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Cash out no good?Hey guys massive difference with JHF $3.75 25+ on Sportsbet and $21 on TAB.
Like I said on earlier post I have him on 22, but after last year could see him over polling by 3!
Model not perfect, I never claimed it to be. People asked for a bit of an opinion of the game, I provided it. If I lose someone coin on here following me, they do so at their discretion. It’s your money. Had issue with computers and it’s one of the games come end of the season I didn’t have odds compiled.For what it is worth, if you are still reviewing a round 3 game at this stage with a view to deciding a 1 vote, then I'd wonder if a) the time was worth it and b) whether the overall model might have flaws.
AFL Rd 16 Brisbane v Melbourne
I originally had a clean sweep for Melbourne in a loss. But thinking about that, that cant be right in a loss.
Upon 2nd review I thought Josh Dunkley should be up in the votes in the narrow Brisbane win.
Brisbane had the better 2nd half with McCluggage kicking the winning goal.
Viney had the better metres per gain, most clearances, 10 scoring involvements.
Pickett had the eye-catching game with 5 goals. For a small forward he was very clean with his ball use all night. It wouldn't surprise me if he polled the 3 votes on the night. Has only polled one 3 voter in his career but that was for a goal haul of 6 votes.
Dunkley had a contested mark, 10 tackles, 10 scoring involvements.
Neale I dont think was better than the 4 players above, with him well held in that 1st half.
Try to watch that game without Jimmy Brayshaw commentary- its generally terrible and bias. Not sure what relation he had with the Viney family as former North Melbourne CEO but Brayshaw did a good job of swinging the 3 votes to Viney for me.
I had a look at a few variables (nine) which I think affect 2023 Brownlow voting, and surprisingly Metres per disposals or Metres seemed a significant factor. Feel like its a more important factor in todays footy than footy compared to 6-7 years ago. Players these days chip too much backwards, sideways and doesnt do damage or influence matches that much. I think thats on the back end of the umps minds too. Although in comparison to other measures its not as significant to: Goals, Intercepts, Disposals, Clearances, Scoring Involvements or a Contested mark though. Did something called an Ordinal Logistic Regression with about 9,500+ rows of data. (Read about it through eg ChewTheStat). A stat I believe is slightly overrated is the 'contested possession' when measuring performance. Thats just me though.
Good find! Pity Dabble's odds for these markets are atrocious - hard to find a bet on there.Dabble doing increments for Player Votes in Multi: 5+, 8+, 10+, 12+, 15+, 18+, 20+, 22+, 25+, 28+, 30+, 32+, 35+, 40+.
Most other sportsbooks Ive seen have mainly offered increments/multiples of 5 for Player Votes. (bar unders/overs) eg 10+, 15+, 20+, 25+, 30+ etc.
I gave him the 1 that dayI was at the Dogs vs WC game. Bont is polling, just looking at the stats doesn’t tell the story. His first half was actually influential even tho low possessions
Sensible to analyse Bontempelli at length.Model not perfect, I never claimed it to be. People asked for a bit of an opinion of the game, I provided it. If I lose someone coin on here following me, they do so at their discretion. It’s your money. Had issue with computers and it’s one of the games come end of the season I didn’t have odds compiled.
If I watch a game and reinforces what I had on first watch , it’s happy days. It doesn’t hurt to watch a game twice as I vaguely remember even a quarter of the games played this season.
That 1 vote could being the difference between Bont being Top 5, getting to 25+ votes (line for Bont is 24.5 votes) , winning Dogs votes , beating a certain player Head to Head. In my opinion, every vote counts.
Is brownlow cancelled this year
Send em packing. Biggest question is wot colour lamboCancelled next year after we go 18/18 teams
They implemented the $250 payout limit for the 'to poll 3 votes' markets but allow multi's of 'to poll a vote', with no limits. Seems like a much easier way for umps and their mates to circumvent the system tbh
Would be so easy to pull off as well compared to slamming a player to get 3 votes at massive odds.
“Hey mate Bailey Williams and Sam Taylor polled a vote in my games, $5.30 on the TAB”.
Head down to the local and slap a couple hundred on.
Lol yeah probably reflects the real uncertainty around Hornet in the market. Is $1.20 for 20+ when no public predictors that I can see have him over 19.5. Definitely has potential but I think the value has been sucked out in most places now. The 25+ went up 100:1 on him.To make top 10 (SB)
Butters $2.10
JHF $2.25
To win Port
Butters $1.20
JHF $6
Make it make sense
What public predictors are you looking at? BYB, ESPN, Betfair, AFL.com... any others? Seems to be fewer manual counts and less general chat around brownlow this year. Wonder if bookies cleaning up last couple years have turned people off itLol yeah probably reflects the real uncertainty around Hornet in the market. Is $1.20 for 20+ when no public predictors that I can see have him over 19.5. Definitely has potential but I think the value has been sucked out in most places now. The 25+ went up 100:1 on him.
"adding merrett/serong top 5"... giving you 6 selections for top 5 in the same bet? Gonna need things to go VERY well for this multi to get upTop 3
Cripps
Daicos
Top 5
Neale
Heeney
Top 10
Merrett
Serong
Top 20
Mcluggage
R Marshall
$12 Sportsbet
Also adding Merrett/Serong top 5 at $80
"adding merrett/serong top 5"... giving you 6 selections for top 5 in the same bet? Gonna need things to go VERY well for this multi to get up
Oh yeah BYB has Hornet 20.5 actually. Yeah those 4 + statsinsider, aflratings, and wheeloratings.What public predictors are you looking at? BYB, ESPN, Betfair, AFL.com... any others? Seems to be fewer manual counts and less general chat around brownlow this year. Wonder if bookies cleaning up last couple years have turned people off it
There are more public models around now from people who don't bet. Wheelo, MOS, ChewtheStatWhat public predictors are you looking at? BYB, ESPN, Betfair, AFL.com... any others? Seems to be fewer manual counts and less general chat around brownlow this year. Wonder if bookies cleaning up last couple years have turned people off it
Would think most discussion is happening away from this thread from most in here