AFL 2024 - AFL ROUND 16

[balmainforever]

 

[dontlimitme]

brisbane on a heavy upward trajectory, melbourne on an insane downward spiral + the petracca news/**** up, up at the gabba, oliver is fat and still coming down from all his drug use in pre season

surely brisbane just belts them, or melbourne just barely scrape 50-60 points

 

[sohohoho]

very hard to see Melbourne putting up any sort of score

 

[anabac]

brisbane on a heavy upward trajectory, melbourne on an insane downward spiral + the petracca news/**** up, up at the gabba, oliver is fat and still coming down from all his drug use in pre season

surely brisbane just belts them, or melbourne just barely scrape 50-60 points

It's going to be a destroyation

Keeping it simple -

Brissy 40+
Daniher 2+
Hipwood 2+
$4.33 Lads ($4.48 boosted)

 

[Fizza]

A few don't mind on tab
Isaac cumming 3.10 snag. Played fwd end of last year, snags in 3 of his last 4 games.

Jacob kosi, 1.80 snag, surely gets on end of one.

Nick holman 2.70 snag. Shootout at home, should start sub 2bucks.

Also don't min big O mcinerney 2.80. Bris downhill skiers v dee's. Kicked 3 last week ad snags in 3 of last 5. Max doesn't man up

A few snag predictions from Sausage Legs love to see it

 

[dontlimitme]

surely holman starts sub looking at that bench

 

[dontlimitme]

the gods have spoken

TRAYNER

 

[NYRB]

TAB Touch WA Offers:

Daniher, Charlie Cameron

23

Charlie Cameron

Age

30

Ht

180cm

Wt

76kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.1

3star

K

8.4

3star

HB

3.7

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

3.2

5star

G

1.5

5star

D

9.6

2star

K

7.9

3star

HB

1.7

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.7

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

9.6

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

4.2

4star

M

1.4

2star

T

3.4

5star

G

1.2

4star

and Oscar Allen

12

Oscar Allen

Age

25

Ht

196cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.8

2star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.1

4star

No current season stats available

D

8.6

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

2.8

3star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.0

4star

G

1.2

4star

to Combine for 6+ Goals this week at $3.50. (Max Stake: $20)

Hipwood, Amartey and Jesse Hogan

23

Jesse Hogan

Age

29

Ht

196cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.0

4star

K

9.3

4star

HB

5.7

4star

M

6.4

5star

T

1.4

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

10.3

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

4.3

3star

M

5.3

5star

T

0.0

1star

G

0.0

1star

D

13.0

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

4.0

3star

M

6.4

5star

T

1.4

4star

G

1.8

5star

to Combine for 6+ Goals this week at $2.50 (Max Stake: $20)


Also taken the Freo Dockers to beat Sydney Swans offer at $4.67 (Max Stake: $30). If Freo lead by 12+ pts any time but lose money back.

Freo beat Sydney on their home deck last year at odds against and they played pretty well against the Suns last week.

 

[X_box_X]

TAB Touch WA Offers:

Daniher, Charlie Cameron and Oscar Allen to Combine for 6+ Goals this week at $3.50. (Max Stake: $20)

Hipwood, Amartey and Jesse Hogan to Combine for 6+ Goals this week at $2.50 (Max Stake: $20)


Also taken the Freo Dockers to beat Sydney Swans offer at $4.67 (Max Stake: $30). If Freo lead by 12+ pts any time but lose money back.

Freo beat Sydney on their home deck last year at odds against and they played pretty well against the Suns last week.

Fwiw, Hipwood doesn't have a great record against Melbourne.

Lever back is going to help Melbourne a lot. They may not have the attacking prowess to kick a winning score, but their defence could at least keep the scoreboard respectable.

 

[kicksome]

Ah Chee 3-5
2+ 3.35, 3+ 9.50, 5+ 29

Big O AGS 2.55, 2+ 10.50

im tailing these 2, i think they are both good bets. May and Lever should put the clamps on hipwood and Joe, so the goals should be coming from elsewhere.

also thinking about lohman, bailey, raynor,

 

[NYRB]

Fwiw, Hipwood doesn't have a great record against Melbourne.

Lever back is going to help Melbourne a lot. They may not have the attacking prowess to kick a winning score, but their defence could at least keep the scoreboard respectable.

Fair enough.

Im not sure if Lever is playing 100%. Feel like if Melbourne season wasn't up the line, Lever probably doesn't play this week.

My thinking is May v Daniher and Hipwood v Lever. Do agree with most others on here, value to be got in looking at alternate goalscorers for Brisbane. Although Morris for 2+ Goals at 1.67 at Sportsbet , juice is gone.

Daniher in the Rd 5 game, was picking up disposals and playing a bit up forward and in the rucks. Daniher disposals line at SB is U/O 18.5, where I am leaning towards the under.

 

[dontlimitme]

lohman/trayner time tonight

 

[NYRB]

Sportsbet have now drifted Morris 2+ Goals from 1.67 to 1.74 but feel like it should be at least 1.85+ or more.

 

[dontlimitme]

Sportsbet have now drifted Morris 2+ Goals from 1.67 to 1.74 but feel like it should be at least 1.85+ or more.

i mean he's gone 1.3, 2.1, 2.1, 2.0, 1.1, 3.0 and 2.0 in the 7 games he's played this season which are the first 7 games of his career and now they are 35 point favourites at home

probably should be shorter

 

[NYRB]

i mean he's gone 1.3, 2.1, 2.1, 2.0, 1.1, 3.0 and 2.0 in the 7 games he's played this season which are the first 7 games of his career and now they are 35 point favourites at home

probably should be shorter

The line for Brisbane Goals is U/O 14.5 goals, which seems a tad high for me. I had it around 13.5 line. I guess the question is how the goals are distributed tonight. Yeah I can see a world where, Hipwood and Daniher are restricted , and the other forwards look to cash in. Probably one or two out of: Lohmann, Rayner, Morris, Charlie Cameron, Ah Chee benefit if Daniher and Hipwood are restricted.

Brisbane generally though do look to play in an entertaining style at home. Daniher kicked 2 goals in the 1st quarter last game against the Dees and Ive taken this Friday night parlay for a bit of interest.

Bit of a lotto play:

Daniher AGS 1st Qtr
Daniher Under 18.5 Disposals
Rayner 2+ Goals
Big O AGS
Jarrod Berry AGS

Odds: $128 SB

 

[pacemaker]

TAB Touch WA Offers:

Daniher, Charlie Cameron and Oscar Allen to Combine for 6+ Goals this week at $3.50. (Max Stake: $20)

Hipwood, Amartey and Jesse Hogan to Combine for 6+ Goals this week at $2.50 (Max Stake: $20)


Also taken the Freo Dockers to beat Sydney Swans offer at $4.67 (Max Stake: $30). If Freo lead by 12+ pts any time but lose money back.

Freo beat Sydney on their home deck last year at odds against and they played pretty well against the Suns last week.

Taking the first one. Could be the game Cameron does something and Daniher should get his 2 or 3.

 

[jikost]

Trent Rivers

24

Trent Rivers

Age

23

Ht

188cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.7

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

4.7

3star

M

2.0

2star

T

2.0

4star

MG

171.3

3star

D

10.7

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

4.7

3star

M

2.0

2star

T

2.0

3star

MG

171.3

3star

D

10.7

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

4.7

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

2.0

4star

MG

171.3

3star

20+/AGS @ $8.43 pb - This hit last week, and now that he's in the midfield (80% CB's last week) he's far more likely to kick a goal than when he was playing off half-back.

 

[NYRB]

Trent Rivers 20+/AGS @ $8.43 pb - This hit last week, and now that he's in the midfield (80% CB's last week) he's far more likely to kick a goal than when he was playing off half-back.

Tailed but price has come into $6.91

 

[Fizza]

dontlimitme Tailed
Lohmann 2+ Rayner 2+ $7.5
Rayner 3+ Lohmann 2+ $21
Rayner 4+ Lohmann 4+ $451
Rayner 4+ $30
All Bet365

 

[toenail11]

Free hit

2 morris Cameron
1 fritsch jvr Hipwood
@6.25

^ reluctantly cautious of may and lever getting on top of the lanky kings. Georgiades had another chance last week and he delivered , now we are giving Charlie the opportunity

also pure Brisbane multi below

2 Daniher Hipwood
1 morris lohman Cameron Rayner

16

Cameron Rayner

Age

25

Ht

186cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.4

3star

K

6.2

2star

HB

5.2

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.4

4star

CL

1.3

3star

D

11.3

3star

K

5.8

2star

HB

5.5

3star

M

3.1

3star

T

3.0

4star

CL

1.8

4star

D

10.8

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

4.4

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.2

4star

CL

0.4

3star

@8.60 boosted sb

 

[dontlimitme]

Free hit

2 Cameron

 

[toenail11]

Yep I’m flirting with danger

 

[dontlimitme]

Yep I’m flirting with danger

 

[mac23]

Got Fritsch PP’s 2+ and 3+
Thoughts?

 

[dontlimitme]

Got Fritsch PP’s 2+ and 3+
Thoughts?

 

[Fizza]

Yep I’m flirting with danger

toenail11 going out on a limb, makes sense