AFL 2024 Brownlow Medal

[balmainforever]

Anyone putting up winning or very unlucky losing bets after the count will be given a card.
Everyone has been warned.

 

[Johanpetro]

Few BYO Brownlow markets up on SB. Nothing great. Don’t mind Cripps to outpoll North at $5.50.

 

[bph25]

Top 3
Cripps
Daicos

Top 5
Neale
Heeney

Top 10
Merrett
Serong

Top 20
Mcluggage
R Marshall

$12 Sportsbet


Also adding Merrett/Serong top 5 at $80

Mcluggage and Marshall are two of the dangers to undervote I believe.
Could both miss top 20.
Mcluggage massively under polled last year and even max gawn in his best season polled 20

I can’t see Marshall getting close to that when he didn’t even make the top 3 rucks for the year.
I think Steele and Sinclair can both out poll him

 

[invisible_]

Dabble added some new players in the '5+ and 8+ votes' market
all for 5+: Grundy 1.08 x Daniher 1.1 x Blakey 1.20 x TDK 1.25 x Dale 1.6 = $2.86. Chuck a rocket on that and profit
Also like Blakey 8+ into Daniher 8+ at $5.41. Throw in Moore at 1.15 if you need a third leg for a rocket

 

[Geeves Train]

Dabble added some new players in the '5+ and 8+ votes' market
all for 5+: Grundy 1.08 x Daniher 1.1 x Blakey 1.20 x TDK 1.25 x Dale 1.6 = $2.86. Chuck a rocket on that and profit
Also like Blakey 8+ into Daniher 8+ at $5.41. Throw in Moore at 1.15 if you need a third leg for a rocket

Darcy Moore?

 

[Sausage Legs]

Retirement plan.
Tab team handicap multis.
Lachie Neale

9

Lachie Neale

Age

31

Ht

178cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.0

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

15.5

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.7

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

28.3

5star

K

13.9

5star

HB

14.4

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

7.4

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

should be 1.20
Jizz Cameron should be 1.70
Nuke
Kozzie Pickett (bet of day) should be 2s
Steelo
Heen should be 1.70
Oscar
Bont

Throw around some combos, sit back, profit

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Retirement plan.
Tab team handicap multis.
Lachie Neale should be 1.20
Jizz Cameron should be 1.70
Nuke
Kozzie Pickett (bet of day) should be 2s
Steelo
Heen should be 1.70
Oscar
Bont

Throw around some combos, sit back, profit

Yep Lach, Jezza, Kozzy best I reckon.

Also added Walsh, Nic Martin, Dusty, Telly, Heeney/Blakey and Bont/Dale to some combos

 

[Johanpetro]

Retirement plan.
Tab team handicap multis.
Lachie Neale should be 1.20
Jizz Cameron should be 1.70
Nuke
Kozzie Pickett (bet of day) should be 2s
Steelo
Heen should be 1.70
Oscar
Bont

Throw around some combos, sit back, profit

like it. What was Kozzie originally, $5 atm but looks like he was longer odds at some stage

 

[Sausage Legs]

like it. What was Kozzie originally, $5 atm but looks like he was longer odds at some stage

Not 100 percent sure mate, was at least 5.50 tho as wot I got. Have him winning by a couple.

 

[Gazza Guru]

Retirement plan.
Tab team handicap multis.
Lachie Neale should be 1.20
Jizz Cameron should be 1.70
Nuke
Kozzie Pickett (bet of day) should be 2s
Steelo
Heen should be 1.70
Oscar
Bont

Throw around some combos, sit back, profit

Neale to win Bris team handicap is the bet of the season and quite clearly. Should win that by 5-6 votes. I got the $2.60 and see he’s $2.20 now. I’m going to use him in some 2 and 3 leg multis as well

 

[Sausage Legs]

Neale to win Bris team handicap is the bet of the season and quite clearly. Should win that by 5-6 votes. I got the $2.60 and see he’s $2.20 now. I’m going to use him in some 2 and 3 leg multis as well

Yeah mite go again on them 2. Then a 3 legger. Lach, kozzie, jizza.

 

[Billionaire Panda]

I'm actually really disappointed this year with the handicaps. Something is so off. Normally they open everything at least $4-5+ , this time they've really favoured so many of the scratch players and opened them really short. Normally a good 3 leg multi would be 120:1+, now its ~20:1. It's almost like taking the player votes over/under market on those main guys.

 

[Gazza Guru]

I'm actually really disappointed this year with the handicaps. Something is so off. Normally they open everything at least $4-5+ , this time they've really favoured so many of the scratch players and opened them really short. Normally a good 3 leg multi would be 120:1+, now its ~20:1. It's almost like taking the player votes over/under market on those main guys.

Fair call and I remember them having about 7 or 8 options per club in the past and opening them all at $6. They sure did put the guys off scratch at much shorter prices vs other years when they put them up. Only justification would be if those guys aren’t giving as much of a head start to the others but it does appear that they are

 

[Mozza Mail]

Love Neale, Jezza and Koz. Membrey +14.5 at $9 is a good shout (hope steele doesn't poll R5) and Daniels +21.5 at $8. Tab trader has a favourite player in tom green

12

Tom Green

Age

23

Ht

192cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

3star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

5star

 

[Billionaire Panda]

What does everyone actually have Kosi on?

Seems to be 3-4 at best, polling in losses in round 16 and 22. That would take him to 15.5. So are we thinking Melbourne's top end is shaky just because it's Gawn? or Trac is no chance for 13?

Or does this go back to NYRB's r16 analysis and everyone's thinking Pickett does get the 3 there?

 

[Sausage Legs]

What does everyone actually have Kosi on?

Seems to be 3-4 at best, polling in losses in round 16 and 22. That would take him to 15.5. So are we thinking Melbourne's top end is shaky just because it's Gawn? or Trac is no chance for 13?

Or does this go back to NYRB's r16 analysis and everyone's thinking Pickett does get the 3 there?

Min 4, Max 6. Predicted 6. 17 is plenty enough on my count

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Min 4, Max 6. Predicted 6. 17 is plenty enough on my count

Just round 16 and 22 or other games too? Saw one predictor had him 1 in r17

 

[Sausage Legs]

Just round 16 and 22 or other games too? Saw one predictor had him 1 in r17

Went 3 in 16, 2 in 22, 1 in round 2 for 6.
Although 4 would would be enough on my count

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Yeah fair enough, 15 could indeed take it out and $5 is juicy enough

 

[Billionaire Panda]

I see Viney as the danger but it would all come down to round 16

 

[offthebusgus]

Be Trillionaire Panda once Kozi brings home the bickies

 

[Johanpetro]

Anyone else have Josh Kelly +18.5 handicap getting close/winning for GWS?

 

[FootyStar#1]

Hey amateur question here guys,

For the dead heat rule, if I was betting on the trifecta market and Daicos and Cripps were to draw on 33 votes and say 3rd place was 30 votes alone. Does that mean if a bet was paying $9 odds, it would end up being a $4.50 payout?

Or would the dead heat rule only apply if say the 3rd placegetter was equal on 30 votes with another player.

 

[showeringrn]

Neales odds went down a bit, can’t see that losing tbh. Love wines on the handicap as well for Port.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Sausage Legs]

Anyone else have Josh Kelly +18.5 handicap getting close/winning for GWS?

Have him equal tie with greene and daniels

 

[Sausage Legs]

Neales odds went down a bit, can’t see that losing tbh. Love wines on the handicap as well for Port.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Reckon it's as simple as if he polls 26 he wins. Hippy should bank 25.5