AFL 2024 Brownlow Medal

[balmainforever]

Anyone putting up winning or very unlucky losing bets after the count will be given a card.
Everyone has been warned.

 

[stusubz]

LDU had no real competition last year, scored the maximum 6 votes from their 2 wins, and an extra 7 in loosing games which were not totally expected.
Sheezel polling history is a little unknown, he has put up some great numbers this year, both have had 2 good games in 2 out of there 3 wins.
I’m leaning towards Sheezel although this is usually a cardinal sin without proven polling history.

 

[Johanpetro]

Can I ask what people have LDU vs Sheezel on?

I have LDU, trying to see how it’s $2 vs $2.. considering LDU polled really well last year

I have

LDU 10
Sheezel 9

 

[BOOYAH1987]

When can we multi most team votes on Sportsbet? Does anyone know when it allows you?

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

When can we multi most team votes on Sportsbet? Does anyone know when it allows you?

You can do it now on TAB

 

[Johanpetro]

Some player over/unders up on SB. Can’t multi at this stage

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Can I ask what people have LDU vs Sheezel on?

I have LDU, trying to see how it’s $2 vs $2.. considering LDU polled really well last year

Sheezel 14
LDU 12

Think both of them $2 is fair as I reckon it could go either way. Maybe slight edge to Sheezel as he had a pretty big back half of year when moving into the midfield but polling history a bit unknown as mentioned already.

 

[NYRB]

When can we multi most team votes on Sportsbet? Does anyone know when it allows you?

Dabble are allowing Multi of Team votes as well.

 

[BOOYAH1987]

Dabble are allowing Multi of Team votes as well.

A lot of there bet payouts are restricted, getting annoying lol

 

[NYRB]

The Cripps cheerleading in here is incredible.

Hopefully works out better than Heeney

To provide a bit of perspective, I tried to block out reading other peoples counts this year. I didnt cheer him on , nor cheer against him (for Cripps). I had an outright double winner AFL/Brownlow on Carlton/Cripps but nothing too serious on it. Cripps to be fair to me, wasnt my best outcome.

I just followed a few posts on the main round by round threads. Ill probably try to block out that outside 'noise' next season.

I have Cripps quoted at $1.90 to be Best On Ground in Round 0 in one of my research posted on here. And that game was a fairly difficult game to even consider him a lock for 3 votes. Ive seen a few tallies where alot haven't given Cripps 3 in Opening Round.

I have 4 other games where he is favourite for Best on Ground at $3.50+ in the 3 vote Markets. (there are a number of other games where he is shorter ) He is probably no lock to get the 3 votes in those games, if my odds from opening round are any indication.. Comparing him to Naicos, Naicos seemed to have more 'solid locks' in the 3 Vote Markets, games where I dont really want to oppose him in those markets, and being priced for the 3 Vote markets at around the $2-$3 range in all games. (about 6 games or so).

Im also going to imagine, it may be a few twists and turns in the in-play/live betting markets as they may be an angle to take in-play, if one or the two contenders gain votes/lose votes.

 

[Jugada]

Neale and Butters the players at the top of the market that represent overs for me

 

[Sausage Legs]

To provide a bit of perspective, I tried to block out reading other peoples counts this year. I didnt cheer him on , nor cheer against him (for Cripps). I had an outright double winner AFL/Brownlow on Carlton/Cripps but nothing too serious on it. Cripps to be fair to me, wasnt my best outcome.

I just followed a few posts on the main round by round threads. Ill probably try to block out that outside 'noise' next season.

I have Cripps quoted at $1.90 to be Best On Ground in Round 0 in one of my research posted on here. And that game was a fairly difficult game to even consider him a lock for 3 votes. Ive seen a few tallies where alot haven't given Cripps 3 in Opening Round.

I have 4 other games where he is favourite for Best on Ground at $3.50+ in the 3 vote Markets. (there are a number of other games where he is shorter ) He is probably no lock to get the 3 votes in those games, if my odds from opening round are any indication.. Comparing him to Naicos, Naicos seemed to have more 'solid locks' in the 3 Vote Markets, games where I dont really want to oppose him in those markets, and being priced for the 3 Vote markets at around the $2-$3 range in all games. (about 6 games or so).

Im also going to imagine, it may be a few twists and turns in the in-play/live betting markets as they may be an angle to take in-play, if one or the two contenders gain votes/lose votes.

So who's ya top 3

 

[BOOYAH1987]

Round 10
Essendon v North

Who do you guys have 3-2-1 here it’s so hard to pick.
I’ve gone with
3- Martin
2- LDU
1- Wright

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

To provide a bit of perspective, I tried to block out reading other peoples counts this year. I didnt cheer him on , nor cheer against him (for Cripps). I had an outright double winner AFL/Brownlow on Carlton/Cripps but nothing too serious on it. Cripps to be fair to me, wasnt my best outcome.

I just followed a few posts on the main round by round threads. Ill probably try to block out that outside 'noise' next season.

I have Cripps quoted at $1.90 to be Best On Ground in Round 0 in one of my research posted on here. And that game was a fairly difficult game to even consider him a lock for 3 votes. Ive seen a few tallies where alot haven't given Cripps 3 in Opening Round.

I have 4 other games where he is favourite for Best on Ground at $3.50+ in the 3 vote Markets. (there are a number of other games where he is shorter ) He is probably no lock to get the 3 votes in those games, if my odds from opening round are any indication.. Comparing him to Naicos, Naicos seemed to have more 'solid locks' in the 3 Vote Markets, games where I dont really want to oppose him in those markets, and being priced for the 3 Vote markets at around the $2-$3 range in all games. (about 6 games or so).

Im also going to imagine, it may be a few twists and turns in the in-play/live betting markets as they may be an angle to take in-play, if one or the two contenders gain votes/lose votes.

I think if Cripps gets votes in Rd 0 he wins by quite a comfortable margin.

Are there any odds for a player to break the votes record?

 

[Johanpetro]

I think if Cripps gets votes in Rd 0 he wins by quite a comfortable margin.

Are there any odds for a player to break the votes record?

Agreed. My plan is to have the finger on the trigger round 0 and if he polls 2+ slam it. My worry is Green and Heeney will poll first few rounds as well so might even get better odds after round 3.

And yeh there will be a record breaking market up eventually

 

[NYRB]

Round 10
Essendon v North

Who do you guys have 3-2-1 here it’s so hard to pick.
I’ve gone with
3- Martin
2- LDU
1- Wright

Did a template in R , and on initial inspection I went 3) LDU 2) Wright and 1) Guelfi. Attached my Markdown from R:




Its one of the tighter games to call. Might be worth a look again from my side.

LDU is favourite at $4.25 on my Markdown but there could be 7 contenders looking to poll votes for the 3,2,1 here.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Did a template in R , and on initial inspection I went 3) LDU 2) Wright and 1) Guelfi. Attached my Markdown from R:

View attachment 2096424


Its one of the tighter games to call. Might be worth a look again from my side.

LDU is favourite at $4.25 on my Markdown but there could be 7 contenders looking to poll votes for the 3,2,1 here.

Went to this game. Thought 2mp best

 

[sohohoho]

Did a template in R , and on initial inspection I went 3) LDU 2) Wright and 1) Guelfi. Attached my Markdown from R:

View attachment 2096424

are you modelling these predictions or doing it yourself

 

[Spooka]

I feel there’s some decent value in the teams this year - all these guys are 1-3 votes within each other on my count.

Serong / Brayshaw
Trelor / Bont
Yeo / Waterman
Balta / Richmond

I’ve had a play on all of them, got Brayshaw $16, Trelor $12, Waterman $12, Balta $41 all have come in a little, still think some value!

Anyone posting there counts soon?

 

[NYRB]

are you modelling these predictions or doing it yourself

Pretty much myself. I don’t copy other votes or get influenced by media. (I’d like to think so) I’m aware there are data scientists out there that have models that input key statistical KPIs. Dwelling into stats probably isn’t going to help in some cases. Gut feel, game situation more important than key statistical measures-at times. Hence, backing other players even at around 5s to get 3 votes has less appeal to me.

There was a thesis written by a PhD. The guy had a successful strike rate of predicting winners:

Building Your Own Brownlow Model

A quick guide

analysisofafl.netlify.app

In it he mentioned the variables which he believed influenced Brownlow votes being: disposals, Contested possessions, score involvements, super coach scores, intercepts, Score facilitation score and metres gain per disposal. Ive browsed their packages in the past and it might be something I look into in the future. Whilst I dont claim to have the same level of qualifications as him, i believe there are other measures one should look at too to counter a few of his points. Im gathering that the Betfair Browlow predictor models are possibly produced by him? (as he has links on page referencing site) He did use the AIC Method, a technique I studied at uni in my stats major. And on inspection, it looked like the model looked at every variable in the AFL game.

LDU probably based on margins alone in a 100% margins, is probably a slightly higher price to get the 3 votes in this match as I haven’t fully adjusted , using a 124% margin. An overround closer to 100% works out to be better for the backer than odds settor/sportsbook.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Zorko at 11.00 top 20 isn't the worst... he was racking it up on supercoach albeit at half back but maybe the umpires notice how well he kicks it out of there to set up the teammates up the ground.

betfair predictor has him 12ish but that could tilt up to 14-16 if things go his way.. prob need about 15-16 to reach top 20?

its crazy gawn is 2.50 for top 20 but Zorko is 11.00 lol! both have about same predicted votes on betfair and some here have Gawn as low as 8-9.. i'd be laying gawn top 20 if betfair release a market like that

 

[demon_fanatic]

Bont top 10 1.15 TAB seems nearly better than bank interest or at least a good multi leg if you can multi top 20 with other markets... predicted around 7th but could quite easily be top 5... a lotttttt would have to go wrong with underpolling and guys around him overpolling for him not to finish top 10... I've added Cameron top 20 $1.80 to my multi to get it up a bit in odds as just by the eye test he stood out a lot for Geelong and I am confident he polls to expectations or close.

CRIPPS TOP 3, DAICOS TOP 5, BONT TOP 10, GULDEN TOP 10, HEENEY TOP 10, NEALE TOP 10, CAMERON/NEWCOMBE/WARNER/TRELOAR TOP 20 pays 4.23. Bit worried on Newcombe but he has polled well in past and came home real well. started the season pretty bad but.. predicted at 19 so if he underpolls a tad hopefully still finds 16

 

[BOOYAH1987]

I’ve called Sportsbet to see when we will be allowed to multi team votes, head to heads, over under votes & the customer service rep said they aren’t allowing it this year.

I thought they usually let you do it a week or 2 before the night.

Anyone else know more? I feel as though he wasn’t sure himself.

 

[sohohoho]

Pretty much myself. I don’t copy other votes or get influenced by media. (I’d like to think so) I’m aware there are data scientists out there that have models that input key statistical KPIs. Dwelling into stats probably isn’t going to help in some cases. Gut feel, game situation more important than key statistical measures-at times. Hence, backing other players even at around 5s to get 3 votes has less appeal to me.

There are plenty of ways to go about it. Yours seemed quite in depth so thought it was algo based.

Modelling is fine but pure stats will never cut it, the best brownlow modellers use a combo of stats but also public voting systems to incorporate the human element you need also.


The main advantage of modelling it is you can produce probabilities better than just estimating them.

 

[sohohoho]

I’ve called Sportsbet to see when we will be allowed to multi team votes, head to heads, over under votes & the customer service rep said they aren’t allowing it this year.

I thought they usually let you do it a week or 2 before the night.

Anyone else know more? I feel as though he wasn’t sure himself.

It changes every year, will know when it happens.
Would be shocked if they do not.

 

[sohohoho]

its crazy gawn is 2.50 for top 20 but Zorko is 11.00 lol! both have about same predicted votes on betfair and some here have Gawn as low as 8-9.. i'd be laying gawn top 20 if betfair release a market like that

Wheelo ratings has Gawn 8 more than him.
Aware he is a ruck but for once their midfield has sucked this season, he's had a far more influential role.



Zorko is very volatile so that price is not bad