balmainforever
Dibs
- Sep 4, 2003
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AFL 2024 - AFL ROUND 5
- Thread starter balmainforever
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lol have they been reading this thread and gone “let’s suck this degen in”
- Oct 6, 2011
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Can you not put even a dollar on that?
Jatz
Jatzosaurus Rex
- Sep 7, 2008
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- 41,604
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- Philadelphia Eagles
Does this update when you actually place the bet? Was looking at the first one and when I add it to my bet slip and try and place it, it's still saying $1.02?
Not even a single dollar. My account doesnt even have an option to go thru to the traders just a set Limit then no more.
Usually is about 350$ the day before the game. up to 1k in the hour before for line bets. With about 10$ during start of the week
Sorry I ment same game multis but cheers for these
- Jun 16, 2018
- 8,989
- 16,083
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- North Melbourne
Okay punting board brains trust, let's work together on this one.
How many times this year has a 'power price' option actually hit?
If they are offering Lohmann at 'power prices' for 3+, does this mean their models (or inside info) have determined that he is no chance?
Or is this one of those things where they are happy to give up an edge on a market, because they know that even if it hits, any degen who makes money on it will put it all on red and lose the lot by the end of the weekend anyway?
tl;dr
Is it a trap?
How many times this year has a 'power price' option actually hit?
If they are offering Lohmann at 'power prices' for 3+, does this mean their models (or inside info) have determined that he is no chance?
Or is this one of those things where they are happy to give up an edge on a market, because they know that even if it hits, any degen who makes money on it will put it all on red and lose the lot by the end of the weekend anyway?
tl;dr
Is it a trap?
Their power prices are just the original odds they offered before being wound in…
- Oct 6, 2011
- 38,180
- 11,835
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
Last week I took Ginnivan Power Price at @ $2.66 and that hit.
Also was given Collingwood -6.5 1st qtr handicap at above evens, that also hit.
Last year, noticed a fair number of those Power Hit prices hit. Although noticed they were the more established players. Lohmann and Thulstorpe are 2 players on the lesser known scale. I took Heeney for 6+ Goals at triple odds (around 150) against Eagles last week for just a few dollars to keep things a bit interesting. It never looked like hitting despite being best on ground.
Not AFL related but in the cricket, the biggest PowerPrice Ive seen come through (which i didnt get on) was Jimmy Neesham to be topscorer in one of the recent cricket matches over there in NZ, which came through at triple figures.
The big hits/big odds are generally on 'gut feel' on the day. Dont think any amount of research will help.
- May 20, 2016
- 9,990
- 14,801
- AFL Club
- GWS
life is a trap just fire the cannons and pray
- Oct 6, 2011
- 38,180
- 11,835
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
I notice this alot with their NBA and AFL set odds for their multis, often when you click 'Add to Bet Slip', the odds are reduced. When you can click 'Power Play' the odds are back to their normal price (before it was reduced).
Gathering it may be a supply v demand thing.
Jatz
Jatzosaurus Rex
- Sep 7, 2008
- 58,212
- 41,604
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- Carlton
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- Philadelphia Eagles
Used to get those Power Price options, clearly not betting enough anymore.
TheCandyMan
Team Captain
- May 15, 2013
- 315
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The Brockman power price hit last year for me and might have been one more. But yeah, majority of times no dice.
On Pixel 6 using BigFooty.com mobile app
It showed the updated odds in my slip
- Aug 16, 2009
- 1,499
- 3,070
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- Essendon
This is entirely anecdotal but I find their algorithm just targets players you've already bet on or the types of bets you usually place. For the Lohmann example, a lot of this board were already on him so that's why they are getting a power price there. If you bet a lot of goal trains that's what you'll get, if you bet mainly lines/handicaps you'll get those boosted. It also targets any horses you have in a blackbook.
It does mean you can game the system a bit, say for example I was keen on Weightman kicking goals in tomorrow nights game. If I put a few bets on him now without betting anything else, chances are that's what I'll get a boosted price on. Similarly, if I put a few horses running on Saturday in my blackbook now, chances are they will give me a boosted price on those. It's definitely not foolproof and doesn't work all the time but you can steer them in your favour.
how did you get the boosted odds? do they have to be in the "my specials " section? I have 5 offers but none with boosted odds like you got... it only has their original odds for me
Surely Brisbane come in from the 2.90-2.94 on betfair if Oliver out... he's not in great form still solid but a name that big the bookies will react especially as Pickett is out too and we looked average rd 1 without his spark albeit in humid weird conditions.. you'd think Brisbane would firm to 2.50ish betfair??? could pound brisbane odds now and lay off later on melbourne
Bobby Hill was powered up 3 for @11 or something a few weeks ago and it hit in the first quarter
It is fishy though
- May 20, 2016
- 9,990
- 14,801
- AFL Club
- GWS
yeah feel like brisbane are overs tonight, can def win this
Weird, it worked for me
Tab touch are one of the only books I'm not promo banned from so maybe that's it
- Oct 6, 2011
- 38,180
- 11,835
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
Line for Joe Daniher on AFL Fantasy Is Under/Over 76.5 points just released this morning on PointsBet at $2.00.
Over 76.5 AFL Fantasy Points at $2.00
1u
Gawn Anytime Goalscorer
Gawn 110+ AFL Fantasy Points
Gawn Over 18.5 Disposals
Gawn 6+ Marks
Odds: $12.12 (Bet Refund if 1 leg fails)
Above bet has covered in 12 of his past 74 games. Play based on value as I can see a world tonight where he scores a goal and wins the battle in the ruck over the Big O. Would probably ignore these odds if it was in single digits.
0.25u
Gawn Anytime Goalscorer
Gawn 110+ AFL Fantasy Points
Gawn Over 18.5 Disposals
Gawn 6+ Marks
Joe Daniher Over 76.5 AFL Fantasy Points
Odds: $24.06
Over 76.5 AFL Fantasy Points at $2.00
1u
Gawn Anytime Goalscorer
Gawn 110+ AFL Fantasy Points
Gawn Over 18.5 Disposals
Gawn 6+ Marks
Odds: $12.12 (Bet Refund if 1 leg fails)
Above bet has covered in 12 of his past 74 games. Play based on value as I can see a world tonight where he scores a goal and wins the battle in the ruck over the Big O. Would probably ignore these odds if it was in single digits.
0.25u
Gawn Anytime Goalscorer
Gawn 110+ AFL Fantasy Points
Gawn Over 18.5 Disposals
Gawn 6+ Marks
Joe Daniher Over 76.5 AFL Fantasy Points
Odds: $24.06
Last edited:
Hava Alle
Premiership Player
- Jul 10, 2016
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Only for Thursday & Friday games.
