AFL 2024 Brownlow Medal

[demon_fanatic]

Don’t mind Will Day against Adelaide round 20. Was classy all game and kicked a great goal. 7’s @ 365. Let me on for $10.
JHF against Blues same round good value @ 11s.

agree.. both these guys are good chances.. Wines wasn't that dominant to be a 1.33 fav.. will day was 1st named as hawks best on afl.com.au too.. yes Mcdonald probably should be fav but Day does stand out even with only 20 touches

 

[NYRB]

Let me on for $10.
JHF against Blues same round good value @ 11s.

I didnt have JHF listed on my top 14 players in that game that day.

 

[dontlimitme]

I didnt have JHF listed on my top 14 players in that game that day.

 

[NYRB]

I love Horne-Francis but unless I was in la la land, my spreadsheet doesnt have him polling that day.

I havent checked bet365 odds as I back my own count but if they have Wines favourite- it makes sense from my side.

 

[Billionaire Panda]

I didnt have JHF listed on my top 14 players in that game that day.

Was very bad in the first half and very good in the second half

 

[demon_fanatic]

I love Horne-Francis but unless I was in la la land, my spreadsheet doesnt have him polling that day.

I havent checked bet365 odds as I back my own count but if they have Wines favourite- it makes sense from my side.

yes he probably won't get the 3 but given the talk about him being the smokey to overpoll and no real standouts in this game it wouldn't suprise me... to say there were 13 better chances at votes is just lunacy considering you have to rule out nearly every carlton player except curnow given their flat as a tack 2nd half..

 

[NYRB]

yes he probably won't get the 3 but given the talk about him being the smokey to overpoll and no real standouts in this game it wouldn't suprise me... to say there were 13 better chances at votes is just lunacy considering you have to rule out nearly every carlton player except curnow given their flat as a tack 2nd half..

Ill put it on review again. But you are right in the one fact that if Wines is $1.33 to get best of ground here, its too short. Id be wary of backing of anything under evens here.

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Kosi fans be eating this up

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Port v Hawks Rd 20. Hawks choked by a point yet top 3 are all Port players.

Hardwick @ 17s and Day @ 26s worth a punt?

 

[NonPhixion]

R14 Nick Daicos $3.5 looks good.
Bobby was good but cant see him getting 3 with only 6 touches to 3/4 time.. 29 & 2, 6 free kicks also looks nice.

 

[NYRB]

View attachment 2114979Kosi fans be eating this up

I dont think people would be losing too much sleep given they dont accept winning punters or large limits. (Im banned from there but there are some punters not allowed winning limits or capped considerably) Feel it might be a bit of bet365 way of throwing punters into a bit of chaos or frenzy.

 

[bulletride]

Port v Hawks Rd 20. Hawks choked by a point yet top 3 are all Port players.

Hardwick @ 17s and Day @ 26s worth a punt?

Good spot on Hardwick, $2.50 on Dabble although their odds are seemingly trash all round

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Good spot on Hardwick, $2.50 on Dabble although their odds are seemingly trash all round

Let me on for $3.91

 

[the_big_sav]

Sportsbet BYOB
Gulden and Serong beat Rich and WC @ 6.50
Heeney and Warner beat Rich and WC @ 7

Crazy overs right?

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Their over/under line on Rich and WCE is 22.5 and 30.5 (53)
Their over/under line on Gulden and Serong is 22.5 and 23.5 (46)
For Heeney and Warner it's 26.5 and 19.5 (46)

Are you thinking Rich and WCE are much lower?

 

[the_big_sav]

Their over/under line on Rich and WCE is 22.5 and 30.5 (53)
Their over/under line on Gulden and Serong is 22.5 and 23.5 (46)
For Heeney and Warner it's 26.5 and 19.5 (46)

Are you thinking Rich and WCE are much lower?

Didn't think Rich and WC would be that high

My bad, play on

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Didn't think Rich and WC would be that high

My bad, play on

Seen a few counts with Tigers below 20 and Eagles around 28. If that were the case then it's not bad if those guys overpoll a fraction, and $6-7 wouldn't be the worst odds for it

 

[Sausage Legs]

View attachment 2114979Kosi fans be eating this up

Still 9s on 365. 2.25 on dabble. Hard to move something when they let ya on for 2 bucks I guess

 

[Sausage Legs]

Jayden short

15

Jayden Short

Age

28

Ht

178cm

Wt

75kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.4

4star

K

13.3

5star

HB

4.1

3star

M

4.3

4star

T

1.5

3star

MG

430.8

5star

D

19.0

4star

K

14.1

5star

HB

4.9

3star

M

6.3

5star

T

0.8

1star

MG

447.1

5star

D

7.8

2star

K

6.4

3star

HB

1.4

2star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.4

4star

MG

185.2

3star

was 1.80 or so to poll the 3 v crows. If he does, with his handicap of 2.5. No one is polling 6 to beat him. 8 bucks

 

[Spooka]

Jayden short was 1.80 or so to poll the 3 v crows. If he does, with his handicap of 2.5. No one is polling 6 to beat him. 8 bucks

Find it extremely odd that balta isn’t in the market, I have him polling round 1 and 13..

 

[Johanpetro]

Their over/under line on Rich and WCE is 22.5 and 30.5 (53)
Their over/under line on Gulden and Serong is 22.5 and 23.5 (46)
For Heeney and Warner it's 26.5 and 19.5 (46)

Are you thinking Rich and WCE are much lower?

I’ve got gulden/serong clearing wce/rich by a vote or 2. I’ll take the $6.50 I think Serong goes over the 22.5 pretty easily

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Been staring at these handicaps for 3 days straight. My thoughts on some of them so far:

Brisbane
Neale really should be getting this on ratings. They handicapped it to around 26 votes which is seemingly a real minimum for Neale on most predictors. His line is 27.5. He’d probably need 27 to make a certainty of this with one of McCluggage or Dunkley possible to overpoll their marks. Those 2 have ~4 games where they’re a chance to poll in the same game so if one consistently gets favoured over the other it could force Neale to require a higher mark. Most of the value is gone now but I think $1.70+ is not unders.


Carlton
Really looks a race in 2 between Cripps and Walsh. At the prices Walsh is a bit better, should force Cripps to require 33+, in which case may as well take Cripps outright. Really hard to see the others getting into it. I like TDK to get 10+ as a value play but much rather take that on SB at $14 instead of the 10’s here in the handicap.


Essendon
Merrett initially was quite good value. As I said earlier he’s $2.25 for 25+ and $2.40 here. You’d really be hoping he gets 25+ for this handicap. Looking at the 3-vote odds at b365, Martin is just about rated to get 16 votes. Is $2.45 for 15+. This could force Merrett to go 27+ in which case these odds are real average. Have seen some predictors with Caldwell as high as 11 as well. Starting to look uncertain here.

Fremantle
Ordinarily would have loved Serong here as he’s the one guy that can really clear this mark on potential. This price is real hard but. Handicap seems to be rated around 25. His over/under is 23.5 and he’s actually fave to go under. He’s $2.50 for 25+ much rather take that than play the same odds here. Brayshaw could crack 20. Luke Ryan is a real unknown, for some odd reason has shown capability to poll real well when he gets high touches. Some like Clark to get 10 votes. Could force Serong to get 26-27+ so can’t really entertain these odds.

Gold Coast
Really wish Rowell was given 5.5. Anderson likely needs 22+ here. Flanders is ~$3 to get 15+. Miller is a chance for 8-9. Mac Andrew and Ben King

34

Ben King

Age

24

Ht

202cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

2.2

2star

M

3.5

4star

T

0.5

3star

G

1.3

5star

D

7.5

2star

K

5.6

2star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.3

1star

G

1.5

5star

D

6.8

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

2.4

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

0.2

3star

G

1.0

4star

could both get around 4. Really depends on what you think Anderson is getting to. I was really liking him until round 18 but then did nothing in the final 6 games like last year and cost himself a chance at winning it. I think at these odds he’s still worth it for now. Should get 21 and he’s a chance in r17 v Roos. Thought he would have gotten the 3 there if they won. Chance in r20 and r24 to sneak a vote or 2. If you think Gold Coast votes are lower in general then Mac Andrew and King are good plays too.

GWS
Real fascinating one this. If I posted my GWS and Port counts you’d think I was a mad man. This seems to be rated to 26+. Green’s over/under is 21.5 and he’s fave to go under in that market. So comparatively it’s hard to take Green on those odds. Problem is, Green could deadset be on anything. If you’re certain he goes unders, Hogan should have a hard 14+. Callaghan would probably get Green’s votes in r20 v Demons, and a chance again in r22 lions and should get 2 in r7. Also got Kelly a chance to poll around 7 across 5 games so $13 would be good. Just don’t know how anyone can be certain on Green but.

Geelong
Really like Jezza here. $2.50 isn’t bad. Was hoping Holmes would be given 3.5 but 1.5 just doesn’t look that threatening. Some strange things happened last year when his 25 touch 6 goal performance netted 1 vote, so wouldn’t say it's a certainty as he doesn’t have too many backup games. Maybe $2.10 is the lowest I’d take.

Melbourne
Probably need 16 here. 15 is possible too. So much uncertainty around Kosi’s votes makes it difficult. 2 huge games come in losses. R16 there’s McCluggae, Dunkley, Neale, Viney and Kosi in the mix. Andrew Stephens umpiring fwiw. R22 v Port he was enormous but so was JHF, Butters and Gawn. Probably 2 other games where he’s a half chance for 1. B365 odds suggest Trac can get 13 and I know a few on here would agree. That would take it to 16.5. Can’t completely rule Oliver out of it although it’s an outside chance. The one I like is Viney.

Would need a bit of luck but has the pathway to cross 10 votes. 10+ is $6 on SB so could take that, but 8 or 9 could be competitive in this handicap too. Was THE overpolling king of last year's count. Bit of an open handicap.

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Been staring at these handicaps for 3 days straight. My thoughts on some of them so far:

Brisbane
Neale really should be getting this on ratings. They handicapped it to around 26 votes which is seemingly a real minimum for Neale on most predictors. His line is 27.5. He’d probably need 27 to make a certainty of this with one of McCluggage or Dunkley possible to overpoll their marks. Those 2 have ~4 games where they’re a chance to poll in the same game so if one consistently gets favoured over the other it could force Neale to require a higher mark. Most of the value is gone now but I think $1.70+ is not unders.


Carlton
Really looks a race in 2 between Cripps and Walsh. At the prices Walsh is a bit better, should force Cripps to require 33+, in which case may as well take Cripps outright. Really hard to see the others getting into it. I like TDK to get 10+ as a value play but much rather take that on SB at $14 instead of the 10’s here in the handicap.


Essendon
Merrett initially was quite good value. As I said earlier he’s $2.25 for 25+ and $2.40 here. You’d really be hoping he gets 25+ for this handicap. Looking at the 3-vote odds at b365, Martin is just about rated to get 16 votes. Is $2.45 for 15+. This could force Merrett to go 27+ in which case these odds are real average. Have seen some predictors with Caldwell as high as 11 as well. Starting to look uncertain here.

Fremantle
Ordinarily would have loved Serong here as he’s the one guy that can really clear this mark on potential. This price is real hard but. Handicap seems to be rated around 25. His over/under is 23.5 and he’s actually fave to go under. He’s $2.50 for 25+ much rather take that than play the same odds here. Brayshaw could crack 20. Luke Ryan is a real unknown, for some odd reason has shown capability to poll real well when he gets high touches. Some like Clark to get 10 votes. Could force Serong to get 26-27+ so can’t really entertain these odds.

Gold Coast
Really wish Rowell was given 5.5. Anderson likely needs 22+ here. Flanders is ~$3 to get 15+. Miller is a chance for 8-9. Mac Andrew and Ben King could both get around 4. Really depends on what you think Anderson is getting to. I was really liking him until round 18 but then did nothing in the final 6 games like last year and cost himself a chance at winning it. I think at these odds he’s still worth it for now. Should get 21 and he’s a chance in r17 v Roos. Thought he would have gotten the 3 there if they won. Chance in r20 and r24 to sneak a vote or 2. If you think Gold Coast votes are lower in general then Mac Andrew and King are good plays too.

GWS
Real fascinating one this. If I posted my GWS and Port counts you’d think I was a mad man. This seems to be rated to 26+. Green’s over/under is 21.5 and he’s fave to go under in that market. So comparatively it’s hard to take Green on those odds. Problem is, Green could deadset be on anything. If you’re certain he goes unders, Hogan should have a hard 14+. Callaghan would probably get Green’s votes in r20 v Demons, and a chance again in r22 lions and should get 2 in r7. Also got Kelly a chance to poll around 7 across 5 games so $13 would be good. Just don’t know how anyone can be certain on Green but.

Geelong
Really like Jezza here. $2.50 isn’t bad. Was hoping Holmes would be given 3.5 but 1.5 just doesn’t look that threatening. Some strange things happened last year when his 25 touch 6 goal performance netted 1 vote, so wouldn’t say it's a certainty as he doesn’t have too many backup games. Maybe $2.10 is the lowest I’d take.

Melbourne
Probably need 16 here. 15 is possible too. So much uncertainty around Kosi’s votes makes it difficult. 2 huge games come in losses. R16 there’s McCluggae, Dunkley, Neale, Viney and Kosi in the mix. Andrew Stephens umpiring fwiw. R22 v Port he was enormous but so was JHF, Butters and Gawn. Probably 2 other games where he’s a half chance for 1. B365 odds suggest Trac can get 13 and I know a few on here would agree. That would take it to 16.5. Can’t completely rule Oliver out of it although it’s an outside chance. The one I like is Viney.

Would need a bit of luck but has the pathway to cross 10 votes. 10+ is $6 on SB so could take that, but 8 or 9 could be competitive in this handicap too. Was THE overpolling king of last year's count. Bit of an open handicap.

What do your GWS and Port counts look like?

 

[Spooka]

Been staring at these handicaps for 3 days straight. My thoughts on some of them so far:

Brisbane
Neale really should be getting this on ratings. They handicapped it to around 26 votes which is seemingly a real minimum for Neale on most predictors. His line is 27.5. He’d probably need 27 to make a certainty of this with one of McCluggage or Dunkley possible to overpoll their marks. Those 2 have ~4 games where they’re a chance to poll in the same game so if one consistently gets favoured over the other it could force Neale to require a higher mark. Most of the value is gone now but I think $1.70+ is not unders.


Carlton
Really looks a race in 2 between Cripps and Walsh. At the prices Walsh is a bit better, should force Cripps to require 33+, in which case may as well take Cripps outright. Really hard to see the others getting into it. I like TDK to get 10+ as a value play but much rather take that on SB at $14 instead of the 10’s here in the handicap.


Essendon
Merrett initially was quite good value. As I said earlier he’s $2.25 for 25+ and $2.40 here. You’d really be hoping he gets 25+ for this handicap. Looking at the 3-vote odds at b365, Martin is just about rated to get 16 votes. Is $2.45 for 15+. This could force Merrett to go 27+ in which case these odds are real average. Have seen some predictors with Caldwell as high as 11 as well. Starting to look uncertain here.

Fremantle
Ordinarily would have loved Serong here as he’s the one guy that can really clear this mark on potential. This price is real hard but. Handicap seems to be rated around 25. His over/under is 23.5 and he’s actually fave to go under. He’s $2.50 for 25+ much rather take that than play the same odds here. Brayshaw could crack 20. Luke Ryan is a real unknown, for some odd reason has shown capability to poll real well when he gets high touches. Some like Clark to get 10 votes. Could force Serong to get 26-27+ so can’t really entertain these odds.

Gold Coast
Really wish Rowell was given 5.5. Anderson likely needs 22+ here. Flanders is ~$3 to get 15+. Miller is a chance for 8-9. Mac Andrew and Ben King could both get around 4. Really depends on what you think Anderson is getting to. I was really liking him until round 18 but then did nothing in the final 6 games like last year and cost himself a chance at winning it. I think at these odds he’s still worth it for now. Should get 21 and he’s a chance in r17 v Roos. Thought he would have gotten the 3 there if they won. Chance in r20 and r24 to sneak a vote or 2. If you think Gold Coast votes are lower in general then Mac Andrew and King are good plays too.

GWS
Real fascinating one this. If I posted my GWS and Port counts you’d think I was a mad man. This seems to be rated to 26+. Green’s over/under is 21.5 and he’s fave to go under in that market. So comparatively it’s hard to take Green on those odds. Problem is, Green could deadset be on anything. If you’re certain he goes unders, Hogan should have a hard 14+. Callaghan would probably get Green’s votes in r20 v Demons, and a chance again in r22 lions and should get 2 in r7. Also got Kelly a chance to poll around 7 across 5 games so $13 would be good. Just don’t know how anyone can be certain on Green but.

Geelong
Really like Jezza here. $2.50 isn’t bad. Was hoping Holmes would be given 3.5 but 1.5 just doesn’t look that threatening. Some strange things happened last year when his 25 touch 6 goal performance netted 1 vote, so wouldn’t say it's a certainty as he doesn’t have too many backup games. Maybe $2.10 is the lowest I’d take.

Melbourne
Probably need 16 here. 15 is possible too. So much uncertainty around Kosi’s votes makes it difficult. 2 huge games come in losses. R16 there’s McCluggae, Dunkley, Neale, Viney and Kosi in the mix. Andrew Stephens umpiring fwiw. R22 v Port he was enormous but so was JHF, Butters and Gawn. Probably 2 other games where he’s a half chance for 1. B365 odds suggest Trac can get 13 and I know a few on here would agree. That would take it to 16.5. Can’t completely rule Oliver out of it although it’s an outside chance. The one I like is Viney.

Would need a bit of luck but has the pathway to cross 10 votes. 10+ is $6 on SB so could take that, but 8 or 9 could be competitive in this handicap too. Was THE overpolling king of last year's count. Bit of an open handicap.

Assuming you have Tom green really high or Whitfield?

 

[Mozza Mail]

Sportsbet not doing their 3 vote markets this year what a bloody joke