AFL 2024 AFL Futures

[mattwa]

Brisbane to make the 8 at 2.10 seems like money for jam. Have a really good run home. Also paying 7 bucks for the top 4 and it's definitely doable

This looking really good now

 

[mookieb]

That's a whole lot of excuses.

"Dealing with injuries"... Collingwood have been dealing with injuries recently too, but apparently it only counts if it's Brisbane?

"External things" - they all said that there was no truth to it, and it had no baring on their performance. Sam Wicks had sex with someone's girlfriend and Sydney were 13-1.

In form in what world? They are 2-4 at the line over their last 6 and have only beaten 1 team inside the top 8 over this stretch. In fact it's the only top 8 team they've beaten all year, and there's no guarantee that they (Port) are even a top 8 team anyway.

I respect Soho, but honestly Brisbane are not good, and are the 2024 honeypot for squares.

They will be fraud checked comprehensively by Sydney next week, and unfortunately are only 50/ 50 to make finals.

I have no doubt the Vegas trip would have impacted the Lions - they started terribly and Cameron (his missus apparently saw the photos) has been off the entire year.

They currently have pretty much a full squad with Ashcroft back and are 8W 1D and 1L but geez it's not anything to write home about. Barely beating weaker teams and struggling to cover the line in most games. Good opportunity vs the Swans to make a statement but more than likely to be found out.

 

[GROTTO]

This looking really good now

Well done, astute punting.

The Lions after their R11 loss to the Hawks, was $2.75 to make the 8 and $23 to win the flag.

Today they are now $1.12 to make the 8 and $7 to win the flag.

 

[freo_leo29]

Alex Pearce

25

Alex Pearce

Age

29

Ht

201cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.6

3star

K

5.2

2star

HB

5.4

4star

M

3.4

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

106.3

2star

No current season stats available

D

11.0

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

6.0

4star

M

4.4

4star

T

0.8

3star

MG

103.2

2star

AA bet is dead and buried

RIP

so unlucky

 

[Bucking Bronco]

I got it wrong about the Bears being a top 4 contender.

I realised it before they played Sydney that I had missed something in my analysis (I am a mug).

Still not convinced they make it though, they likely have to win 4 of their last 5.

That's why I am betting:

2.5U - Essendon top 4 - $15 (PB)

Unlikely but I could see them winning their final 5 and finishing 4th in this shitshow of a season.

 

[sohohoho]

rolling money over for 5 wins would be so much better? given their percentage they would need the 5 wins I believe.

May end up coming down to that final round matchup with them

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

I got it wrong about the Bears being a top 4 contender.

I realised it before they played Sydney that I had missed something in my analysis (I am a mug).

Still not convinced they make it though, they likely have to win 4 of their last 5.

That's why I am betting:

2.5U - Essendon top 4 - $15 (PB)

Unlikely but I could see them winning their final 5 and finishing 4th in this shitshow of a season.

You forgot to mention one thing about Essendon besides Sydney and Brisbane last 2 rounds

They suck

 

[Bucking Bronco]

I got it wrong about the Bears being a top 4 contender.

I realised it before they played Sydney that I had missed something in my analysis (I am a mug).

Still not convinced they make it though, they likely have to win 4 of their last 5.

That's why I am betting:

2.5U - Essendon top 4 - $15 (PB)

Unlikely but I could see them winning their final 5 and finishing 4th in this shitshow of a season.

That ended in embarrassing fashion.

1U - McKercher rising star - $18 (SB)
5U - Fremantle top 4 - $1.72 (SB)
5U - Carlton top 4 - $1.90 (SB)

 

[Bucking Bronco]

10U - Port O13.5 @ $1.87.

Hedging this with 5U Sydney tomorrow. Not convinced Port are getting 14 wins.

 

[demon_fanatic]

If you look at the draw I think there lies real value in taking Freo 7.00 (bet 365) to miss the 8... Sure they are a good side with a nice midfield and solid back but not having Pearce may really hurt the next 2 weeks vs Cats (Cameron) and then GWS (Hogan) In two weeks GWS will also have Coniglio and Kelly back basically full strength and the last round could be a brutally tough game at home vs Port who will likely be shooting for a top 2 home final or looking to lock in the top 4 double chance.

If they lose all 3 they are likely gone for sure... but now because of not gaining that draw Sunday.. they can even miss if they only win 1 of those matches with a huge 54 points (13.5 wins!!)..

If they had of gained that draw 1 win would tie them on 56 with Carlton (if they win 2 of 3) and Hawks (winning all 3) but with a likely better % to keep them above them, but that Essendon point could now prove very very costly.. Carlton should bank wins their last 2 vs Saints and Eagles despite Eagles winning at home the other night.. so even if they lose to hawks they'd leapfrog Freo to 56 points, Hawthorn would have to win all 3 also but that 56 point finish is on the cards for them as long as they Beat Carlton this week with North and Richmond to come after that.

Look, they should beat Geelong at home and Freo have responded well off a loss most if not all of the year.. but you just never know with Geelong I guess.. I just feel of all the teams in the 8 with the prices on offer.. 7.00 is worth a bit of a trickle incase things do go wrong for Freo Saturday Arvo. I hope not as I enjoy their playing style...

FWIW i cashed out my $323 Freotop 8/USA Womens to win bball bet for $313 just before, it was only going to return me a $97 profit of $420 Return so I'd rather not deal with the stress of the next 3 weeks !!

 

[Jugada]

They will have so many outs just from picking up one win that 6 or 7 results would have to go against them to still miss out. Almost seems more likely that they could lose all three and still make finals than miss out after picking up a win

I would imagine rolling over the money on their opposition every week would net a better return than $7

 

[demon_fanatic]

They will have so many outs just from picking up one win that 6 or 7 results would have to go against them to still miss out. Almost seems more likely that they could lose all three and still make finals than miss out after picking up a win

I would imagine rolling over the money on their opposition every week would net a better return than $7

Nah as explained above.. win 1 and hawks win their 3 and they still miss providing Carlton handle their business vs Eagles and Saints.. Geelong also have 2 gifts to finish the season.. rolling over no good if they win 1 and the above still happens as you won't get 7.00 odds.. it's just definately worth a look I feel.. I rate Freo but they will be feeling the heat if they lose to Geelong this week and suddenly have to go to GWS with a near full strength GWS Team in who I rate as the equal 2nd best team in chances of winning the flag behind Brisbane and equal with Dogs

 

[Jugada]

Nah as explained above.. win 1 and hawks win their 3 and they still miss providing Carlton handle their business vs Eagles and Saints.. Geelong also have 2 gifts to finish the season.. rolling over no good if they win 1 and the above still happens as you won't get 7.00 odds.. it's just definately worth a look I feel.. I rate Freo but they will be feeling the heat if they lose to Geelong this week and suddenly have to go to GWS with a near full strength GWS Team in who I rate as the equal 2nd best team in chances of winning the flag behind Brisbane and equal with Dogs

Yeah exactly Hawthorn have to win all 3 matches and Carlton have to win their last 2. As well as the team they beat having to win one of their other two matches.

Taking the $7 also no good if they lose all three and still make finals. Feels like both alternates are a similar probability to me

 

[demon_fanatic]

Yeah exactly Hawthorn have to win all 3 matches and Carlton have to win their last 2. As well as the team they beat having to win one of their other two matches.

Taking the $7 also no good if they lose all three and still make finals. Feels like both alternates are a similar probability to me

Just saying if they lose to Cats Saturday they suddenly get a full strength GWS away who they'd start prob 8-12 pt underdogs against and final round a port team likely looking at holding a top 2 spot which would be a coin flip even in the comforts of home. If Hawks win Sunday, Freo will have to win 2 of those last 3 tough ones... So they'd definately prefer Carlton to win on Sunday for them as it gets the Hawks off their tail and means they'll only need 1 win... It's a treacherous run compared to Geelongs final 2 and Carltons final 2 so the 7.00 is value.

 

[Rank]

Just back GWS for the flag

 

[sohohoho]

Just back GWS for the flag

Teams going to keep kicking behinds against them?

 

[Rank]

Teams going to keep kicking behinds against them?

They'll keep coming no matter what, seriously good footy team.

 

[Saints4ever]

If you look at the draw I think there lies real value in taking Freo 7.00 (bet 365) to miss the 8... Sure they are a good side with a nice midfield and solid back but not having Pearce may really hurt the next 2 weeks vs Cats (Cameron) and then GWS (Hogan) In two weeks GWS will also have Coniglio and Kelly back basically full strength and the last round could be a brutally tough game at home vs Port who will likely be shooting for a top 2 home final or looking to lock in the top 4 double chance.

If they lose all 3 they are likely gone for sure... but now because of not gaining that draw Sunday.. they can even miss if they only win 1 of those matches with a huge 54 points (13.5 wins!!)..

If they had of gained that draw 1 win would tie them on 56 with Carlton (if they win 2 of 3) and Hawks (winning all 3) but with a likely better % to keep them above them, but that Essendon point could now prove very very costly.. Carlton should bank wins their last 2 vs Saints and Eagles despite Eagles winning at home the other night.. so even if they lose to hawks they'd leapfrog Freo to 56 points, Hawthorn would have to win all 3 also but that 56 point finish is on the cards for them as long as they Beat Carlton this week with North and Richmond to come after that.

Look, they should beat Geelong at home and Freo have responded well off a loss most if not all of the year.. but you just never know with Geelong I guess.. I just feel of all the teams in the 8 with the prices on offer.. 7.00 is worth a bit of a trickle incase things do go wrong for Freo Saturday Arvo. I hope not as I enjoy their playing style...

FWIW i cashed out my $323 Freotop 8/USA Womens to win bball bet for $313 just before, it was only going to return me a $97 profit of $420 Return so I'd rather not deal with the stress of the next 3 weeks !!

This was a really good shout.
Especially now that the cats knocked off freo.

 

[demon_fanatic]

This was a really good shout.
Especially now that the cats knocked off freo.

well apparantly it wasn't a good shout lol... so many people by default in these threads just look to oppose anything anyone says haha..

I still think Freo beat Port final round if they need it to qualify but I don't think they beat GWS this week.. if Carlton somehow win both their games even with the injuries and Port win the showdown then Freo I believe are eliminated even before that port match right? of course assuming Hawks win both theirs and dogs defeat North

 

[Jatz]

well apparantly it wasn't a good shout lol... so many people by default in these threads just look to oppose anything anyone says haha..

I still think Freo beat Port final round if they need it to qualify but I don't think they beat GWS this week.. if Carlton somehow win both their games even with the injuries and Port win the showdown then Freo I believe are eliminated even before that port match right? of course assuming Hawks win both theirs and dogs defeat North

We won't win either game, we're absolutely cooked.

 

[sohohoho]

well apparantly it wasn't a good shout lol... so many people by default in these threads just look to oppose anything anyone says haha..

I still think Freo beat Port final round if they need it to qualify but I don't think they beat GWS this week.. if Carlton somehow win both their games even with the injuries and Port win the showdown then Freo I believe are eliminated even before that port match right? of course assuming Hawks win both theirs and dogs defeat North

Pretty sure people just said you could get better prices backing different results to happen which is often the case at this time of year.
Will be very relevant come finals when people want to back a team outside the top 4 at some terrible price when a 4 leg all up would pay so much more.

 

[freo_leo29]

That Freo bet looking much better when you realise the club was lying about Treacys injury (PCL, likely not available til finals)


Then Darcy goes down before the cats game

Freo need to beat 1 of the top 3 and rely on dogs/blues/hawks choking easy wins

(Dogs do have 1 hard game)

 

[GROTTO]

well apparantly it wasn't a good shout lol... so many people by default in these threads just look to oppose anything anyone says haha..

I still think Freo beat Port final round if they need it to qualify but I don't think they beat GWS this week.. if Carlton somehow win both their games even with the injuries and Port win the showdown then Freo I believe are eliminated even before that port match right? of course assuming Hawks win both theirs and dogs defeat North

+1

I like an alternative viewpoint, but opposing just for the sake of it can be detracting.

 

[GROTTO]

We won't win either game, we're absolutely cooked.

Huge game for the Eagles too, last home game, last home game for their caretaker coach, last game for Gaff, they will definitely be up for the contest.

Eagles have won and also pushed a lot better sides in Perth.

They are odds on to miss the 8 for the first time this year.

 

[Jugada]

well apparantly it wasn't a good shout lol... so many people by default in these threads just look to oppose anything anyone says haha..

Lol completely missed the point then mate