AFL 2024 - AFL ROUND 10

[balmainforever]

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Holmes 20+
Flanders 25+
Ainsworth 15+
Stengle any time
Ainsworth any time
Under 161.5 points
Gold Coast Qtr time leader
$13.75

 

[balmainforever]

Most Disposals Group A

Best Prices from TAB/Sportsbet

Anderson 2.95 (SB)
Flanders 3.05 (SB)
Miller 4.50 (SB)
Holmes 9.50 (TAB)
Stewart 13 (TAB)
Rowell 14 (SB)
Miers 17 (SB)
C Guthrie 21 (TAB)


Who is the value there? I cant be trusting Anderson at that price in those hot conditions up in Darwin. Also tends to underperform against Geelong.

Last encounter between these two sides, Stewart finished equal leader, with a player who isnt playing (Weller)

Happy to have a 1u Stewart most disposals at 13, 0.5u play on Miers at 17. Geelong may look to play a tad slower without their 2 big forwards up front.

I think i'd rather Holmes than Stewart

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Most Disposals Group A

Best Prices from TAB/Sportsbet

Anderson 2.95 (SB)
Flanders 3.05 (SB)
Miller 4.50 (SB)
Holmes 9.50 (TAB)
Stewart 13 (TAB)
Rowell 14 (SB)
Miers 17 (SB)
C Guthrie 21 (TAB)


Who is the value there? I cant be trusting Anderson at that price in those hot conditions up in Darwin. Also tends to underperform against Geelong.

Last encounter between these two sides, Stewart finished equal leader, with a player who isnt playing (Weller)

Happy to have a 1u Stewart most disposals at 13, 0.5u play on Miers at 17. Geelong may look to play a tad slower without their 2 big forwards up front.

Holmes isn’t the worst shout. 31 the week prior to last, but a dewy night in Darwin is a lottery. I’d have something on Cam Guthrie at the 21’s and hope for the best

 

[burge13]

Neither team 90+ tonight is 2.10 as a SGM at 365 - not bad?

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Neither team 90+ tonight is 2.10 as a SGM at 365 - not bad?

Lock it in a few multis, I've taken the u161.5 into a few games (Swans, Pies 1-39, GWS, and North +48.5). The North is a hail mary but it's the type of game Essendon go peak Essendon

 

[X_box_X]

Neither team 90+ tonight is 2.10 as a SGM at 365 - not bad?

$2.40 w TAB, my friend.

 

[sohohoho]

Neither team 90+ tonight is 2.10 as a SGM at 365 - not bad?

TAB have a neither to 90 market and its 2.30 there.

found I lose overall on this market but they always seem appealing in games like tonight.

 

[jikost]

De Goey returning this week. Given Pies forward line woes, I wouldn't be surprised if they play him permanently forward on Saturday.

2+ @ $5 pb
3+ @ $15
4+ @ $67

 

[pacemaker]

Anderson u28.5
Stewart u22.5

$3.50 SB

 

[Selim]

Lukosious wouldnt be playing forward this week would he? SB gave me boosted power plays on him for 4 and 5 but i thought he was a perm defender now?

 

[freo_leo29]

Lukosious wouldnt be playing forward this week would he? SB gave me boosted power plays on him for 4 and 5 but i thought he was a perm defender now?

Dimma said he is a forward now early last week

 

[dontlimitme]

Lukosious wouldnt be playing forward this week would he? SB gave me boosted power plays on him for 4 and 5 but i thought he was a perm defender now?

he is an absolute fraudulent blonde haired weak as cat

 

[Selim]

Dimma said he is a forward now early last week

he is an absolute fraudulent blonde haired weak as cat

well shit i guess i gotta be on him even tho this game looks horrible he did kick 5 agaisnt dogs in darwin last year

2-5 @2.30, 5.50, 21, 64

 

[pacemaker]

Gold Coast v Geelong
Touk Miller

11

Touk Miller

Age

28

Ht

178cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.7

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

12.3

5star

M

3.7

4star

T

5.4

5star

CL

4.2

5star

D

22.0

5star

K

11.4

4star

HB

10.6

5star

M

2.9

3star

T

4.8

5star

CL

4.1

5star

D

17.8

5star

K

5.8

3star

HB

12.0

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

3.0

5star

To Get 90+ Fantasy
Zach Guthrie

39

Zach Guthrie

Age

26

Ht

188cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.0

3star

K

5.8

2star

HB

5.2

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

90.0

1star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

1.0

1star

T

1.0

2star

MG

90.0

2star

D

10.4

3star

K

3.8

2star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.6

4star

To Get 80+ Fantasy
Gryan Miers

32

Gryan Miers

Age

25

Ht

179cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.4

4star

K

9.1

4star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.1

4star

T

1.8

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

15.3

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.6

4star

T

1.6

3star

G

0.9

4star

D

14.4

4star

K

8.4

4star

HB

6.0

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.2

4star

To Get 80+ Fantasy
Matt Rowell

18

Matt Rowell

Age

23

Ht

180cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

D

17.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

D

17.4

5star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

To Get 80+ Fantasy
Brandan Parfitt

3

Brandan Parfitt

Age

26

Ht

180cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

8.4

3star

HB

8.2

5star

M

2.1

2star

T

4.8

5star

CL

1.9

4star

D

15.3

4star

K

8.5

3star

HB

6.8

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

7.8

5star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

6.4

3star

HB

8.4

5star

M

2.8

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

0.6

3star

To Get 70+ Fantasy
Sam Clohesy To Get 70+ Fantasy
Either Less Than 15.5 Tri Bet 15.5
Either Less Than 19.5 1st Half Tri Bet 19.5
Tyson Stengle

18

Tyson Stengle

Age

26

Ht

175cm

Wt

71kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.3

2star

K

5.8

2star

HB

3.5

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

10.3

3star

K

5.3

2star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.3

1star

T

2.0

3star

G

0.5

4star

D

8.8

3star

K

5.6

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.6

4star

G

1.6

5star

To Kick 2+ Goals
Ben Long

22

Ben Long

Age

27

Ht

186cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.9

3star

K

6.2

2star

HB

4.7

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.7

4star

MG

166.8

3star

D

12.8

3star

K

6.7

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.3

3star

MG

129.0

2star

D

13.4

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

3.2

5star

MG

223.0

4star

Anytime Goalscorer

$114 PB

 

[pacemaker]

well s**t i guess i gotta be on him even tho this game looks horrible he did kick 5 agaisnt dogs in darwin last year

2-5 @2.30, 5.50, 21, 64

I see him having a defensive forward role on Tom Stewart. Maybe kicks 1 or 2.

 

[_ASP3X]

1u - Blicavs AGS @ $3.50 (TAB)
0.5u - Blicavs 2+ @ $18 (SB)

1u - Dempsey AGS @ $1.80 (B365)

1u - Johnston AGS @ $2.20 (PB)

1u - Long AGS @ $1.75 (PB)

1u - Long, Ainsworth, Rohan, Stengle AGS @ $4.94 (PB)

 

[jikost]

Would be knife into the heart painful seeing Lukosious kick 3 or 4 tonight given the odds he was paying last week.

Touk Miller

11

Touk Miller

Age

28

Ht

178cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.7

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

12.3

5star

M

3.7

4star

T

5.4

5star

CL

4.2

5star

D

22.0

5star

K

11.4

4star

HB

10.6

5star

M

2.9

3star

T

4.8

5star

CL

4.1

5star

D

17.8

5star

K

5.8

3star

HB

12.0

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

3.0

5star

AGS @ $4.30 sb - Might have been a one off against North, but he attended only 43% of the CB's with Davies and Humphrey at a similar percentage. Was resting forward at different stages and ended up with 7 disposals inside 50 for 2 scoring shots (1.1). Hopefully Davies isn't the sub.

 

[dontlimitme]

Would be knife into the heart painful seeing Lukosious kick 3 or 4 tonight given the odds he was paying last week.

 

[toenail11]

Luko was an absolute disgrace to watch last week my god

 

[pacemaker]

Gold Coast v Geelong
Zach Guthrie

39

Zach Guthrie

Age

26

Ht

188cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.0

3star

K

5.8

2star

HB

5.2

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

90.0

1star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

1.0

1star

T

1.0

2star

MG

90.0

2star

D

10.4

3star

K

3.8

2star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.6

4star

Over 85.5
Tom Stewart Under 88.5
Sam Flanders Under 109.5
Noah Anderson

15

Noah Anderson

Age

23

Ht

192cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

6.0

4star

M

2.0

2star

T

0.0

1star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

6.0

3star

M

2.0

2star

T

0.0

1star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

6.0

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

0.0

1star

CL

0.0

1star

Under 107.5
Matt Rowell

18

Matt Rowell

Age

23

Ht

180cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

D

17.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

D

17.4

5star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

Under 100.5
Noah Anderson

15

Noah Anderson

Age

23

Ht

192cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

6.0

4star

M

2.0

2star

T

0.0

1star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

6.0

3star

M

2.0

2star

T

0.0

1star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

6.0

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

0.0

1star

CL

0.0

1star

Under 28.5
Tom Stewart Under 22.5
Matt Rowell

18

Matt Rowell

Age

23

Ht

180cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

D

17.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

D

17.4

5star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

Under 23.5
Under 180.5 Totals

$52 PB

 

[taurus]

GC U40
Swans
Freo
NRL Bulldogs line
Knights line
Dolphins adjusted -7.5
@$42.79 Ladbrokes

 

[Jonsyd1]

Holmes isn’t the worst shout. 31 the week prior to last, but a dewy night in Darwin is a lottery. I’d have something on Cam Guthrie at the 21’s and hope for the best

Guthrie @21 looks good, tailing that

 

[toenail11]

Free hit for tonight
backing the darwin boys to get at least 1 again and the speedy cats to slip through

Long
Johnston
Rohan
Stengle
Close
All ags @7

 

[dontlimitme]

Free hit for tonight
backing the darwin boys to get at least 1 again and the speedy cats to slip through

Long
Johnston
Rohan
Stengle
Close
All ags @7

 

[Coach Bombay]

Wish Aussie markets would be like US ones, where you can back players for over and under on most lines.

This board would go wild cheering for some spud missing a shot on goal or getting benched.

I've thought about this for a while. I'm really surprised books haven't gone down this path. If NBA props are anything to go by its really difficult to nail as a punter so good for the books