.
WCE are going to be as bad as 2023 and he is going to struggle to have a huge impact you would think.

 

[bulletride]

There's a rising star market up at SB already.

Not sure where the value lies. Sanders and Duursma @ 15 maybe?

Sheldrick @ 34s looks decent, was getting good CBA numbers after finally breaking into the Swans midfield. As a third year player next year should be playing a big role there compared to some of the first year options.

 

[burge13]

Sheldrick @ 34s looks decent, was getting good CBA numbers after finally breaking into the Swans midfield. As a third year player next year should be playing a big role there compared to some of the first year options.

How is a 3rd year player even eligible?

 

[sohohoho]

How is a 3rd year player even eligible?

A player must be under 21 years of age (1st January 2024) and played 10 or fewer games before the 2024 Toyota AFL Premiership Season.

Sheldrick 20 & 9 games, these types would need to be outstanding to win it

 

[burge13]

A player must be under 21 years of age (1st January 2024) and played 10 or fewer games before the 2024 Toyota AFL Premiership Season.

Sheldrick 20 & 9 games, these types would need to be outstanding to win it

He'll be eligible but no way media vote for him unanimously given 3 years in the system

Shouldn't be eligible either. 3 preseasons and FT training at AFL level!

 

[sohohoho]

He'll be eligible but no way media vote for him unanimously given 3 years in the system

Shouldn't be eligible either. 3 preseasons and FT training at AFL level!

agree, even 2nd year guys who have played just under 10 games are marked harsher.

 

[Jcpdragonx]

RS is hard to pick

Sheldrick was $51 on opening but into $18 now. I dont trust Horse to use him properly anyway but was worth a nibble.

Not touching Reid at that price, needs to build his tank. Hamstring awareness on week 1 of preseason is never a good sign either.

Had a nip at Sanders, might play HF but he is a gun and is much more built than McKertcher.

Wardlaw is too short given the amount of Hammys he's had but I suspect he wins if fully fit, no one will get the mid time he does (unless horse comes to his senses with Sheldrick).

 

[HTPunter]

He'll be eligible but no way media vote for him unanimously given 3 years in the system

Shouldn't be eligible either. 3 preseasons and FT training at AFL level!

No, the media will if he’s good enough.

he fits the rules. He’s eligible. That’s the rules.

How is a guy coming into his 3rd year who doesn’t yet have a spot or a profile not able to be a “rising star”.?

It’s not best first year, or best rookie. It’s “rising star”.

 

[burge13]

No, the media will if he’s good enough.

he fits the rules. He’s eligible. That’s the rules.

How is a guy coming into his 3rd year who doesn’t yet have a spot or a profile not able to be a “rising star”.?

It’s not best first year, or best rookie. It’s “rising star”.

3 years in system vs 1. Sure he's eligible but it's dumb imo

When was the last 3rd year winner of the award? if any?

 

[sohohoho]

3 years in system vs 1. Sure he's eligible but it's dumb imo

When was the last 3rd year winner of the award? if any?

no one has won it having played in 3 different seasons, been a few win it in their 3rd but they were injured and didn't play one.

 

[sohohoho]

No, the media will if he’s good enough.

he fits the rules. He’s eligible. That’s the rules.

How is a guy coming into his 3rd year who doesn’t yet have a spot or a profile not able to be a “rising star”.?

It’s not best first year, or best rookie. It’s “rising star”.

of course he can win it, but he has to be so much better than 1st year players, same goes for 2nd year players who have already played.
If two players have similar output but one is 20 and the other is 18 then voters are picking the 18 year old.

 

[superfraser]

no one has won it having played in 3 different seasons, been a few win it in their 3rd but they were injured and didn't play one.

Daniel Talia is the only player to win it in his 3rd season, 2012. (From Jeremy Cameron, Mitch Wallis, Adam Treloar) **Interestingly, GC Suns entered the competition in 2011 and GWS Giants entered in 2012. Both teams monopolized young talent in their respective drafts, but reasonably, changed the landscape for first-year players. Increased opportunity, decreased support, increased competition.

In 2012, GWS had EIGHT players get Rising Star nominations, which is an absolute aberration.

Winners in their second season are: Luke Jackson (2021), Jesse Hogan (2015), Daniel Hanneberry (2010), Danyle Pearce (2006), Jared Rivers (2004), Sam Mitchell (2003), Nick Reiwoldt (2002), Byron Pickett (1998) since 1997. Earlier than '97 used a different system to award the winner.

That's 8 first year players in the last 10 years, (80%) compared to 10 first year players across the first 17 years (58%) (from '97).