AFL 2024 Brownlow Medal

[Spooka]

Hey guys massive difference with JHF $3.75 25+ on Sportsbet and $21 on TAB.

Like I said on earlier post I have him on 22, but after last year could see him over polling by 3!

 

[Geeves Train]

Hey guys massive difference with JHF $3.75 25+ on Sportsbet and $21 on TAB.

Like I said on earlier post I have him on 22, but after last year could see him over polling by 3!

Cash out no good?

 

[NYRB]

For what it is worth, if you are still reviewing a round 3 game at this stage with a view to deciding a 1 vote, then I'd wonder if a) the time was worth it and b) whether the overall model might have flaws.

Model not perfect, I never claimed it to be. People asked for a bit of an opinion of the game, I provided it. If I lose someone coin on here following me, they do so at their discretion. It’s your money. Had issue with computers and it’s one of the games come end of the season I didn’t have odds compiled.

If I watch a game and reinforces what I had on first watch , it’s happy days. It doesn’t hurt to watch a game twice as I vaguely remember even a quarter of the games played this season.

That 1 vote could being the difference between Bont being Top 5, getting to 25+ votes (line for Bont is 24.5 votes) , winning Dogs votes , beating a certain player Head to Head. In my opinion, every vote counts.

 

[Thedeftouch]

AFL Rd 16 Brisbane v Melbourne

I originally had a clean sweep for Melbourne in a loss. But thinking about that, that cant be right in a loss.

Upon 2nd review I thought Josh Dunkley should be up in the votes in the narrow Brisbane win.

Brisbane had the better 2nd half with McCluggage kicking the winning goal.

Viney had the better metres per gain, most clearances, 10 scoring involvements.

Pickett had the eye-catching game with 5 goals. For a small forward he was very clean with his ball use all night. It wouldn't surprise me if he polled the 3 votes on the night. Has only polled one 3 voter in his career but that was for a goal haul of 6 votes.

Dunkley had a contested mark, 10 tackles, 10 scoring involvements.

Neale I dont think was better than the 4 players above, with him well held in that 1st half.

Try to watch that game without Jimmy Brayshaw commentary- its generally terrible and bias. Not sure what relation he had with the Viney family as former North Melbourne CEO but Brayshaw did a good job of swinging the 3 votes to Viney for me.


I had a look at a few variables (nine) which I think affect 2023 Brownlow voting, and surprisingly Metres per disposals or Metres seemed a significant factor. Feel like its a more important factor in todays footy than footy compared to 6-7 years ago. Players these days chip too much backwards, sideways and doesnt do damage or influence matches that much. I think thats on the back end of the umps minds too. Although in comparison to other measures its not as significant to: Goals, Intercepts, Disposals, Clearances, Scoring Involvements or a Contested mark though. Did something called an Ordinal Logistic Regression with about 9,500+ rows of data. (Read about it through eg ChewTheStat). A stat I believe is slightly overrated is the 'contested possession' when measuring performance. Thats just me though.

I actually think Neale is a solid chance of polling in this game and the votes could really go anywhere. Dunkley was best statistically but he doesn’t really stand out (if you look at his polling history he gets a high proportion of 1-vote games). Neale and McCluggage I think are the other Lions who could poll. I think Neale is the best prospect for the Lions in this game, he was probably the best player in the second half when the Lions made their comeback and he has a history of overpolling in the games where there is no clear standout.

Viney and Pickett are the candidates for Melbourne but I think the Lions players are definitely in the mix due to the second half comeback win.

Could easily see the 3-2-1 as Viney-Neale-Pickett or Neale-Viney-Dunkley, Pickett-Viney-Dunkley or a number of other combinations of the 5 players above.

 

[NYRB]

Dabble doing increments for Player Votes in Multi: 5+, 8+, 10+, 12+, 15+, 18+, 20+, 22+, 25+, 28+, 30+, 32+, 35+, 40+.

Most other sportsbooks Ive seen have mainly offered increments/multiples of 5 for Player Votes. (bar unders/overs) eg 10+, 15+, 20+, 25+, 30+ etc.

 

[invisible_]

Dabble doing increments for Player Votes in Multi: 5+, 8+, 10+, 12+, 15+, 18+, 20+, 22+, 25+, 28+, 30+, 32+, 35+, 40+.

Most other sportsbooks Ive seen have mainly offered increments/multiples of 5 for Player Votes. (bar unders/overs) eg 10+, 15+, 20+, 25+, 30+ etc.

Good find! Pity Dabble's odds for these markets are atrocious - hard to find a bet on there.

Wonder when sportsbet will release their BYO markets? Always fun each year

 

[NSWCROW]

I was at the Dogs vs WC game. Bont is polling, just looking at the stats doesn’t tell the story. His first half was actually influential even tho low possessions

I gave him the 1 that day
Had a mate doing votes concurrently and he plucked Bailey Williams for the 1 that day

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Model not perfect, I never claimed it to be. People asked for a bit of an opinion of the game, I provided it. If I lose someone coin on here following me, they do so at their discretion. It’s your money. Had issue with computers and it’s one of the games come end of the season I didn’t have odds compiled.

If I watch a game and reinforces what I had on first watch , it’s happy days. It doesn’t hurt to watch a game twice as I vaguely remember even a quarter of the games played this season.

That 1 vote could being the difference between Bont being Top 5, getting to 25+ votes (line for Bont is 24.5 votes) , winning Dogs votes , beating a certain player Head to Head. In my opinion, every vote counts.

Sensible to analyse Bontempelli at length.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Is brownlow cancelled this year

 

[Geeves Train]

Is brownlow cancelled this year

Cancelled next year after we go 18/18 teams

 

[Sausage Legs]

Cancelled next year after we go 18/18 teams

Send em packing. Biggest question is wot colour lambo

 

[Sausage Legs]

These players I have polling a vote or more. Prob slight unders on dabble but reckon good overs on tab. 3.35 on dabble. 17.78 on tab

 

[Billionaire Panda]

They implemented the $250 payout limit for the 'to poll 3 votes' markets but allow multi's of 'to poll a vote', with no limits. Seems like a much easier way for umps and their mates to circumvent the system tbh

 

[Johanpetro]

They implemented the $250 payout limit for the 'to poll 3 votes' markets but allow multi's of 'to poll a vote', with no limits. Seems like a much easier way for umps and their mates to circumvent the system tbh

Would be so easy to pull off as well compared to slamming a player to get 3 votes at massive odds.

“Hey mate Bailey Williams and Sam Taylor polled a vote in my games, $5.30 on the TAB”.

Head down to the local and slap a couple hundred on.

 

[Geeves Train]

Would be so easy to pull off as well compared to slamming a player to get 3 votes at massive odds.

“Hey mate Bailey Williams and Sam Taylor polled a vote in my games, $5.30 on the TAB”.

Head down to the local and slap a couple hundred on.

Was going to say the same, don’t even need to rig anything. Just look at prices and pick out the 2-3 you know got a vote in a solo game and Robert is your father’s brother!!

 

[invisible_]

To make top 10 (SB)
Butters $2.10
JHF $2.25

To win Port
Butters $1.20
JHF $6

Make it make sense

 

[Billionaire Panda]

To make top 10 (SB)
Butters $2.10
JHF $2.25

To win Port
Butters $1.20
JHF $6

Make it make sense

Lol yeah probably reflects the real uncertainty around Hornet in the market. Is $1.20 for 20+ when no public predictors that I can see have him over 19.5. Definitely has potential but I think the value has been sucked out in most places now. The 25+ went up 100:1 on him.

 

[Johanpetro]

Top 3
Cripps
Daicos

Top 5
Neale
Heeney

Top 10
Merrett
Serong

Top 20
Mcluggage
R Marshall

$12 Sportsbet


Also adding Merrett/Serong top 5 at $80

 

[Sausage Legs]

I like his 1.50 for top 20 on lads, to go with Rowell 1.6. Bray 1.65 on tab for multis also. Add crippa 30 plus for extra 20 percent

 

[invisible_]

Lol yeah probably reflects the real uncertainty around Hornet in the market. Is $1.20 for 20+ when no public predictors that I can see have him over 19.5. Definitely has potential but I think the value has been sucked out in most places now. The 25+ went up 100:1 on him.

What public predictors are you looking at? BYB, ESPN, Betfair, AFL.com... any others? Seems to be fewer manual counts and less general chat around brownlow this year. Wonder if bookies cleaning up last couple years have turned people off it

 

[invisible_]

Top 3
Cripps
Daicos

Top 5
Neale
Heeney

Top 10
Merrett
Serong

Top 20
Mcluggage
R Marshall

$12 Sportsbet


Also adding Merrett/Serong top 5 at $80

"adding merrett/serong top 5"... giving you 6 selections for top 5 in the same bet? Gonna need things to go VERY well for this multi to get up

 

[Johanpetro]

"adding merrett/serong top 5"... giving you 6 selections for top 5 in the same bet? Gonna need things to go VERY well for this multi to get up

Haha yes disregard that last comment. And just follow the first bet for guaranteed winnings

Edit: I don’t even have Serong top 5 that was a brain fart

 

[Billionaire Panda]

What public predictors are you looking at? BYB, ESPN, Betfair, AFL.com... any others? Seems to be fewer manual counts and less general chat around brownlow this year. Wonder if bookies cleaning up last couple years have turned people off it

Oh yeah BYB has Hornet 20.5 actually. Yeah those 4 + statsinsider, aflratings, and wheeloratings.

 

[sohohoho]

What public predictors are you looking at? BYB, ESPN, Betfair, AFL.com... any others? Seems to be fewer manual counts and less general chat around brownlow this year. Wonder if bookies cleaning up last couple years have turned people off it

There are more public models around now from people who don't bet. Wheelo, MOS, ChewtheStat

There is little to gain sharing brownlow counts though if you plan to bet on it though given markets continue to open up.

Would think most discussion is happening away from this thread from most in here

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Would think most discussion is happening away from this thread from most in here