AFL 2024 Brownlow Medal

[balmainforever]

Anyone putting up winning or very unlucky losing bets after the count will be given a card.
Everyone has been warned.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Rd 13, injured and subbed 3rd quarter and still polls a vote



Umpires have no idea and vote for players they know. How can you have any confidence betting on this thing.

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

I think the best way to describe how this went is that gif.. sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe shit.

Tom Green

12

Tom Green

Age

23

Ht

192cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

3star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

5star

, Nuke Overs and Bont unders were nice.

Neale getting ass ****ed was a major downer. I took far too many stupid prop bets just to make it interesting otherwise it was fun. Massive thanks to all you degens and your hard work on this thread, It is appreciated, and to those asshats that feel the need to DM people when their bets don't get up can just go and get ****ed.

Calling it now Neale for NS just to make myself feel better.

 

[NYRB]

Thank you very good. Would anyone have the odds of each as well to put into that spreadsheet? Think it will be very handy to look at again for next years count too

Refer to page 23 of this thread, I posted the odds of the time a day after odds were released.

 

[pendlebury_10]

Possibly the worst count in memory, the way the umpires are voting has significantly changed over the years.

Might be time to actually hand them stats after the game to at least somewhat quantify their initial thoughts.

If you look back at the 2003 count for instance, we had three players tying on 22 votes. In 2024, 13 players achieved this mark, with Cripps obviously polling more than double.

 

[roospur]

Can someone check on roospur?

I hope they're OK.

All good here mate. Good call.

 

[NYRB]

Odds, handicap in one table:







Few interesting stats of the 8 scratch winners, eg players starting at +0 . The average odds was: $3.01.

Favourites or equal favourites, won 11 of those 18 groups. The surprise for me in those handicaps was Papley getting up, personally dont think he has that great a season. I had him polling 0 votes.

Neales line pre-count was 26.5 votes, so can understand the logic of people backing him in the handicaps to cover, if they thought he would go over. Understand his price shortened to $1.80 .

 

[Pinnell]

Help me out please?
Who polled in the most games?

 

[freo_leo29]

Help me out please?
Who polled in the most games?

Daicos in 18 games

Per wheelo

 

[NYRB]

Odds, handicap in one table:

View attachment 2120040

View attachment 2120041

View attachment 2120042

Few interesting stats of the 8 scratch winners, eg players starting at +0 . The average odds was: $3.01.

Favourites or equal favourites, won 11 of those 18 groups. The surprise for me in those handicaps was Papley getting up, personally dont think he has that great a season. I had him polling 0 votes.

Neales line pre-count was 26.5 votes, so can understand the logic of people backing him in the handicaps to cover, if they thought he would go over. Understand his price shortened to $1.80 .

Correction Neales line was Under/Over 27.5 Votes. The magical number for Neale to clear that group was 27 but think alot of people backing Brisbane in the Team handicap were looking safer at 28 or more. So from that respect, he underpolled. Didnt see too many counts having him under 25, let alone 22. And if so, Id be very keen to see their tallies.

Am assuming weight of money, pushed Bonts line up from 24.5 to 25.5 votes about 2-3 days before the count.

Also not sure if its me but from the time of the end of the regular season , Round 24 , to the actual Count, that 3 week gap, the team vote leaders odds usually come in a bit. I think of Gawn, Bont..... those ended up losing.


And a bit of a reflection on Heeney votes, there may have been a bit of a 'lag factor' as he didnt poll so well in the early rounds but then picked up votes in games in a game later in the season where I didnt expect. Which makes me think umpires do keep up with news gossips, Fantasy, possibly Supercoach, media etc. If not, it would be very difficult to ignore.

 

[ash_1050]

May get in trouble for leaking this but f**k it, here's a photo of the poster hanging in the umpires change rooms:

 

[HTPunter]

Did Andrews play on either of Curnow or McKay round 0? That combo getting 1/2/3 seems hilarious

 

[HTPunter]

Correction Neales line was Under/Over 27.5 Votes. The magical number for Neale to clear that group was 27 but think alot of people backing Brisbane in the Team handicap were looking safer at 28 or more. So from that respect, he underpolled. Didnt see too many counts having him under 25, let alone 22. And if so, Id be very keen to see their tallies.

Am assuming weight of money, pushed Bonts line up from 24.5 to 25.5 votes about 2-3 days before the count.

Also not sure if its me but from the time of the end of the regular season , Round 24 , to the actual Count, that 3 week gap, the team vote leaders odds usually come in a bit. I think of Gawn, Bont..... those ended up losing.


And a bit of a reflection on Heeney votes, there may have been a bit of a 'lag factor' as he didnt poll so well in the early rounds but then picked up votes in games in a game later in the season where I didnt expect. Which makes me think umpires do keep up with news gossips, Fantasy, possibly Supercoach, media etc. If not, it would be very difficult to ignore.

Yes the Bont line was always no where near the winners - moved a vote late but he was always expected 7-8 under Neale/Naicos/Cripps.

That’s why I can’t believe people are melting so hard about someone saying they’ve been told Bont won’t be the winner - pretty much all counts had him well off the pace, only the non-counts people who look at the season in its entirety were saying yeah look he could win, but they hadn’t actually gone game by game.
kaiserchief13

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Possibly the worst count in memory, the way the umpires are voting has significantly changed over the years.

Might be time to actually hand them stats after the game to at least somewhat quantify their initial thoughts.

If you look back at the 2003 count for instance, we had three players tying on 22 votes. In 2024, 13 players achieved this mark, with Cripps obviously polling more than double.

Yep its fairly obvious that the voting has changed from earlier years but that just means there's more value out there outside of the 1.30 pops, just need to learn to adjust/adapt and bet accordingly. Still money to be made, hope everyone had a good night.

 

[HTPunter]

Possibly the worst count in memory, the way the umpires are voting has significantly changed over the years.

Might be time to actually hand them stats after the game to at least somewhat quantify their initial thoughts.

If you look back at the 2003 count for instance, we had three players tying on 22 votes. In 2024, 13 players achieved this mark, with Cripps obviously polling more than double.

8 of the top 10 of all time vote getters have been largely 2003 onwards. Extend that out to 15 of the top 17.

Neale, Cripps & Bont should all overtake Dempsey on adjusted votes & Harvey by the end of their careers and the top category will be

GAJ, Dangerfield, the 3 above, S.Mitchell, Pendlebury (Dempsey), Selwood, maybe then Dusty if he plays on…