AFL 2024 Brownlow Medal

[Johanpetro]

Hey guys! Just wondering what people have Tom green on? He started well, then fell away, but since round 14 his been amongst it. Not the cleanest at times but his TOG is always huge and normally gets most touches, getting Ollie wines vibes from a few years back (consistent) And with Kelly / Cogs not doing much and Toby green hasn’t been his 20 vote season. I feel $67 is way overs.

Love to hear what people have him on!

I have him on 20 ( a fair way off the leader)

 

[Mozza Mail]

I have Cripps 3.5 in front of Daicos and the $4 on offer for Cripps at some places seems too good to be true. Without Curnow and Mckay in doubt it's hard to see Cripps not polling on Sunday if they win and he would be too hard to catch. In the likely scenario Bont polls 3 against North, he'd still have to poll at least 2 vs Giants to be a strong chance if Cripps isn't to poll again and Treloar has been in unreal form. Same as Neale I'd be very surprised to see him on over 25 votes now and he'd also need at least 5 more to be a chance and the umps could be harsher on him after last year. Serong should face Bedford and Drew in his last 2 so his run is done imo. Pies vs lions is a huge game for Daicos while lions have so much to play for then there's also a small chance ANB tags him the round after as he did in R13. Interested to hear everyones thoughts

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I have Cripps 3.5 in front of Daicos and the $4 on offer for Cripps at some places seems too good to be true. Without Curnow and Mckay in doubt it's hard to see Cripps not polling on Sunday if they win and he would be too hard to catch. In the likely scenario Bont polls 3 against North, he'd still have to poll at least 2 vs Giants to be a strong chance if Cripps isn't to poll again and Treloar has been in unreal form. Same as Neale I'd be very surprised to see him on over 25 votes now and he'd also need at least 5 more to be a chance and the umps could be harsher on him after last year. Serong should face Bedford and Drew in his last 2 so his run is done imo. Pies vs lions is a huge game for Daicos while lions have so much to play for then there's also a small chance ANB tags him the round after as he did in R13. Interested to hear everyones thoughts

Blues are going to be toast this weekend. If Cripps can carry them across the line they may as well hand him the Brownlow after the match

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Hey guys! Just wondering what people have Tom green on? He started well, then fell away, but since round 14 his been amongst it. Not the cleanest at times but his TOG is always huge and normally gets most touches, getting Ollie wines vibes from a few years back (consistent) And with Kelly / Cogs not doing much and Toby green hasn’t been his 20 vote season. I feel $67 is way overs.

Love to hear what people have him on!

Been on my mind for weeks, will post my full thoughts once I gain clarity and finish re-watching all their games.

Wonder how Whitfield goes this year. Seems unusual since he’s a halfback but over 2018 and 2019 he pulled 28 votes, outdoing peak Cal Ward in 2018. This year he’s having his best season yet with disposals and it’s all coming in games where Tom Green is also going big so not ideal for Tom. Especially when they’re known for having the tsunami it probably brings him into contention a fraction more for stealing a few extra votes.

Then instead of Toby’s All-Australian captain year we get Jesse Hogans Coleman year, and every time he’s kicked 4+ it’s felt bigger with the way he’s been pulling in the contested marks, could approach 15-20 votes.

Really hope GWS can win their final 2 and then maybe weight of numbers + wins is the Wines formula that Green can rely on

 

[Spooka]

Been on my mind for weeks, will post my full thoughts once I gain clarity and finish re-watching all their games.

Wonder how Whitfield goes this year. Seems unusual since he’s a halfback but over 2018 and 2019 he pulled 28 votes, outdoing peak Cal Ward in 2018. This year he’s having his best season yet with disposals and it’s all coming in games where Tom Green is also going big so not ideal for Tom. Especially when they’re known for

Been on my mind for weeks, will post my full thoughts once I gain clarity and finish re-watching all their games.

Wonder how Whitfield goes this year. Seems unusual since he’s a halfback but over 2018 and 2019 he pulled 28 votes, outdoing peak Cal Ward in 2018. This year he’s having his best season yet with disposals and it’s all coming in games where Tom Green is also going big so not ideal for Tom. Especially when they’re known for having the tsunami it probably brings him into contention a fraction more for stealing a few extra votes.

Then instead of Toby’s All-Australian captain year we get Jesse Hogans Coleman year, and every time he’s kicked 4+ it’s felt bigger with the way he’s been pulling in the contested marks, could approach 15-20 votes.

Really hope GWS can win their final 2 and then maybe weight of numbers + wins is the Wines formula that Green can rely on

having the tsunami it probably brings him into contention a fraction more for stealing a few extra votes.

Then instead of Toby’s All-Australian captain year we get Jesse Hogans Coleman year, and every time he’s kicked 4+ it’s felt bigger with the way he’s been pulling in the contested marks, could approach 15-20 votes.

Really hope GWS can win their final 2 and then maybe weight of numbers + wins is the Wines formula that Green can rely on

 

[Spooka]

Ye most sites have him 0.5-1.5 rounds 14-22, I mean he randomly gets 2s or even a 3 in 1-2 of those games his really close on my count. Also reckon he’s an outside chance to poll round 5/9/11 and no count has him polling. Def not saying his best player on ground, but more touches on ground in a win and been on ground for 110mins, you will get noticed, and also the big frame like a Cripps. Also polled really well last year in similar games.. I have him polling in most games by 2 atm, even though its just a 0.5 and 1 vote game.

 

[Johanpetro]

Ye most sites have him 0.5-1.5 rounds 14-22, I mean he randomly gets 2s or even a 3 in 1-2 of those games his really close on my count. Also reckon he’s an outside chance to poll round 5/9/11 and no count has him polling. Def not saying his best player on ground, but more touches on ground in a win and been on ground for 110mins, you will get noticed, and also the big frame like a Cripps. Also polled really well last year in similar games.. I have him polling in most games by 2 atm, even though its just a 0.5 and 1 vote game.

What do you have him on atm?

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Kieran Briggs is another that could throw a spanner in the works out of nowhere, leads their clearances in 13 games. So frustrating watching Green at stoppages doesn't get on the move anywhere near as much as the other Brownlow fancies. Ranked 24th for average clearances for a guy that could easily be the next Cripps.

 

[Billionaire Panda]

How far off do people have Serong? Guy polled 17 across his last 9 games last year, 4 of those games were losses too.

 

[Spooka]

What do you have him on atm?

I have him on 24.5 but that’s not polling in rounds 5/11/21. Dunno just got a weird feeling he just stands out, and no Kelly / cogs. Feel hogan only one taking votes. The other guys like Briggs just dunno about voting power. Anyway I feel it’s def value at $67s if he’s consistent and amongst for next 2 weeks, like he has been!

 

[Spooka]

How far off do people have Serong? Guy polled 17 across his last 9 games last year, 4 of those games were losses too.

Watching some freo games, young and brayshaw stand out heaps more to me, he obviously polls well. But sometimes I’ll check the stats at HT or what ever and serong be on like 15 touches and I’m like WHEN haha

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Alright let me know your thoughts on this conspiracy

Been looking through possible umpire biases and the Neale one is intriguing.

Some of you might remember round 23, 2022 when Neale polled that random 1 vote in the final round to get him to a clear 2nd and almost catch Cripps.

That game was won in the first qtr and well and truly over by half time. Fritsch and Pickett miss out as leading goalscorers and even McCluggage was Brisbane’s best with 24 touches and 2 goals.
The umpires in that game were Stevic, Hosking and Andrew Stephens. Andrew Stephens seems to be the one. Grew up playing and umpiring in Brisbane. Went to Brisbane Grammar.

When he screwed the Saints in 2016 there was that controversy of favouritism:

I thought it was interesting that instead of claiming all umpires don’t have favourites, they just said he definitely wasn’t a Hawks supporter. But it makes sense that most umps would have a fave team. And from that you’d have to assume that if there was a player in the mix for winning a brownlow there will be a slight tendency to give them votes whenever they can, and at the very least not miss them when they’ve played half decent.


Got to officiate in 6 Brisbane games last year (gets more Brisbane home games than other umps due to living there I guess?):

Round 2 Brisbane v Melb
Neale definitely didn't deserve any votes but got 2. Ashcroft got the 3 as he should. Zorko so stiff got subbed when the lights went off but was bog at the time. Oliver 37 and a goal in a 10pt loss coming home strong. Even Dunkley was better than Neale throughout.

Round 4 Brisbane v Coll
Denied Daicos any votes when he had 38 touches and 2 goals. Gave Neale a vote for 22 touches no goals when Rayner had 17 and 4 goals?? other inside mids better than neale here

Round 7 Brisbane v Freo
Gives Neale the 2 here but probably fair.

Round 10 Brisbane v GC
Neale 3 but did win the medal so deserved.

Round 14 Brisbane v Sydney
Another Brisbane game for him, another Neale 3. Bailey deserved the 3 votes. Gulden deserved 2 but they went Parker instead.

Round 16 Brisbane v Richmond
Neale 3 votes. Probs fair.


Assuming this bias continues, looking at this year, he’s umpired another 6:

Round 0 Brisbane v Carlton
Neale could get votes in the end now that he's umpiring. Had 25 touches most for brisbane in the 1 point loss.

Round 3 Brisbane v Collingwood
20 point loss for Brisbane but Neale 35 1 goal could be enough to get 2 or 3 now

Round 10 Brisbane v Richmond
Huge win, the toss up between Zorko Neale Loman Daniher Cameron will probably go to Neale.

Round 16 Brisbane v Melbourne
Damn big game for him to be umpiring. Bris win by 5. Looked Like Dunkley and McCluggae were better than Neale, and Viney should be in the mix. Neale could pull surprise votes here out the wazoo.

Round 19 Brisbane v Sydney
Surely gets fired if gives Neale votes here. 18 touches 6 clearance surely not…

Round 22 Brisbane v GWS
Doubt he gets any here was held by Bedford. Interestingly it was Stephens that allowed Neale to play on to advantage when play had stopped in the 50 for him to stroll in and kick his goal.

 

[ronpingwins]

Alright let me know your thoughts on this conspiracy

Been looking through possible umpire biases and the Neale one is intriguing.

Some of you might remember round 23, 2022 when Neale polled that random 1 vote in the final round to get him to a clear 2nd and almost catch Cripps.

That game was won in the first qtr and well and truly over by half time. Fritsch and Pickett miss out as leading goalscorers and even McCluggage was Brisbane’s best with 24 touches and 2 goals.
The umpires in that game were Stevic, Hosking and Andrew Stephens. Andrew Stephens seems to be the one. Grew up playing and umpiring in Brisbane. Went to Brisbane Grammar.

When he screwed the Saints in 2016 there was that controversy of favouritism:

I thought it was interesting that instead of claiming all umpires don’t have favourites, they just said he definitely wasn’t a Hawks supporter. But it makes sense that most umps would have a fave team. And from that you’d have to assume that if there was a player in the mix for winning a brownlow there will be a slight tendency to give them votes whenever they can, and at the very least not miss them when they’ve played half decent.


Got to officiate in 6 Brisbane games last year (gets more Brisbane home games than other umps due to living there I guess?):

Round 2 Brisbane v Melb
Neale definitely didn't deserve any votes but got 2. Ashcroft got the 3 as he should. Zorko so stiff got subbed when the lights went off but was bog at the time. Oliver 37 and a goal in a 10pt loss coming home strong. Even Dunkley was better than Neale throughout.

Round 4 Brisbane v Coll
Denied Daicos any votes when he had 38 touches and 2 goals. Gave Neale a vote for 22 touches no goals when Rayner had 17 and 4 goals?? other inside mids better than neale here

Round 7 Brisbane v Freo
Gives Neale the 2 here but probably fair.

Round 10 Brisbane v GC
Neale 3 but did win the medal so deserved.

Round 14 Brisbane v Sydney
Another Brisbane game for him, another Neale 3. Bailey deserved the 3 votes. Gulden deserved 2 but they went Parker instead.

Round 16 Brisbane v Richmond
Neale 3 votes. Probs fair.


Assuming this bias continues, looking at this year, he’s umpired another 6:

Round 0 Brisbane v Carlton
Neale could get votes in the end now that he's umpiring. Had 25 touches most for brisbane in the 1 point loss.

Round 3 Brisbane v Collingwood
20 point loss for Brisbane but Neale 35 1 goal could be enough to get 2 or 3 now

Round 10 Brisbane v Richmond
Huge win, the toss up between Zorko Neale Loman Daniher Cameron will probably go to Neale.

Round 16 Brisbane v Melbourne
Damn big game for him to be umpiring. Bris win by 5. Looked Like Dunkley and McCluggae were better than Neale, and Viney should be in the mix. Neale could pull surprise votes here out the wazoo.

Round 19 Brisbane v Sydney
Surely gets fired if gives Neale votes here. 18 touches 6 clearance surely not…

Round 22 Brisbane v GWS
Doubt he gets any here was held by Bedford. Interestingly it was Stephens that allowed Neale to play on to advantage when play had stopped in the 50 for him to stroll in and kick his goal.

That’s some pretty convincing work if it’s all correct Need to keep an eye on him umpiring the next fortnight. I reckon he’s polling in the first 4 games you mentioned regardless though.

 

[adammania9]

Does anybody else have Petracca above Gawn still? $26 at Sportsbet for Trac seems a little too good

I have Petracca 12.5, Gawn 11

Petracca into $3.50 now for Demons most votes with SB. Extraordinary late-season swing given he's been on the sidelines. Hope some others got on!

 

[demon_fanatic]

hey guys sorry to be a pest but want to have funds ready for when the markets open... when do the groups and INDIVIDUAL ROUNDS votes generally opeN> is it the monday directly after the final round.. my main funds will be bet365, topsport and tab.. thanks

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

hey guys sorry to be a pest but want to have funds ready for when the markets open... when do the groups and INDIVIDUAL ROUNDS votes generally opeN> is it the monday directly after the final round.. my main funds will be bet365, topsport and tab.. thanks

Ideally you would want a Sportsbet account as they are always the first bookies to price and release brownlow markets. Most other bookies usually just copy and paste Sportsbet after a few days, very few bookies will actually have a crack at pricing their own markets (cowards). From memory bet365 are ones that do actually have a crack at the 3 vote games themselves a few days after sportsbet

 

[demon_fanatic]

Ideally you would want a Sportsbet account as they are always the first bookies to price and release brownlow markets. Most other bookies usually just copy and paste Sportsbet after a few days, very few bookies will actually have a crack at pricing their own markets (cowards). From memory bet365 are ones that do actually have a crack at the 3 vote games themselves a few days after sportsbet

nice, when do they get released?? normally

 

[Sausage Legs]

nice, when do they get released?? normally

3 vote games probly the Friday before the count

 

[Johanpetro]

Anyone like the $51 on offer for Gulden atm? Should poll again tonight

 

[NYRB]

Anyone like the $51 on offer for Gulden atm? Should poll again tonight

I have a different view.

I thought Rd 23 Essendon v Swans, the best 4 players not in any particular order: N Martin, Parker, Heeney and Caldwell. A bit of a lottery who gets the 3,2,1 here.

I dont see Gulden polling here.

 

[ronpingwins]

Missed the Pies/Lions game, looks like a tricky one. Daicos poll for 1 quarter? Looks the kind of game Neale could steal one or two

 

[NYRB]

Missed the Pies/Lions game, looks like a tricky one. Daicos poll for 1 quarter? Looks the kind of game Neale could steal one or two

Fun Fact: Lachie Neale when he has kicked 2+ goals in his career, has polled in 10 of 14 matches.

AFL Rd 23 Pies v Brisbane

Naicos best player in the 1st half. Fairly quite 2nd half.

Neale best player in the 2nd half. Fairly quite 1st half.

Big Joe with the best all round game?

I thought Daniher, Howe, O McInerney, J Daicos, Sidebottom all good. I can see a world where Neale misses votes and buck the trend of his career polling history despite scoring multiple goals. You have to judge a performance based on overall four quarters and crunch situations. Dont forget Naicos goal assist in the last quarter as well.

 

[Pinnell]

Fun Fact: Lachie Neale when he has kicked 2+ goals in his career, has polled in 10 of 14 matches.

AFL Rd 23 Pies v Brisbane

Naicos best player in the 1st half. Fairly quite 2nd half.

Neale best player in the 2nd half. Fairly quite 1st half.

Big Joe with the best all round game?

I thought Daniher, Howe, O McInerney, J Daicos, Sidebottom all good. I can see a world where Neale misses votes and buck the trend of his career polling history despite scoring multiple goals. You have to judge a performance based on overall four quarters and crunch situations. Dont forget Naicos goal assist in the last quarter as well.

Games a lottery vote wise. Daicos went missing in the second half. Only 2 possessions in the last when the game was on the line

 

[NYRB]

Games a lottery vote wise. Daicos went missing in the second half. Only 2 possessions in the last when the game was on the line

AFL Rd 23 Game by game betting Pies v Brisbane.

If one can get N Daicos at around 2.65+ , thats worth a play for me.

With a bit of a saver on Neale at 8s when the 3 Vote Markets come out would be my plays. Wishing for anything above 5.50 or so for Neale ? I dont think you can take him at a lower price than that.

I doubt we get those prices though.

 

[dontlimitme]

P... Cripps... 75 votes