AFL 2024 - AFL ROUND 20

[balmainforever]

 

[toenail11]

Tailed bowes 2/3

 

[Atavistic]

I like the TAB marks odds for this game:

St Kilda v Essendon
Leg 1 - Josh Battle

26

Josh Battle

Age

26

Ht

193cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.9

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.9

3star

M

5.0

5star

T

2.4

4star

MG

196.8

3star

D

11.0

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

3.8

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

1.8

3star

MG

142.8

3star

D

10.8

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

4.6

4star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.0

4star

MG

175.6

3star

(STK) 8+ Marks
Leg 2 - Dougal Howard

20

Dougal Howard

Age

28

Ht

199cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.9

3star

K

7.8

3star

HB

3.1

3star

M

4.4

4star

T

1.4

3star

MG

176.2

3star

D

9.9

3star

K

8.4

3star

HB

1.4

1star

M

4.7

4star

T

0.6

1star

MG

171.9

3star

D

9.0

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.8

5star

MG

133.8

3star

(STK) 8+ Marks
Leg 3 - Jack Sinclair

35

Jack Sinclair

Age

29

Ht

181cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.5

4star

K

8.1

3star

HB

8.4

5star

M

3.1

3star

T

3.2

5star

MG

235.0

4star

D

15.0

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

5.0

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.0

3star

MG

376.0

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

4.2

2star

HB

7.8

5star

M

1.6

2star

T

2.0

4star

MG

138.2

3star

(STK) 8+ Marks
Leg 4 - Bradley Hill (STK) 6+ Marks
Leg 5 - Nic Martin (ESS) 8+ Marks
Leg 6 - Xavier Duursma

28

Xavier Duursma

Age

24

Ht

186cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.5

5star

K

10.0

4star

HB

8.5

5star

M

5.4

5star

T

2.1

4star

CL

1.6

4star

D

13.0

3star

K

8.8

4star

HB

4.3

3star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.3

3star

CL

0.5

3star

D

16.8

4star

K

8.4

4star

HB

8.4

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

2.0

4star

CL

1.6

4star

(ESS) 8+ Marks

• Bet Amount$10.00
• Odds151.00
• Potential Collect$1,510.00

 

[dontlimitme]

jez most goals/sheez most disp @ 10.50 (NEDS/LADS)

 

[Areyoufireal]

Stewart fantasy scores of scores of 105, 125, 113, 125 since being on ball.

Stewart most Cats fantasy @ 4.70 PB

Stewart +24.5 fantasy handicap @ 7.50 PB
VS: Sheez +0, Xerri +3.5, LDU 12.5, Holmes +16.5, Wardlaw +18.5, Simpkin +22.5, Miers +26.5, Danger +28.5, Scott +31.5

 

[dontlimitme]

stepho and sheezel both in these groups on topsport

 

[Areyoufireal]

Comben first goal accelerator over 10 @ PB - Clarko said starting forward.

 

[NYRB]

Have you included this rounds results where everyone team but 2 still have to play? You have given Hawks 1/3 wins for example.

Yes I did. Every team up until this stage has played 18 games. (bar 2 sides)

You can see by that ladder, that every team would have played 20 games , So I did the predictor for the next 2 rounds. You can see 17 tips added on the top of the photo (8 for this round , 9 for Round 21) So had them 11-9 by the end of Round 21.

Hawks are favourite to beat Adelaide, but are underdog against the Giants in Sydney.

I included Port v Carlton result last night.

I reckon Carltons chances of making Top 4 right would flip though if they lost their next 2 games.

 

[dontlimitme]

Comben first goal accelerator over 10 @ PB - Clarko said starting forward.

TAILED

 

[HTPunter]

Adding Xerri 110 $1.50 120 $2 to the ruck fantasy points for the weekend. Brute up against skinny boy, should dominate him in the ruck and lead to a lot of disposals out of the ruck.

 

[pacemaker]

Jed Bews

24

Jed Bews

Age

31

Ht

186cm

Wt

90kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.9

3star

K

6.1

2star

HB

4.8

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.6

4star

MG

178.2

3star

D

9.5

2star

K

7.5

3star

HB

2.0

1star

M

2.3

2star

T

1.7

3star

MG

205.8

3star

D

8.8

3star

K

3.8

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

3.2

5star

To Get 15+ Disposals
Charlie Comben To Kick 2+ Goals
Tyson Stengle

18

Tyson Stengle

Age

26

Ht

175cm

Wt

71kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.3

2star

K

5.8

2star

HB

3.5

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

10.3

3star

K

5.3

2star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.3

1star

T

2.0

3star

G

0.5

4star

D

8.8

3star

K

5.6

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.6

4star

G

1.6

5star

To Kick 2+ Goals
Geelong 1-24

63.79 pb

 

[GROTTO]

I reckon Carltons chances of making Top 4 right would flip though if they lost their next 2 games.

Pies, then Hawks. Thats not unrealistic either of happening.

 

[ferrisb]

Still reckon 15s is pretty poor value. Would want something above 70s? If they were to lose the next 2 games, that price would be about right. Would be favourites to beat West Coast in Perth, would be favourites to beat the Saints at Docklands. Id price them about $1.16 to beat WCE, and about $1.57 to beat the Saints. The Saints game would have some parallels to the game last night against Power where they would be expected to win but no shoe-in. Motivation would also be a big factor as Power had more stakes on the line.

Did a Squiggle predictor for the next 2 rounds if favourites all won, and Carlton happened to drop their next 2 games:

View attachment 2060188

14 probably is a safe margin to make the Top 8. 15 wins with their decent percentage should see them making the Top 4. All sorts of different perms and combs but I just base it on a world where favs win next 2 rounds and Blues do lose the next 2.

On one hand... Logic, stats and probabilities.

On the other hand... Carlton.

 

[NYRB]

Pies, then Hawks. Thats not unrealistic either of happening.

Blues will probably make the top 4. Might be worthy to get on them around in 2 weeks time when you probably get a better price if you think they will lose their next 2 against Pies and Hawks.

 

[jikost]

Peatling 7 tackles (67% CB's) last week. 3 non-sub games before that he went 10, 1 and 8 tackles. Named on-ball and it's cold and wet in Melbourne today.

6+ tackles @ $2.80 tab
8+ tackles @ $7
10+ tackles @ $19

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Still reckon 15s is pretty poor value. Would want something above 70s? If they were to lose the next 2 games, that price would be about right. Would be favourites to beat West Coast in Perth, would be favourites to beat the Saints at Docklands. Id price them about $1.16 to beat WCE, and about $1.57 to beat the Saints. The Saints game would have some parallels to the game last night against Power where they would be expected to win but no shoe-in. Motivation would also be a big factor as Power had more stakes on the line.

Did a Squiggle predictor for the next 2 rounds if favourites all won, and Carlton happened to drop their next 2 games:

View attachment 2060188

14 probably is a safe margin to make the Top 8. 15 wins with their decent percentage should see them making the Top 4. All sorts of different perms and combs but I just base it on a world where favs win next 2 rounds and Blues do lose the next 2.

If Brissy, Freo and Giants all win this weekend Carlton will fall to 5th.

So I don’t know how you still have them in 5th after a further 2 rounds.

 

[toenail11]

Weller named half forward but will he actually play there ? Johnston named at half back

 

[dontlimitme]

Weller named half forward but will he actually play there ? Johnston named at half back

toe we both know lloyd johnston is not playing half back lmao

 

[jikost]

Weller named half forward but will he actually play there ? Johnston named at half back

They've dropped a back (budarick) and haven't replaced him so it does seem like he'll be moved back this week.

 

[dontlimitme]

ffs rohan

 

[pacemaker]

Huge hit Rohan out

 

[NYRB]

If Brissy, Freo and Giants all win this weekend Carlton will fall to 5th.

So I don’t know how you still have them in 5th after a further 2 rounds.

I had the Giants losing to Melbourne this week. That game has a huge effect on Carltons ladder ranking at the end of this round and next round.

Carlton will be probably cheering on Melbourne this round as their percentages are neck and neck with GWS.

Sportsbooks have the Dees v Giants pretty much as a pick em.

 

[toenail11]

Kick us 1 comben you big crazy battering ram

 

[pacemaker]

Jarrad Witts Half Back 30+

 

[jikost]

Witts first goalscorer @ $41 pb, Moyle first goal scorer @ 23 sb - Both starting on the ground so one of them will line up inside 50.

 

[toenail11]

Ags rosas, long, lohman, morris , Rayner @ 6 pb