AFL 2024 Brownlow Medal

[balmainforever]

Anyone putting up winning or very unlucky losing bets after the count will be given a card.
Everyone has been warned.

 

[Sausage Legs]

I went back and did a 2nd review for that Round 0 . After the light of the umpire and wanting to review it for my own sake, Im quite happy to change that 3,2,1. I got influenced by James Brayshaws commentary on watching that on first time. He seemed to talk Cripps up a bit too much. 2 clearances deep into the 3rd quarter, and despite kicking a goal in the last quarter, he was off in that 4th quarter for around 6 and a half minutes when the game was on the line.

My memory was vague, when rewinding back the clock 5 months ago but I had in the back of my mind that McKay kicked 4 with Curnow. Curnow kicked 4 goals, McKay 3 goals. Lachie Neale was Brisbanes best player throughout the game. Zorko best before half time of all players. Zorko was largely ineffective after quarter time with heaps of clangers and bad disposal use in 2nd half

My final weighted tally:

View attachment 2098530

Will stick with my weighted odds for now but Cripps shouldnt be $1.90-$2.00 for best on ground as originally watching first time. And id be all over Neale if he was around $20 for the 3 Vote Markets if that was available given the ump polling history and the game he had. His midfield game was an overall better game than Cripps.

Curnows 3 goals in the premiership quarter , when the game mattered was what stood out.

In my 2nd review I went 3) Curnow 2) Lachie Neale 1) Harry McKay.

1st review went 3) Cripps 2) Curnow 1) McKay

Weighted Review went 3) Cripps 2) Curnow 1) Neale using a 50:50 weighting system. I dont think in a game where Brisbane were leading for the best part of 2.5 to 3 quarters (75% of the game), it can be a Carlton clean sweep as I originally had.

Anyway its clear from my tallies that there are 4 players in contention for the best on ground.

Just so I know wotz going on, u watched the game again and gave cripps 0 votes, then proceed to give him the maximum votes in your weighted system?

 

[NYRB]

Just so I know wotz going on, u watched the game again and gave cripps 0 votes, then proceed to give him the maximum votes in your weighted system?

Might have to go through a process of a 3rd review to confirm changes. But on my spreadsheet I have still have him for the 3 votes and I have created a W/O Curnow market for the 2nd review on my spreadsheet when I watch it again. Still a bit of time to tinker and go through things again from my side. Today is the first time I checked from major leading sites and coaches votes on how they went about allocating votes for that game.

 

[invisible_]

NYRB, you have incredibly specific weightings (fair odds) going to 3 decimal places, yet you have said you come up with these weightings manually (as stats don't tell the full story)?

Interested to hear your thought process when assigning odds of exactly 128.205 to Ah Chee on your second rewatch, and how his performance differed to odds of 128.204? What would've he needed to for you to give him 128.105?

 

[NYRB]

NYRB, you have incredibly specific weightings (fair odds) going to 3 decimal places, yet you have said you come up with these weightings manually (as stats don't tell the full story)?

Interested to hear your thought process when assigning odds of exactly 128.205 to Ah Chee on your second rewatch, and how his performance differed to odds of 128.204? What would've he needed to for you to give him 128.105?

Maybe I was being a tad generous to Ah Chee. He is probably less than a 0.05% chance of Polling 3 Votes there, which is around a $20,000 shot of polling best on ground. I try to sum up the overrounds close to 100% margins but your right , you simulate that 1000 times, and Ah Chee is never polling best on ground, let alone 1 in 128 chance. I look at the 3 Game vote markets mainly on the contenders from a backers perspective.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Might have to go through a process of a 3rd review to confirm changes. But on my spreadsheet I have still have him for the 3 votes and I have created a W/O Curnow market for the 2nd review on my spreadsheet when I watch it again. Still a bit of time to tinker and go through things again from my side. Today is the first time I checked from major leading sites and coaches votes on how they went about allocating votes for that game.

No worries mate, won't be long until you'll be able to commentate it blindfolded

 

[sohohoho]

Might be ready for the 2028 brownlow

 

[burge13]

Might be ready for the 2028 brownlow

The first bet you post on here?

 

[Sausage Legs]

Right now is the best time on tab you'll get a price for yeo 1.75, heen 1.50, martin without zerrett 1.35 to throw in multis with nuke and co

Sbet have opened multis and are now half the price of most of these. Won't be long til tab catches up.

 

[Spooka]

Can multi markets on Sportsbet now legends!

 

[pendlebury_10]

Had a fair crack at these markets, reckon some good value around

I’m finding there’s little to no value compared to previous years, normally these markets are great to hit a few outliers.

Surprised no one really hitting the to poll votes markers. Bont 25+, crippa 30+, Walsh 15+, serong 25+ and butters 20+ gets ya 17.39 for ya buck.

I only have Cripps clearing out of the five.
A chance yes, but only worth a small wager.

 

[Sausage Legs]

I’m finding there’s little to no value compared to previous years, normally these markets are great to hit a few outliers.



I only have Cripps clearing out of the five.
A chance yes, but only worth a small wager.

The unders player lines mite be your jam

 

[NYRB]

Went to this game. Thought 2mp best

I watched this game on 2nd review AFL Rd 10 Essendon v North Melbourne, and Im going to stick with what I had originally. The 1 vote will be the hard one to assess.......On 2nd review , I had McGrath as 3rd best and Guelfi on 4th best. My weighted reviews, said Guelfi was better. Guelfi 100th game and this is a chance for him to poll his first brownlow votes in his career. Would be keen to have at a price of around $2.25+ To Poll a Vote if offered. Might be a good one to have in a potential betbuilder. Ive adjusted my first trial to include more players from my 2nd count, using 100% margin.

The match had a clear top 2 and then there was a gap between them and the rest.




Keen to have a look at LDU at 4s for Best on Ground if I can get it in the 3 Vote Markets. Im even willing to have a nibble at 3s .

 

[burge13]

I watched this game on 2nd review AFL Rd 10 Essendon v North Melbourne, and Im going to stick with what I had originally. The 1 vote will be the hard one to assess.......On 2nd review , I had McGrath as 3rd best and Guelfi on 4th best. My weighted reviews, said Guelfi was better. Guelfi 100th game and this is a chance for him to poll his first brownlow votes in his career. Would be keen to have at a price of around $2.25+ To Poll a Vote if offered. Might be a good one to have in a potential betbuilder. Ive adjusted my first trial to include more players from my 2nd count, using 100% margin.

The match had a clear top 2 and then there was a gap between them and the rest.

View attachment 2099253


Keen to have a look at LDU at 4s for Best on Ground if I can get it in the 3 Vote Markets. Im even willing to have a nibble at 3s .

Caldwell 25 touches, 9 clearances, 6 inside 50's, 5 tackles & team won by 40 getting overlooked here

 

[demon_fanatic]

B365 Jeremy Cameron

5

Jeremy Cameron

Age

31

Ht

196cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.5

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

2.6

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

2.9

2star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.4

4star

G

2.0

5star

vs Dawson both 1.87.. ill take Cameron here

 

[NYRB]

Caldwell 25 touches, 9 clearances, 6 inside 50's, 5 tackles & team won by 40 getting overlooked here

Bombers defenders were all good, not something you usually say for them. Redman, McGrath, Nic Martin, Ben McKay, Laverde all good. Zurhaar and Larkey combined for 1 goal together. I see Caldwell polling votes in the season but just not this game. Merrett had a bad game and was tagged out by Liam Shiels. One of the comms (think it was Jordan Lewis) said Corr was Norths "best player by far"- which was wrong. Mayne he was 2nd best but definitely not best.



Redman and Kelly were leading the Intercepts- a leading indicator defenders. A defender could well snag the 1 vote here, as Redmans Metres Per Disposal was one of the higher ratios in the match. Looked at some trends for last years game for the first 151 games for the 3 votes. (still an ongoing model that I have created) Average Metres Gained was around 453 or so, at 16.31 metres gained per disposal. Nic Martin I dont think should be in calculation for votes as he was kicking the ball sideways and backwards a fair bit- much lower metreage per disposal at 12.15 metres per disposal.

McGrath had 492 metres gained, at 21.39 metres gained per disposal.

 

[sohohoho]

Something wrong if Caldwell can't make your table though.

3rd best on for me

 

[NYRB]

Something wrong if Caldwell can't make your table though.

3rd best on for me

Thinking about it more I see that game as :

• Guelfi had the more eye-catching game with his 3 goals, 9 Scoring Involvements. Also was his milestone 100th game and he did some weird celebrations. Sometimes when you do funny things on a football field, they tend to stand out.
• Jake Kelly had the most Intercepts
• McGrath had the most metres gained for Bombers. Decent metres gained per disposal.
• Caldwell equal most clearances with 9 and 9 scoring Involvements
• Ben McKay had a couple of contested marks which really stood out, 5 intercepts (which did seem low on inspection) and kept Larkey of all people to 1 goal. Laverde probably had the better game in defenders but think the umps go to a bigger name if defender choice was an option.

Dont think Caldwell is a lock for a vote but can understand now why people would go for him.

 

[burge13]

Thinking about it more I see that game as :

• Guelfi had the more eye-catching game with his 3 goals, 9 Scoring Involvements. Also was his milestone 100th game and he did some weird celebrations. Sometimes when you do funny things on a football field, they tend to stand out.
• Jake Kelly had the most Intercepts
• McGrath had the most metres gained for Bombers. Decent metres gained per disposal.
• Caldwell equal most clearances with 9 and 9 scoring Involvements
• Ben McKay had a couple of contested marks which really stood out, 5 intercepts (which did seem low on inspection) and kept Larkey of all people to 1 goal. Laverde probably had the better game in defenders but think the umps go to a bigger name if defender choice was an option.

Dont think Caldwell is a lock for a vote but can understand now why people would go for him.

Guelfi kicked 3, not 6. How many times do forwards with 3 goals get votes over midfielders with pretty good games?
Jake Kelly ever got a vote?
Ben McKay, how many times has a FB got votes in a 40 point win above midfielders and forwards. be very unlikely to feature IMO

Haven't watched the game, probably didn't even watch it at the time but votes are pretty consistent. Midfielders award...

 

[Sausage Legs]

Bombers defenders were all good, not something you usually say for them. Redman, McGrath, Nic Martin, Ben McKay, Laverde all good. Zurhaar and Larkey combined for 1 goal together. I see Caldwell polling votes in the season but just not this game. Merrett had a bad game and was tagged out by Liam Shiels. One of the comms (think it was Jordan Lewis) said Corr was Norths "best player by far"- which was wrong. Mayne he was 2nd best but definitely not best.



Redman and Kelly were leading the Intercepts- a leading indicator defenders. A defender could well snag the 1 vote here, as Redmans Metres Per Disposal was one of the higher ratios in the match. Looked at some trends for last years game for the first 151 games for the 3 votes. (still an ongoing model that I have created) Average Metres Gained was around 453 or so, at 16.31 metres gained per disposal. Nic Martin I dont think should be in calculation for votes as he was kicking the ball sideways and backwards a fair bit- much lower metreage per disposal at 12.15 metres per disposal.

McGrath had 492 metres gained, at 21.39 metres gained per disposal.

Doing zero research I feel metres gained isn't as big as u think it mite be for chazzy, titch, priddo, lach just to name a few

 

[Johanpetro]

Top 3/5/10/20 multi markets up on Sportsbet. Connor Rozee

1

Connor Rozee

Age

24

Ht

185cm

Wt

79kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.6

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.6

5star

CL

1.0

3star

D

12.8

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

5.3

3star

M

2.9

3star

T

2.4

3star

CL

1.6

4star

D

16.4

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

8.4

5star

M

4.2

4star

T

3.4

5star

CL

0.8

3star

$3 for top 20. Is $1.40 on tab. I’ve got him just making it, anyone else?

 

[stusubz]

Yeah Rozee looks to be good value in this market, $3 won't stay at that price for long you wouldn't think.

 

[stusubz]

Brayshaw, Walshy, Rozee combined top 20= $11.13 that's gotta be worth a look.

 

[stusubz]

I'm thinkin the TAB have released a few markets.... see where the money flows before formulating a plan for the group bets.
TAB and sportsbet's groups are usually slightly different. It will be interesting to see what market they put up this year, if you can snag a 4 or 5 leg multi in group bets it's usually over 300/1, gotta get on early though!

 

[stusubz]

funny enough.... group bets out on sportsbet... no multis though

 

[burge13]

These look semi obvious? Bont mostly